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Why the Steelers should pull the trigger on a Brandon Aiyuk trade
On Wednesday, the NFL’s transaction catalog suddenly spiked after a brief stint of dormancy. The Houston Texans acquired Buffalo Bills star receiver Stefon Diggs for a 2025 second-round pick, a move with seismic implications not only for the 2024 NFL Draft, but also for the upcoming few years of AFC supremacy.
Diggs joined the likes of Keenan Allen, Diontae Johnson and Jerry Jeudy as receivers to find new homes via trade already in the last three months. But the former Viking and Bill is almost definitely not the last.
Even though the receiver free agent market and trade carousel has been rather depleted, one gem remains especially uncut: the San Francisco 49ers’ Brandon Aiyuk.
Just 26, Aiyuk has been vocal in expressing his disappointment about not having yet received a lucrative extension, as his rookie deal will expire after 2024. It’s easy to see why: the Arizona State product has posted 153 catches for 2,357 yards and 15 touchdowns in the last two years, all while splitting targets with fellow elite players Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Additionally, Aiyuk is arguably the best blocking receiver in football, as evidenced by his 91.5 PFF blocking grade a season ago.
Presently, San Francisco’s brass seems to want to keep Aiyuk in scarlet red and gold. GM John Lynch indicated to reporters at the league’s owners meetings that Aiyuk is not being shopped. But the standout receiver hasn’t been shy in sharing his displeasure with the team’s executives, including making an appearance on Shannon Sharpe’s and Chad Johnson’s “Nightcap” show to explain what he’s seeking in a deal.
As has become crystallized in the last few years of the NFL, though, directions and attitudes can change in an instant. Consequently, the Steelers and general manager Omar Khan should do everything in their power to sway Lynch & Co. to deal Aiyuk — particularly to Pittsburgh.
Subsequent to trading Johnson, the Steelers’ receiver room currently features these names: George Pickens, Van Jefferson, Quez Watkins and Calvin Austin III. Only one of those players, Pickens, has proven to be anything close to an above-average wideout; even then, he’s much more of a vertical threat and excellent on contested catches, as opposed to a well-rounded receiver. If Pittsburgh enters a new season with that caliber of weaponry, it can’t expect many secondaries to be intimidated — nor would it make much sense after completely overhauling its quarterback room.
With the ability to win whether in the slot or on the outside, plus with top-tier physicality and blocking, Aiyuk is pretty much a picture-perfect fit in the Steelers’ offense. His repertoire would complement Pickens very well, enabling the third-year wideout to remain a premier X receiver and go ball threat, while Aiyuk would run more in-breaking and finesse routes.
Of course, a trade for Aiyuk would not be cheap in any sense of the word. Considering Diggs just fetched a second-round pick at 30 years old and in the third year of a four-year, $96 million deal (which was later voided), Aiyuk would probably cost just as much, if not a first-round pick. Then, his new team would be expected to award him an even more lucrative extension. Given his age and top-echelon production, I’d project it around five years, $135 million; that $27 million AAV would put him third in football, and ahead of Brown at $25 million/year. There’s a good probability that deal would age very well beyond 2024, too.
In light of the fact that the Steelers had no (publicly known) interest in Diggs, not to mention Allen — who went for just a fourth-rounder — it might be improbable to expect them to shift gears for Aiyuk. After all, the team has only traded its first-rounder for an outside player once, and that was to acquire Minkah Fitzpatrick in 2019. Even with a new regime in Khan and Andy Weidl, that principle seems unlikely to have changed with Art Rooney at the helm. Then again, Khan jumped up three spots to land Broderick Jones last year, and his overall philosophy seems much more fluid and aggressive than Kevin Colbert’s.
Beyond that, the Steelers need a whole lot more than just another receiver. There are truly zero starting-caliber centers on the roster, and with options bare in free agency, one of the team’s top-three picks figures to be at that position, if not earlier. The same applies for cornerback — both outside and slot — even after adding Donte Jackson, plus offensive tackle, defensive line and safety. In other words, it might not make the most sense to forego a lot of capital right now for the sake of landing Aiyuk.
Two critical counterpoints, though. For one, the Steelers could effectively delay their package sent to the 49ers, much as Houston did with Buffalo. Coughing up a 2025 first is still a tremendous cost, but that hedging would enable Pittsburgh to go as all-in on 2024 as possible and then reconvene. That 2025 1 shouldn’t be expected to be in the top 10 picks, either.
Most important is this fundamental idea: no receiver taken at No. 20 overall would be nearly as good as Aiyuk is right now, and probably not for the next two years, let alone ever. Landing a player like Texas’ Adonai Mitchell would allow the Steelers to choose the cheaper and younger option with much more control, which aligns with their offensive frugality and youth. At the same time, Mike Tomlin would be asking that rookie wideout to shoulder a lot right away, which probably isn’t ideal in an offense trying to determine its identity. Nor would it be fair to expect Mitchell or someone else to completely replace Johnson’s production this upcoming year.
The macro lens has to be considered, too. The Steelers have the unique ability to acquire a do-it-all, top-10 receiver — still very much in his prime — and opportunities like that are slim to none. Waiting another year when the team has much more clarity under center is nice in principle, but not how the rapid pace of NFL transactions tend to operate.
By trading for Aiyuk, Pittsburgh wouldn’t just establish an elite 1-2 punch in Aiyuk and Pickens. The team would also indicate that it’s aiming to contend right now in an AFC with no shortage of leviathans. Even at a steep price, a player like Aiyuk is an organizationally altering move and one that would raise the Steelers’ floor, elongating the team’s playoff window and creating the best possible situation for no matter what happens at quarterback in 2025.
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