While Juan Soto is certainly the biggest free agent name on the market, it’s becoming increasingly likely that the top name on the trade market in star third baseman Nolan Arenado.

The St. Louis Cardinals are obviously transitioning into a pseudo-rebuild. Since acquiring Arenado in 2021 after his public spat with the Colorado Rockies, the Cardinals have made it to playoffs twice and won a total of zero games. Money has been mostly tied up in aging veterans and after disappointing years in 2023 and 2024 are looking to shed payroll and readjust for the future. It was reported early in in the offseason that the team had approached several players about their trade clauses with Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray both expressing a desire to stay with the team. Meanwhile, Arenado has seemed more than willing to waive his no-trade clause and once again be on the move to a team with the hopes of winning.

It’s understandable why the Cardinals would want to move on from the money owed to some of these players. Arenado is owed $74 million over the next three seasons, with $10 million being paid by the Rockies over the next two seasons. That’s a hefty chunk of change to spend on a player entering his age-34 season. The Cardinals hoping to bring younger players to the roster would be motivated to move Arenado, even if they would have to take on some of the money in the remaining deal to get something done.

For Arenado it’s another chance to move to a contending team with the hopes of winning that elusive World Series title. In his 12-year career, Arenado has been to the playoffs just four times, winning just a single game in that time while also struggling at the plate himself. Still, that doesn’t diminish the fact he is a 10-time Gold Glove winner at third base, a six-time Platinum Glove winner, a five-time Silver Slugger and an eight-time All-Star.

2024 was certainly not his best season as he slashed .272/.325/.394 in 152 games while slugging just 16 home runs, failing to reach 20 long balls for the first time in a full season since he hit 18 in 2014. Still, he has showcased his durability and defensive excellence at third base while remaining a quality at-bat in the lineup.

In order to make himself a more attractive trade target, Arenado has also expressed interest in moving to first base or, at the very least, spending less time at the hot corner to provide some flexibility for the receiving team. While it’s hard to imagine Arenado not playing third base given his pedigree and where a majority of his value comes from, it’s definitely an enticing prospect for him as a player given his age. Still, The Athletics’ Katie Woo reports that Arenado would only accept a trade to a contending team.

So where could he end up?

As a California native who grew up a fan of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Arenado made some waves on social media over the weekend. In an Instagram post of pictures with his family, Arenado curiously used a Kendrick Lamar song titled dodger blue on the post. This fanned the flames of speculation that Arenado was looking to head to the defending World Champions.

The Dodgers could certainly aim to add Arenado to their super team since money is no object. Arenado would be an instant upgrade defensively at third place over Max Muncy and Chris Taylor or some other player they could bring in. Arenado’s versatility intentions likely wouldn’t be as needed since Freddie Freeman is locked in at first base for the next three seasons and Shohei Ohtani will be the DH unless he decides to start playing the outfield or somewhere else. There is a world where the Dodgers just simply make it work to fit Arenado on the roster and he would likely flourish as many players do in Los Angeles.

Sticking in California, the San Diego Padres could also look to pair Arenado with fellow generational first baseman Manny Machado.

“I also look at a team like the (San Diego) Padres if they were to move Luis Arráez, which I would describe as a little less likely,” MLB Network’s Jon Morosi stated Tuesday morning on Hot Stove when addressing potential suitors for Arenado.

By moving Arráez the Padres could slot Arenado (or even Machado for that matter) over at first base or perhaps even cycle through the DH spot if they don’t move him. As nice as Arráez’s batting average and on-base skills are, Arenado provides a certain offensive power threat that would complete the young Padres roster quite nicely. His desire to move to a team capable of winning the World Series would be satisfied by the Padres who were on the brink of eliminating the Dodgers from the NLDS.

Another suitor could take Arenado back east to the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox made an interesting stir recently with news that they could be moving third baseman slugger Rafael Devers to first base. The move would make sense for Devers and the Red Sox as his defense isn’t exactly top-notch for the hot corner and being in Boston long-term means the Red Sox have the prerogative to keep him healthy and productive.

Arenado could certainly thrive at the plate in Boston, utilizing his pull power to take advantage of the Green Monster and well as the deeper alleys in center field, along with the shorter walls, could benefit from hitting the opposite way. Additionally, Arenado could pair back up with his friend Trevor Story on the left side of the infield, recreating a tandem that was elite in Colorado from 2016 to 2020. The Red Sox are building into a position to contend and adding a veteran presence like Arenado could be a boon for the younger roster.

While it’s expected Arenado would really only want to go to some of the biggest teams on the coasts, perhaps a dark horse candidate could arise, like the Houston Astros. If they are unable to retain Alex Bregman, perhaps the Astros could pivot to acquiring Arenado for the next few years to take over at third base or perhaps even first base. Again, his pull power could benefit from the dimensions of the Astros home stadium while providing some elite defense that would help their pitchers even more.

While not likely to happen, it would certainly be a pleasant surprise to see a team like the Kansas City Royals or Detroit Tigers swing a trade to acquire Arenado. Both teams are young and mostly homegrown position player-wise and both made incredible strides to rebound in 2024 and make the playoffs. Adding a reliable veteran like Arenado could certainly set them up for strong 2025 seasons, but of course,it would have to be for the right price and it may be a little harder to convince Arenado to waive his clause to come to the American League Central.

All eyes will be on the Cardinals this winter. Will a deal materialize during the Winter Meetings or will the affair drag out if it comes to fruition at all? There could be plenty of notable suitors as the biggest teams hoping to contend in 2025 are sure to check in and all that remains certain is that it is increasingly unlikely that Arenado will be wearing Cardinal red once spring training rolls around.