Casey Mize is a former #1 overall pick of the Tigers, and is arbitration eligible, meaning he is due for a sizable raise this year if the front office decides to pickup the option on his contract. Mize has yet to recreate the success he had his rookie season, after rehabbing from Tommy John Surgery over the last few years. It has now come the time to evaluate whether it is worth giving him another year to get back on track.

Casey Mize is a highly touted pitcher who was drafted out of Auburn University. In 2021, Mize broke Spring Training as a starter in the rotation and experienced decent success, collecting his first win on April 12th, on his first start of that year. He would finish the season with a 7-9 record, a 3.71 ERA, punching out 118 batters in 30 starts. In 2022 he would be shelved for the next two years with an elbow injury, which set the stage for 2024 to be a pivotal year for him to regain his role in the starting rotation.

In a span of 3 years, @Casey_Mize went from undrafted out of high school to the #1 overall pick by the @tigers in the 2018 @MLB Draft

Casey explains why he thinks most players would benefit from choosing college, and how his experience with @AuburnBaseball helped him grow 🔊🔊 pic.twitter.com/z0YEr9jwwd

— College Sports on SiriusXM (@SXMCollege) June 12, 2019

2024 would be a rocky season in which included a 15 day IL stint, that would later turn into 60 days. Mize was adamant he was ready to return prior to that date but was held out for an extended period of time. Ultimately, he had no pitches that produced an above average run value. His inability to keep batters off balance resulted in off the chart exit velocity numbers. This would lead to high expected on-base percentages and  batting averages. In the end Mize finished with a 2-6 record, a 4.49 ERA, and only 78 strikeouts in 102 innings of work. He was selected to the Wild Card Round roster but wasn’t utilized, and he was left entirely off of the Divisional Series Roster.

On the flip-side, Casey did show some potential to turn things around, in route to being a representative of what the Tigers drafted him to be.  He did an excellent job commanding the strike zone, boasting a 6% walk rate which put him in the 75th percentile. He also kept the ball on the ground at a consistent rate of 50% which put him in the 83rd percentile. With an average fastball velocity of 96 MPH coupled, with top notch extension, you would think he would have better run value on his heater, but that was not the case.  There may be hope that he could find more success in the future with his fastball, especially if he could pair it with an effective breaking ball.

Overall, it’s been a rocky relationship between the Tiger’s organization and Mize. From the arbitration dispute over 500k, to the mysterious 60 day IL stint. All things are leading towards the two parties severing ties, and moving forward but time will tell. The front office is looking to create more stability within the starting staff this year, and they make look to go a different route, in hopes of upgrading at his roster spot. Don’t eliminate the possibility of Mize being the focal point of a future trade to address other deficits in the Tiger’s organization.