With training camp just days away, expectations for the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers are ramping up. The Steelers went 10-7 last year and made the playoffs with a roster that was flawed in key areas. After an off-season that saw the team move aggressively to fortify those weaknesses, fans are understandably optimistic about the coming campaign. Whether the Steelers can challenge for their seventh Lombardi trophy remains to be seen, but Pittsburgh appears to have the talent to make a legitimate playoff run.

While the team goal is the primary concern, it will be interesting to see how individual players produce on both sides of the ball. Offensively, there is a new coordinator, a new quarterback and new faces along the line. Defensively, the team has added a potential star linebacker (Patrick Queen) and remade its secondary. What might we expect from some of the team’s key players in terms of production?

It’s hard to speculate on specific numbers since injuries and game circumstances affect those totals. Still, we can ballpark some figures with the caveat that players stay healthy. Don’t hold me to these numbers or draft your fantasy team accordingly, but here are some projections for Pittsburgh’s major contributors on the offensive side of the ball:

Russell Wilson (Quarterback) 

2023 Stats: 3,070 yards passing, 66.4%, 26 TDs, 8 INTs, 98.0 QBR

2024 Projection: 3,500 yards passing, 65.0%, 25 TDs, 10 INTs, 96-98 QBR

It all starts with the quarterback, where Wilson is expected to take over after being jettisoned by the Broncos. There is talk that Wilson may be washed up, and that his play last season was subpar. Statistically, though, you have to go back to 2014 to find a Pittsburgh quarterback with a higher rating than Wilson’s 98.0 (Ben Roethlisberger posted a 103.3 that season, the second-best of his career). Statistics are not everything, of course, and Wilson has noticeable flaws at this point in his career. In particular, he struggles to throw the football in the middle of the field and he holds on to it too long, leading to unnecessary sacks. But his 26:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season was also better than anything the Steelers have seen since Roethlisberger in 2014 (32:9) and provides evidence that Wilson can still play the position effectively.

What should we expect of him in 2024, then? At worst, he should provide better production than last year’s trio of quarterbacks. Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph combined for just 13 touchdowns against nine interceptions, while posting a combined QBR of 84.6. Those numbers were accumulated in a system that was not quarterback-friendly, to say the least. Matt Canada did little in the way of scripting routes to get players open, simplifying reads, using max protections or allowing his signal-callers to check out of bad plays. Arthur Smith’s system is the opposite. His progressions are based on triangular concepts that allow the quarterback to see routes develop and his use of play-action buys the quarterback time in the pocket while displacing defenders to create space for receivers. In short, it’s a system in which an athletic quarterback like Wilson who isn’t at his best standing in the pocket and working through progressions should excel.

Could Wilson become the first Pittsburgh QB since Roethlisberger to throw for 30 touchdowns in a season? I doubt it. Pittsburgh’s reliance on the run game, and what appears to be a fairly thin receiving corps (at present) suggests they may not be in that ballpark. But a touchdown-to-interception ratio comparable to last season’s for Wilson, with a similar completion percentage and closer to 3,500 yards passing, seems reasonable. The Steelers seem like a perfect fit for Wilson at this point in his career, and while he may not be an elite quarterback anymore, he should give the Steelers better quarterback play then they’ve had in several years.

Najee Harris (Running Back)

2023 Stats: 255 carries, 1,035 yards, 4.1 YPC, 29 receptions, 8 TDs

2024 Projection: 215 carries, 950 yards, 4.3 YPC, 25 receptions, 10 TDs

The 2024 season could be the final one for Harris in Pittsburgh. The Steelers declined Harris’s fifth-year option this spring, leaving him free to walk after the season should the two sides not reach a new deal. Harris has rushed for 1,000+ yards in each of his first three years, making him the 18th running back in NFL history to do so. But there are some who think his running style is a bit plodding, and that he doesn’t recognize cuts quickly enough, and that with nearly 1,000 combined touches in the league already, a second contract won’t be worth the investment.

The good news above the previous paragraph is it should make for a highly motivated Harris. Whether he’s auditioning for a new contract from the Steelers or a new team altogether, he will be incentivized to perform at a high level. From a statistical standpoint, however, Harris may have a tough time duplicating the numbers he’s posted in the past. The emergence of Jaylen Warren in Pittsburgh’s backfield, and Warren’s fit in Smith’s wide zone, boot and play-action scheme, could eat into Harris’s touches. The two essentially split time last season, with Harris the primary back and Warren the third down/change-up runner. That role could be altered if Warren continues to show the explosiveness and tackle-breaking ability that has defined his first two seasons. I don’t expect Harris to take a backseat to Warren, but a reduction in his role will not be surprising.

Harris should remain a productive back, and may score more touchdowns this season as the offense improves. But I’m not sure he reaches a fourth straight 1,000-yard season. That distinction may go to his running mate instead.

Jaylen Warren (Running Back)

2023 Stats: 149 carries, 784 yards, 5.3 YPC, 61 receptions, 6 TDs

2024 Projection: 220 carries, 1,100 yards, 5.0 YPC, 55 receptions, 10 TDs

Warren’s ascension is not inevitable. It remains to be seen how Smith will use him in the new offense, and it’s possible the Steelers will simply wear the tread off of Harris’s tires knowing this is his last year in a Pittsburgh uniform. But more likely, the marriage of Warren’s skill set and Smith’s scheme means a subtle changing-of-the-guard is at hand. While Harris should remain the starter, Warren is the player the scheme benefits most. His vision, explosiveness, pass catching ability and aptitude in pass protection should result in a larger role, resulting in bigger production. I wouldn’t bet my house on it, but I won’t be shocked to see Warren eclipse 1,000 yards rushing this season while maintaining his high level of production as a receiver. The Steelers have shown they can accommodate both Harris and Warren and find touches for each. This may be the year, though, where the balance of those touches tilts in Warren’s favor.

George Pickens (Wide Receiver)

2023 Stats: 106 targets, 63 receptions, 1,140 yards, 18.1 YPC, 5 TDs

2024 Projection: 130 targets, 80 receptions, 1,225 yards, 15.3 YPC, 8 TDs

Pickens supplanted Diontae Johnson last season as Pittsburgh’s primary receiver. He received 106 targets and caught 63 passes to Johnson’s 87/51. More impressively, Pickens surpassed 1,000 receiving yards and finished second in the league in yards-per-catch to San Francisco’s Brandon Aiyuk. It was a breakout season for the second-year player from Georgia, despite the system and subpar quarterback play.

With Johnson now shipped off to Carolina, and no established #2 receiver on the roster, it seems only an injury will keep Pickens from building on that this season. His yards-per-catch may drop due to him running a broader route tree and being targeted more on short and intermediate throws. But, as the team’s featured receiver,  expect his overall targets, catches and yards to all increase.

The presence of Wilson should help Pickens, too. Wilson built great rapport with Courtland Sutton in Denver and likes having a primary target or two to lean on. So, too, does Arthur Smith. Smith’s primary receiver last year, Drake London, had three times more targets than any other receiver on Atlanta’s roster. The sum of all of these parts suggests a career year for Pickens, who could be on the verge of ascending to elite status at his position.

Pat Freiermuth (Tight End)

2023 Stats: 47 targets, 32 receptions, 308 yards, 9.6 YPC, 2 TDs

2024 Projection: 90 targets, 64 receptions, 670 yards, 10.5 YPC, 5 TDs

Freiermuth is another player whose numbers should see a significant increase. Much has been written about the bromance that developed during mini-camp between he and Wilson, with Freiermuth quickly becoming Wilson’s favorite target. Tight ends don’t get as many targets as primary receivers, so don’t expect the ball to come Freiermuth’s way more often than it does to Pickens. But his bond with Wilson and the fact that Smith loves tight ends — Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith both had more targets in Atlanta last year than any Falcons receiver not named London — suggest this could be a career year for Freiermuth, too.

Freiermuth was criminally underused last season, receiving just 47 targets and catching 32 balls. Those numbers should double this season, especially with no clear #2 receiver in the fold. The key to Freiermuth’s success will be staying healthy, as he’s battled through a litany of injuries his first three seasons in the league. If he can stay on the field, he may the Steeler on offense whose production increases the most from last season.

Overall

If you add up the projected numbers here, and compare them to last year, you see the following:

Harris/Warren (2023): 404-1,819, 4.5, 90 catches, 14 TDs.

Pickens/Freiermuth (2023): 153 targets, 95-1,448, 15.2, 7 TDs

2023 TOTAL: 499 touches, 3,267 yards, 21 TDs

Harris/Warren (2024): 435-2,050, 4.7, 80 catches, 20 TDs.

Pickens/Freiermuth (2024): 220 targets, 144-1,895, 13.1, 13 TDs

2024 TOTAL: 579 touches, 3,945 yards, 33 TDs

The increase in production is significant but not far-fetched. The difference is 678 yards, which averages out to about 40 yards per game among the four players. With better quarterback play, a better coordinator and better blocking (all of which is anticipated), this feels like a realistic projection. The Steelers averaged 319 yards per game last season, which was 25th in the league. The supporting cast around this year’s core players may not be as good, so I don’t expect the offense to be a full 40 yards per game better. But if they increase by 25 yards per game for an average of 344 per contest, they will be just outside the Top 10 in terms of league production, which seems attainable.

So, too, does an increase in points-per-game. The Steelers ranked 28th in the league last season at just 17.9. 12 additional touchdowns from the players mentioned here, as I’ve projected, and reasonably similar production from the supporting cast, would yield an extra four to five points per game, which would also rank just outside the Top 10 per last season’s league totals. In short, this Steelers offense shouldn’t be among the league’s elite, but it stands poised to finish among the top 10-15 teams in terms of its production. If it can do so, Pittsburgh might make a run for a seventh Lombardi after all.