Get the popcorn ready, because it feels like the baseball world is going to be on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. watch. The star first baseman for the Toronto Blue Jays rejected a contract offer that was worth $340 million. The term of the deal remains unknown, but you have to imagine that the deal kept him in the wonderful country of Canada for the next decade. Things have changed in the financial landscape of baseball. For two straight years, we’ve seen players get $700 million. That’s not to say that he is seeking the Soto contract, but it does change his approach and how he values himself on the open market. Not to mention, he will be 26 years old when he hits free agency. Any team that’s landing him is getting his prime years.

“My numbers changed thanks to Juan Soto. Shohei Ohtani changed the system for Soto and Soto changed the system for me”

So, that contract was in the mid 300’s and realistically speaking this contract likely begins in the 400’s or touches the 500’s. Given how aggressive teams have become during the free agency period, Guerrero Jr. is looking to maximize his financial potential. Smart play. Also, there does appear to be a timeline.

In a sit down he did with Abriendo Sports, he did mention that he will discuss further extensions with the Blue Jays, as long as it is in the ballpark financially. Also, he says that he will not discuss a deal past the first day of Spring Training and the front office is well aware.

The front office certainly needs to pony up if they want to keep their star in the city of Toronto.

They’ve Been Willing Before, Be Willing Now

Here’s the thing about the Blue Jays front office, they have been very aggressive when trying to lure super stars to their franchise. Yes that airplane to the city did not have Shohei Ohtani on it, but the Blue Jays offered the exact same deal the Dodgers did and with the same structure. Obviously he did not accept, but the aggression to bring him in was evident. Also, the Blue Jays were one of the four teams that offered $700 million for Juan Soto. It’s clear that they are willing to spend big, they just haven’t been able to lure in the big catch. In this case, the big catch is swimming in their local pond.

Since coming into the league in 2019, Vladdy has helped shape the core that is. Credit to where it’s due, the Blue Jays have done their best to build a competitive team around him. Whatever the case is, they have yet to get over the hurdle and deliver on the hype that’s been around the team. Whatever the future holds for the Blue Jays, it should include Guerrero Jr.

Since entering the league, he has been a force offensively for the Blue Jays. Among qualified batters from 2019-2024, he ranks second in batting average (.288), has the highest on base percentage by a significant margin, and has the highest OPS. His 160 home runs are the best in this span as well as the RBI. He is a machine at generating walks too.

Also, his 137 wRC+ is the best by a wide mile truly showcasing his offensive impacts. It also places him 13th among qualified batters across the entire league. The only caveat is his defense. While playing the first base position, he has -6 defensive runs saved and -31 outs above average. Regardless, this is a tremendous baseball player that the Blue Jays will want to keep around. If not, he will have plenty of suitors. The Red Sox, Cubs,

The Core in Toronto Could Change

The foundation of the Blue Jays core could wildly change. The team that’s been shaped around short stop Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could be nearing its end. There is still time to negotiate a deal and extending Guerrero still gives the Blue Jays a competitive window. While this core may not have worked out as planned, retooling around Guerrero Jr. makes more sense than not putting the best foot forward.

It will not be cheap, especially with the position player free agency class being thin and it being highlighted by Guerrero Jr. and potentially Kyle Tucker highlighting the class. Given the state of free agency the last few seasons, the landscape is changing and the market is sky rocketing.

The winter months will be long, but Spring Training is not far away. The baseball world is officially on Guerrero Jr. watch and this will be an ongoing story if it bleeds into the 2025 season.

Get the popcorn ready.