Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the Steelers have not been great in first quarters this season.

I’m sure you have. But how “not great” are we talking about?

To be exact, Pittsburgh finished the regular season 29th in first-quarter points scored, with an average of 2.8 per game. Defensively, they were 32nd in points surrendered — dead last — at 6.6 per game. The difference of -3.8 also ranked dead last. In straight terms, the Steelers typically entered the second quarter of games this season trailing by more than a field goal.

And yet, if Pittsburgh is trailing by just a field goal after the opening quarter in Saturday night’s Wild Card playoff game in Baltimore, it will be a success. Why? Because as bad as the Steelers have been in first quarters this season, their performance in openers in their past five playoff games has been abysmal. In games against New England (2016), Jacksonville (2017), Cleveland (2020), Kansas City (2021), and Buffalo (2023), the Steelers have trailed after the first quarter by a combined score of 66-0. That’s an average of -13.2 points per game. It’s no surprise they’ve lost all five of games, then. When you dig yourself a two-touchdown hole in the playoffs, the end is near.

Why have they been so bad in opening quarters in the playoffs? It’s been a combination of things. Offensively, they’ve been plagued by turnovers. The Steelers have five turnovers in the first quarter of their past five playoff games. Each has led to a touchdown by their opponent. Meanwhile, the defense has no first-quarter takeaways. -5 in turnovers has equated to -35 on the scoreboard.

Next is the matter of opening drives. With the exception of the Kansas City game in 2021, each Pittsburgh opponent has finished their opening drive with points. Buffalo, Cleveland and Jacksonville scored touchdowns, while New England kicked a field goal. Pittsburgh’s opening drives, meanwhile, have been a disaster. Four punts and a fumble returned for a touchdown.  Three of those drives ended in three-and-outs, and just one– the Buffalo game last season — earned a single first down. All told, the numbers on opening drives in those five playoff games look like this:

Pittsburgh: 15 plays, 16 yards, 1.0 ypp, 0 points.

Opponents: 30 plays, 256 yards, 8.5 ypp, 24 points.

That’s just grizzly.

For history to not repeat itself in Baltimore, a few things must happen. First, the Steelers have to summon their Week 11 selves. That was this season’s initial matchup with the Ravens, where on the second play of the game, Nick Herbig forced a Derrick Henry fumble and Pittsburgh recovered. Eight plays later, after picking up a couple of first downs, Chris Boswell kicked a field goal and the Steelers had a lead.

Playing from ahead, even by just three points, would be a huge on Saturday night.

I mentioned the Steelers picked up a couple of first downs on that Week 11 opening drive. They scripted it aggressively, throwing the ball on five of its seven offensive plays. Since that Baltimore game, their seven opening drives have produced no points and just two first downs. The last five have all resulted in three-and-outs. On those three-and-out drives, four of the five started with runs to Najee Harris. To say their openers feel predictable is obvious.

The biggest opening play they’ve had since Week 11 gained 15 yards — on a defensive pass interference penalty. Their other opening pass play in that stretch was a completion to Pat Freiermuth. Doing almost anything but handing the ball to Harris would at least force the Ravens to defend beyond the A and B-gaps. The Steelers need to stretch the field somehow. Or get the ball to someone in space. Take a deep shot. Something.

Their opponents, meanwhile, have scored 24 points on opening drives since Week 11. Seven came on a defensive pick-six by the Bengals on a play where it looked as though George Pickens was interfered with. The others came as a result of opposing offenses slicing through the Pittsburgh defense like a hot knife through butter.

Philadelphia went 54 yards in seven plays and kicked a field goal on its opening possession. Baltimore drove deep into Pittsburgh territory before an Alex Highsmith sack pushed them out of field goal range. Kansas City and Cincinnati both scored touchdowns. It’s just been too easy, as though the Steelers’ opponents know exactly what to expect.

Which gets us to the heart of the matter.

Opening scripts, and openers in general, are largely on coaching staffs. The first five to ten minutes of a football game is the area over which a coach has the most control. It’s the period you can dictate most to your opponent, and the area you spend the least amount of time reacting to how the game unfolds.

Over his career, Mike Tomlin has shown himself to be pretty good at reacting. As the game progresses, he’s been adept at figuring out how teams are attacking the Steelers and adjusting to it. When it comes to opening quarters, however, he’s been poor at dictating. Especially in the playoffs.

Why is that? Is he too conservative, like he alluded to at a recent press conference where he said he prefers to run the football, especially early in games, because it contains “less risk” than passing? That’s a statement that would make Woody Hayes, Bo Schembechler and Joe Paterno happy. But no one since.

Is it because he and his staff are bad at scripting? Have they been poor at studying film of how their opponents open games, and subsequently scheming for it? Has their vanilla approach to openers given their opponents an upper hand in their own preparation?

What about motivation? Coach Tomlin is a cerebral man, and his ability to motivate is often intellectual. What about his pre-game locker room mentality, though? Does Tomlin’s “I got this” vibe create a false sense of security in his players, or perhaps a lack of urgency? Tomlin is not going to change who he is, but could firing up his team to go out and bite kneecaps (ala Dan Campbell) work better on game-day than talking about the needs of the collective or the standard being the standard?

Is it all of the above?

Whatever the case, if the Steelers stand any chance of winning in Baltimore and breaking their playoff drought, they have to start faster. History indicates that could be daunting. But what else is there? If they fall behind the way they’ve done in their past five playoff games, they’re cooked. Tomlin, his staff and his players all know this. Their challenge is to do something about it.