I did this exercise at the beginning of the 2023 NFL season, when expectations were high for Year 2 of Kenny Pickett and a pretty loaded group of offensive skill position players to go along with the Steelers’ perennially excellent defense. I laid out the road for that team to get to a Super Bowl, and it turned out to be as outlandish as it was premature.

This season, the vibe is different. The Steelers have a real offense in 2024 and a star-studded defense playing better than it has in at least half a decade. QB Russell Wilson has jumpstarted a big-play passing attack that has proven it can put up points and, as displayed in Washington this last weekend, can do enough to win games even when the defense doesn’t have its best game.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the AFC. Nobody stands out as an unbeatable juggernaut, despite Kansas City’s actual unbeaten record. KC could just as easily be 6-3 as they are 9-0 the way the offense has played. Buffalo and Baltimore are seemingly the conference’s most explosive teams, and the Steelers have lost the same amount of games as the Bills and the same amount of wins as the Ravens. There’s an argument to be made that the Texans and Chargers are legitimate contenders as well, but the ceilings feel lower with Houston’s OL a complete mess and the Chargers struggles earlier in the season.

As for the rest of the AFC, it’s a wide-open slog of mediocrity. Pittsburgh is clearly better right now than teams like the Broncos and Colts, and even the Bengals, who do scare me more than either of the horse teams. The chances this year are real, and the Steelers have a chance to write a very exciting story in this AFC race.

So without further ado, here is the Steelers 2024 path to the Super Bowl:

STEP 1: WIN THE AFC NORTH

It’s well-documented by now that the Steelers will play all 6 of their division matchups over their final 8 games. The division race heats up immediately with a game vs. the Ravens this week with 1st place in the AFC North on the line. If the Steelers want to make it to the Super Bowl, I believe they need to at least secure a home game on Wild Card weekend. Preferably against a team like the Broncos or the Colts. Winning the North would likely put Pittsburgh in play for the 2nd or 3rd seed in the AFC, assuming Kansas City continues to win and the Houston Texans playing as the best team in a bad division destined for the 4th seed.

STEP 2: LAND AT LEAST THE AFC’S 2ND SEED

If the Steelers could finish as the 2 seed in the AFC, they would draw the AFC’s final playoff qualifier (7 seed) and likely be a heavy favorite on WC Weekend, and they would be guaranteed at least 2 home games if they were to win that first postseason matchup. Say the Broncos finish as the 7 seed; they would travel to Pittsburgh with a Rookie QB to face Mike Tomlin and a highly motivated Russell Wilson. Sign me up for that! A win would land you the highest remaining seed. I’d feel much better facing a team like Buffalo or Houston in the friendly confines of Acrisure Stadium.

STEP 3: DRAW A FRIENDLY DIVISIONAL ROUND OPPONENT

We’ve talked about the Wild Card Round, and how drawing a team like the Broncos would give the Steelers a big advantage in the opening round of the playoffs. The Divisional Round is where it gets tricky. If you win the 2nd Seed, there’s a good chance a very dangerous Buffalo Bills squad is waiting for you as the 3rd, and highest remaining, seed in the AFC. If I’m the Steelers, this is how I would hope things play out:

Wild Card Round: 2 Steelers def. 7 Broncos, 6 Chargers def. 3 Bills, 5 Ravens def. 4 Texans

Divisional Round: 2 Steelers vs. 5 Ravens, 1 Chiefs vs. 6 Chargers

I’d much rather play the familiar Ravens in the Divisional Round than draw a Bills team that seems to have the Steelers number, and I would like Pittsburgh’s chances in the AFCC game against a Chiefs team that plays a very similar brand of football. We’ll see a preview of this potential matchup on Christmas Day in Pittsburgh, and it’s highly likely that the path to the Super Bowl for any AFC team goes through Kansas City, but I wouldn’t automatically count the Steelers out in that scenario based on the stylistic approach of both teams in 2024.

If the Steelers want to make it to New Orleans for Super Bowl LVIII, the path won’t be easy. However, some roads would be smoother than others, and the above scenario is the best way I can see within reason for the Steelers to reach that goal.

Let me know your thoughts and ideal Playoff matchups by round in the comments below!