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Chargers vs. Browns, Why Am I Watching?

I had fun watching the Browns last week and I want to have fun again this week, that’s why I’m watching. This Sunday Cleveland hosts Los Angeles at Huntington Bank Stadium, 1:00pm EST. Last week the Chargers (4-3) beat the Saints 26-8, and the Browns (2-6) beat the Ravens 29-24. The Chargers are 2.5-point favorites.

Browns Offense vs. Chargers Defense

The Browns offense is ranked 31st in total offense (272.3 yards per game), 27th in rushing offense (92.5 yards a game), 29th in passing offense (179.8 yards a game) and 27th in points per game (17.3). The Chargers defense in ranked 8th in total defense (305.4 yards per game), 11th in rushing defense (112.0 yards a game), 9th in passing defense (193.4 yards per game) and first in points per game (13). Los Angeles’s defense starts up front with their pass rush. Last week against the Saints they had five sacks and seven quarterback hits. The Charger’s secondary is holding quarterbacks to the eighth lowest QBR (81.1) and is tied for seventh in yards per pass attempt (6.7). They have allowed no 300-yard passers, one 100-yard-wide receiver and give up only six yards per pass play. Their rushing defense, however, allows 4.8 yards per carry (tied for 25th) along with 112 rushing yards per game as mentioned above. The Browns offense last week was sparked by a new quarterback and a healthy offensive line. They were able to run the ball when they needed to which helped play action. Browns quarterback Jameis Winston was able to get the ball out of his hand in less than 2.5 seconds on pass plays, which helped the down field passing. Cleveland was also very successful on third down conversions going eight for fifteen (53%). Cleveland will have to continue to run the ball, use play action and the quick passing game. Running back Nick Chubb has had his best games against the Chargers, he averages 7.8 yards a carry. Because the Chargers play strictly zone pass defense, the middle of the field should be open to exploit. The downside last week, Winston almost threw three interceptions and will have to be careful against the Chargers who have a plus six turnover ratio. Winston will have to stay with the gameplan and use the short passing game to set up open receivers over the middle of the field. Cleveland has to stay out of third and long situations.

Browns Defense vs. Chargers Offense

The Browns defense is ranked 14th in total defense (326.5 yards per game), 18th in rushing defense (125.9 yards a game), 12th in passing defense (200.6 yards a game) and 18th in points per game (23.3). The Chargers offense is ranked 23rd in total offense (311.1 yards per game), 20th in rushing offense (117.1 yards per game), 24th in passing offense (194 yards per game) and 24th in points per game (18.9). Los Angeles’s offense at the beginning of the season wanted to play old school, smash mouth football by running J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards behind a very strong offensive line featuring three first round draft picks. They struggled. After the week five bye, the Chargers started to feature the passing game with Justin Herbert and wide receiver Ladd McConkey. Prior to the bye, Herbert had a little more than 400 yards passing, since the bye he has over 800 yards passing. The main reason the Chargers offense works is because they dominate time of possession, 32 minutes per game (fifth in the league). Cleveland’s run defense has improved since the Eagles game, and they’ll need to continue that trend. The Browns will have two new starting linebackers due to injuries, Mohamoud Diabate and Devin Bush. Both played well against the Ravens.  McConkey lines up primarily in the slot, so coverage will go to Cameron Mitchell. Due to Denzel Ward’s sixth concussion, Greg Newsome will switch to the outside.  Cleveland’s pass rush will need to pressure Herbert. They have 21 sacks (tied for 7th) and is tied for 14th in quarterback hits. They must force the Chargers into long third downs, where Los Angeles is ninth in offensive third down conversion rate (40.4%) and the Browns are third (31.1%) in defensive three down conversation rate.

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