The return of running back Nick Chubb, that’s why I’m watching. Cleveland hosts Cincinnati this Sunday at Huntington Bank Field, 1:00pm EST. The Bengals (2-4) beat the Giants last week 17-7 and the Browns (1-5) lost to the Eagles 20-16. The Bengals are 6.5-point favorites.

Browns Offense vs. Bengals Defense

The Browns offense is ranked near the bottom in every statistical category. They’re 31st in total offense, 28th in rushing offense, 30th in passing offense and 32nd in third down conversion rate (19.23%). The one area they are good at is red zone offense, seventh, scoring 66.67% of the time. At home, when in the red zone, they score a touchdown 100% of the time. However, they don’t get to the redzone very often, only 1.6% attempts per game, last in the league. The Browns offensive roster will have some changes this week. Running backs Nick Chubb and Nyheim Hines are expected to return. Both would give a boost to the offense. With the trade of wide receiver Amari Cooper to the Bills, Jerry Jeudy is expected to be the new number one receiver. This could also allow rookie Jarmari Thrash to see the field for the first time this year. The Browns must continue to build on their second half success against the Eagles when the inside zone run was very effective as well as the quick passing game. The only thing that stopped them was stupid, untimely penalties. Cincinnati’s defense is ranked 23rd overall, 28th against the run and 14th against the pass. They’ve allowed 25.3 points per game (26th), 45% of third down conversions (26th), 71% of fourth down conversions (28th), 65% scoring in the redzone (24th), 80% scoring near the goal line (21st) and the third most first downs (23) in the league. The Bengals defense has only eight sacks, but five are from defensive end Trey Hendrickson. Both of their linebackers are excellent tacklers (Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt). The Cincinnati secondary has young corners (Cam Taylor-Britt, D.J. Turner) and veteran safeties (Von Bell, Gino Stone). Thier third corner, Mike Hilton is the best blitzer in the secondary. The Bengals secondary is holding opposing quarterbacks to only 6.6 yards per attempt. The Browns will need to continue the inside running game, short passing game and get into the redzone and score.

Browns Defense vs. Bengals Offense

Cincinnati’s offense is ranked twelve overall, 26th in rushing and seventh in passing. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow likes throwing the ball to his two best wide receivers, Tee Higgins and Jamar Chase. They will line up with multiple tight ends where Burrow’s primary target will be Mike Gesicki. Running backs Zack Moss and Chase Brown handle most of the carries. Joe Burrow tends to struggle against the Browns, he’s 1-5 as a starter (0-3 in Cleveland). The Browns defense at home has held Burrow to a 63.5 completion rate and a QBR of 86. In his six games against the Browns, Burrow has been sacked 20 times and has turned the ball over eight times (five interceptions and three fumbles). Cleveland has held Jamari Chase to one 100-yard game, one touchdown and he’s only averaging 50 yards per game against Cleveland. Tee Higgins has had zero 100-yard games and two touchdowns against the Browns. Cleveland is ranked 15th in total defense, 21st in rushing defense and 11th in passing defense. They have a 39.1% pass rush pressure rate (tied for fourth) and 43.1% blitz% rate (third). The Cleveland defense will need to pressure Burrow but be careful not to blitz. Against the blitz this year Burrow has five touchdowns and a QBR of 132.1, which is third in the league. The pressure must be effective, when covering wide receivers, the Browns secondary has allowed a QBR of 103.3. Cleveland will get a big boast on defense with the return of linebacker Jordan Hicks and safeties Juan Thornhill and Grant Delpit. Their run defense has struggled all year, however last week against the Eagles they held Saquon Barkley to 47 yards and 2.6 yards per carry. The Browns defense must continue to pressure and contain Burrow, matchup Denzel Ward against Chase and stop the run.