Of all the reported signings on the first day of the NFL’s legal free agency tampering period on Monday, the one that really caught my eye was the Kirk Cousins deal with the Atlanta Falcons. Cousins, the starting quarterback in Minnesota the previous six seasons, was lured to Atlanta with an eye-popping four-year, $180 million contract that includes about $100 million in guaranteed money.

The NFL is so flush with cash these days that the dollar amounts included in many of these deals seem fictitious. You get a hundred million dollars! You get a hundred million dollars! Everybody gets a hundred million dollars! We’ve already had five $100 million+ deals (Chris Jones, Robert Hunt, Christian Wilkins, Baker Mayfield and Cousins), while several others have cleared the $50 million mark. The deal for Cousins has the most potential money though, which makes him the biggest winner of free agency so far. The fact he is going to a team that should compete for a division title in the weak NFC South is icing on the cake.

What of that deal from Atlanta’s perspective, though? The Falcons got the best quarterback on the free agent market, which makes them winners as well. But the cost of the deal, and its potential consequences, represent a huge gamble.

Cousins has certainly been a productive quarterback in recent years. Since 2018, when he arrived in Minnesota, he has thrown 171 touchdown passes against just 55 interceptions. He has never completed less than 65% of his passes in a season and he has thrown for over 4,000 yards four times. He is accurate, efficient and well-liked in the locker room. He is a pro’s pro, and a proven leader of men.

In addition to his past success, one of the biggest reasons Atlanta pursued Cousins was because they loved his potential fit in the offense new coordinator Zac Robinson will bring with him from Los Angeles. Robinson spent the last few years as the quarterbacks coach for Sean McVay with the Rams and is expected to implement a McVay-style wide-zone/bootleg/play-action scheme that will use myriad shifts and motions to displace defenses and create match-up advantages. Robinson worked with Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell when O’Connell was in LA, so there will be familiarity in the system for Cousins. Much like with Matthew Stafford in LA, it is a system that plays to the strengths of the cerebral Cousins, whose ability to read defenses is enhanced by all of Robinson’s pre-snap movement.

And, much like he had in Minnesota, Cousins will have a wealth of young talent at his disposal. Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London comprise one of the best running back/tight end/wide receiver trios in the NFL, with all three under 25 years of age. Throw in the fact that the Falcons have a Top 10 offensive line, and the makings of an elite offense in Atlanta are there.

Why is the Cousins signing a gamble, then? For starters, he will be 36 years old when next season starts and is coming off of an Achilles tear that ended his 2023 season in Week 9. An Achilles injury is no joke for an aging quarterback, especially given all of the movement the offense in Atlanta will require of him. Wide zone from under center mandates a quarterback catch the snap and then sprint the ball to the running back so he can receive it as deeply as possible in order to have time to read the seams developing in a defense and find his cut. And the bootleg passes that come off of the wide zone scheme force a quarterback to pivot off of that action and sprint away in the opposite direction. That’s a lot of stress on the Achilles — a lot of abrupt starting and stopping — and should be a source of legitimate concern. There’s no doubt Atlanta was comfortable with the medical reports on Cousins before signing him. But if I were owner Arthur Blank, I’d hold my breath every time I saw Cousins sprinting out from under center.

Then there’s the size of the contract, which (literally) is no small thing. Cousins gets $90 million guaranteed in the first two years of the deal, when he is likely to play his best football. Of the remaining $90 million, only $10 million of that is guaranteed. So, from that perspective, the Falcons could conceivably part ways with him in a few seasons if he’s not playing well and not have to eat much salary. But if he’s not playing well, odds are pretty good that the $90 million they will have spent was for naught. Make no mistake about it — this is a “win now” move for the Falcons.

Is Atlanta ready to win now? That’s the (ninety) million dollar question. The offense should be good, and the defensive background of new head coach Raheem Morris suggests improvements to that unit are coming. Throw in the fact the South is one of the weakest divisions in football and Atlanta should be in the thick of things.

Beyond the South, though, it gets trickier. San Francisco remains the class of the NFC, and Philadelphia made a huge move on Monday by signing Saquon Barkley. Dallas and Detroit are both ahead of Atlanta, and teams like the Packers and Rams will be as good if not better. Atlanta might be able to win the South. Winning the NFC is a different story.

Cousins, for what it’s worth, has gone 1-4 in his career in the playoffs with a quarterback rating (93.7) almost five points lower than his regular season average (98.5). I’m not saying Cousins can’t win in the post-season, or that Atlanta is too far away from the powerhouses in the NFC to have signed him to such a massive deal. It’s a gamble, though. A big one.

In all likelihood, Blank was willing to make the gamble because he’s 81 years old, has owned the team since 2002 and has never won a Super Bowl. He’s also a billionaire, and he’s not going to allow money to derail what is probably his ultimate dream. If spending $180 million on an aging quarterback recovering from a serious injury is his best path to that elusive Lombardi, so be it.

Let’s just hope he’s prepared if it doesn’t turn out in his favor.