The Pittsburgh Steelers are in the playoffs! In survival mode for the majority of the season, it’s quite a feat for a team that ended the season with a -20 point differential and that started 3 different QBs and a litany of off-ball linebackers and safeties due to injuries on Defense. Let’s not forget that All-Pro DT Cam Heyward missed 8 weeks with a soft-tissue injury and Minkah Fitzpatrick hasn’t played since week. It’s been a wild ride, but the team’s hard work and strong finish earned them a trip to Buffalo for Super Wild Card weekend and a tilt against the surging Bills, winners of 5 straight and AFC East Champs for the 4th consecutive season.

For Pittsburgh, leaving Buffalo with their first playoff win since the 2016 season will be a major challenge. Unlike many recent Steelers playoff teams, however, this unit has an offensive identity and a defense that has proven it can be more than just it’s superstars.

So, what does a Steelers’ win on Sunday look like? Conversely, how would a loss look? Let’s dive into both the positive and negative results that might be come 1:00pm on Sunday.

WHY THE STEELERS WILL WIN ON SUNDAY

The Steelers enter the Wild Card round with one of the league’s hottest offenses. Since Mason Rudolph took over the starting QB job, the Pittsburgh Steelers are 4th in offensive EPA/play and 5th in success rate according to rbsdm.com, and it all starts with a running game that sets the tone and allows for big plays in the passing game. Rudolph is on a heater, ranking first in completion % and completion % over expected (CPOE) since Week 16. The Steelers attack has proven to be an elite ball-control unit while being able to score from anywhere on the field.

On defense, the Steelers finished the season giving up the 6th fewest points per game, and were 7th in defensive EPA/play. Even without TJ Watt on the field for this game, the defense has plenty of star power and more solid contributors along the defensive front and in the secondary than they’ve had in a long time. They have a lockdown CB1 in rookie Joey Porter, Jr. who allowed the lowest completion % of any CB in the league with 50+ targets, and a formidable pass rush behind Alex Highsmith, Markus Golden, and rookie Nick Herbig that can wreak havoc in the backfield. They also placed 8th in takeaways with 27 and boasted the 3rd best turnover differential in football in 2023.

If all goes according to plan on offense, the Bills will be unable to load the box to defend the run because of Rudolph’s ability to stretch the field to explosive downfield threats like George Pickens and Diontae Johnson. With poor weather likely in play, the advantage goes to Pittsburgh and their ability to pound the rock. If Najee Harris and the Steelers offensive line can set the tone early, it could be a long day for Buffalo. On defense, the Steelers will try to keep the ball in front of them and play zone to keep Josh Allen from killing them on the ground. The team’s safeties and linebackers will be crucial to containing the middle of the field where Allen likes to target rookie TE Dalton Kincaid. If they can eliminate explosive plays, Allen’s propensity to press and make poor decisions will keep the scoring low and complement their efficient, ball-control offense. Do these things, and the Steelers will be headed to M&T Bank Stadium for matchup 3.0 against the rival Ravens.

WHY THE STEELERS WILL LOSE ON SUNDAY

For all the good we’ve seen from the Steelers offense the last 3 weeks, the fact is they are starting a backup QB in a road playoff game against one of the NFL’s hottest teams. The Bills boast a cohesive defensive unit that can dictate matchups and get after the opposing QB. If the Bills front 4 can get some push against the Steelers OL and slow the Steelers run game, the pressure goes to Mason Rudolph to make big plays on the road in his first ever playoff start. If this game turns into a shootout, the Steelers will have trouble keeping up with Rudolph under center.

The Bills have no such inexperience at QB with All-World passer Josh Allen looking for his 5th playoff win in the last 4 years. Allen alone could turn the tide of this game if the Steelers defense is unable to force him into some of his signature mistakes. In the last meeting between these two teams, Josh Allen torched the Steelers deep in the middle of the field while their T.J. Watt-less defense garnered little pressure and allowed 10.2 yards/play and 432 passing yards. If Allen has time to deliver downfield sans Watt again this Sunday, the Steelers secondary can be had. They gave up the 16th most yards per game through the air in 2023.

The other problem for Pittsburgh could be the Bills’ TEs, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Kincaid specifically has all the tools to make life difficult for the Steelers in the middle of the field, an area they have struggled with all the moving parts in the middle of the defense. If the Bills can take advantage of mismatches in this area, the Steelers defense has shown significant holes in coverage in the middle of the field. Arizona’s and New England’s tight ends specifically torched the Steelers earlier this season, and if they can’t stop Kincaid and Knox, they’ll be watching the divisional round from their couches in Pittsburgh.

How do you think Steelers vs. Bills will go down on Sunday? Let me know in the comments. Be sure to stay tuned to steelcurtainnetwork.com for all the latest about the Steelers playoff run. Go Steelers!