Stop the presses (or, should I say, don’t press “publish” just yet), the Steelers go into their final two games needing to win out and also get outside help to qualify for the 2023/2024 NFL playoffs.

Where have we seen this before? I don’t know, just about every other year.

It really wasn’t like this prior to 2009.

One thing I will say for Bill Cowher during his 15-year reign as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers: His teams didn’t usually have to worry about the happenings at other stadiums as they pertained to their playoff fate.

There were times when Cowher’s Steelers’ squads went into the final weeks of a season facing a win-and-need-help scenario, but they were few and far between. 1993 was one example; the Steelers got the help they needed in the final week. 2000 was another example; the Steelers did not get the help they needed in the final week. 2005 was kind of an example but not really. The Steelers may have needed a ton of help with four games left, but their playoff fate was in their own hands by the time the regular-season finale rolled around.

It’s clearly been a different story with Mike Tomlin as head coach of the Steelers for the past 17 years.

The first two years under Tomlin were pretty traditional in terms of the Steelers’ playoff outlook as they approached their regular-season finale: They were either looking to improve their postseason positioning or they were simply eager to rest their starters.

That all changed in 2009 when the Steelers were a little too late in raising hell in December. Sure, they eventually did, but not until they were 6-7 and in dire straits. Pittsburgh won its final three games to finish at 9-7 but needed multiple things to go right in the last week to secure a postseason berth. None of those things happened.

2013 was similar. The Steelers sat at 5-8 after 13 games before rattling off three-straight wins to end the regular season. Pittsburgh again needed multiple outside factors to go in its favor to secure a playoff berth. Unlike 2009, most things fell in Pittsburgh’s favor on the final Sunday, but Ryan Succop’s last-second field goal attempt did not.

Fast-forward two years, and the Steelers headed into their Week 17 finale against the Browns with a chance to finish with a 10-6 record. Say, shouldn’t a 10-6 record be good enough to make the postseason? Only if you view such records in a Steelers vacuum. Unfortunately, the Steelers went into their 2015 regular-season finale needing a win over Cleveland along with a Bills victory over the Jets. Believe it or not, things went Pittsburgh’s way this time.

Three years later, following an infamous collapse that saw the Steelers go from 7-2-1 and a huge lead in the AFC North, to 9-6-1 and in second place to the Ravens, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Co. stood around after their win over Cincinnati and watched the scoreboard at Heinz Field. Like many others in attendance that day, they were hoping that the Browns’ Baker Mayfield could pull an Andy Dalton and defeat Baltimore at M&T Bank Stadium. He couldn’t.

The Steelers collapsed again in 2019, only it wasn’t nearly as egregious. Ben Roethlisberger was lost for the season in Week 2, and it was kind of amazing that Mason Rudolph, Duck Hodges and the Steelers defense had managed to carve out an 8-5 record with three weeks to go. Pittsburgh actually controlled its playoff fate at 8-5, but after two losses, it went into its regular-season finale needing a win and help from the Texans. The Steelers didn’t win in Baltimore, so it didn’t matter that they also didn’t get any help from the Texans.

Just two years ago, in the final regular-season game of Roethlisberger’s career, Pittsburgh again traveled to M&T Bank Stadium needing a win and some outside help to make the postseason. The Colts were blown out by the dreadful Jaguars, and the Steelers defeated Baltimore in overtime to finish at 9-7-1. Everyone celebrated as if a playoff berth was a done deal because the only thing that had to happen was a non-tie in the game involving the Chargers and Raiders on Sunday Night Football. The Chargers and Raiders game damn near ended in a tie.

Finally, last year, the Steelers were 5-8 after 13 games. Not only were they on the cusp of suffering their first losing season under Tomlin, but playoffs? Are you kidding me? Even if Pittsburgh finished with a four-game winning streak, it had zero tiebreaking advantages. Why bother? The Steelers did bother and won the last four games. Believe it or not, they were seconds away from clinching the AFC’s final wildcard spot before the Dolphins snuck past Joe Flacco and the Jets down in Miami.

Damn, that’s seven different examples since 2009. That’s a lot for a blue-blood NFL organization.

You can now make it eight. The 2023 Steelers are 8-7 with two games left, both on the road. Pittsburgh needs to win both games (well, not technically, but probably) and get outside help.

What help?

The Bills have to lose one of their final two games. And if the Bills don’t, the Jaguars do. If Buffalo loses one of its final two, it would be 10-7 and lose out based on conference record (the Bills would be 6-6, while Pittsburgh would finish 7-5). If the Bills win twice, but Jacksonville loses once, the Steelers would still get in should they win out. Why? The Jaguars, despite their head-to-head win over Pittsburgh in late October, would finish at 9-8. That could still be good enough to win the AFC South, but it obviously wouldn’t be good enough to beat out the Steelers for a wildcard berth.

Another scenario would be for the Browns to lose out, which would place them behind the Steelers in the AFC North standings (Cleveland plays the Jets on TNF, so this might be moot by the time you read this). Therefore, even if the Jaguars and Bills win out, Pittsburgh would still make the playoffs. The Colts and Texans are also 8-7 and in seventh and eighth place based on head-to-head tiebreakers over the Steelers, who are currently in ninth place. Fortunately, the Colts and Texans play one another in the final week, so one is going to lose at least one more game. That means one of them is going to finish no better than 9-8. Therefore, either the Bills or the Dolphins would be the fifth seed, while the Texans or Colts would be the sixth seed. The final seed would go to Pittsburgh under that scenario.

Now, if the Browns do win one of their last two games, they clinch a spot. If that’s the case, and the Bills and Jaguars win out, the Texans and Colts would both have to finish at 9-8. Under that scenario, the Browns and the AFC East runner-up would take the fifth and sixth seeds, while Pittsburgh would get the seventh spot.

Update: The Browns defeated the Jets on Thursday Night Football, 37-20, so forget any scenario involving Cleveland losing out. 

How can the Steelers win out and miss the playoffs? Simple: If the Jaguars win out, they’re AFC South champs. If the Bills win out, they would either be AFC East champs or a wildcard. If the Browns win one more game, they get a wildcard. The Dolphins have already clinched a playoff spot, so they’ll either be division champions or a wildcard. Therefore, if either the Colts or Texans win out, they’d be the final wildcard team in the AFC.

One thing I know for sure: If the Steelers win this Sunday in Seattle, they’ll at least go into the final week still alive for the playoffs. And, who knows, maybe they’ll even control their fate.