Acquiring talent in the NFL is a very tricky skill set. When looking at the NFL draft, if a team’s draft class has half the players turn into significant contributors it is usually deemed a success. When it comes to free agency, a place where players have at least shown what they can do in the NFL before teams dish out big contracts, it’s still not much more of a guarantee. Team still miss on free agency all the time.

With the situation going on in Denver and how they are choosing to handle their very small but still mathematically possible playoff hopes around the contract situation of Russell Wilson, it’s easy to see how sometimes signing a free agent just doesn’t work out. Sometimes it’s for a huge contract while others are not nearly the investment. But when looking at the dollar value, the business decision to stick with a player that simply isn’t working because of the investment can squash a team success for multiple seasons.

Regardless, teams hit and miss in free agency all the time. The statement that I have said constantly during the NFL offseason is that for every James Farrior there is a Donte Moncrief. When the Steelers have a given free agent class, I try to look and see which player is going to become a steal and which one is simply not going to work out.

Following the 2022 NFL season, I looked at the Steelers 2022 free agent class and felt the player that didn’t come through the most was KR/WR Gunner Olszewski. He was brought in to be the kick returner and got replaced early in the season and really didn’t justify the roster spot on offense. But Olszewski still landed on the 53 to start the 2023 season only to later be released.

But after further evaluation, I have a new candidate as to was the Steelers biggest mistake in free agency from 2022. That would be quarterback to Mitch Trubisky.

When the Steelers agreed to a contract in the opening hours of the legal tampering period of the new 2022 NFL league year, I bought into the hype that many had which stated Trubisky was the best quarterback option available in free agency. I hadn’t watched him play a snap in Buffalo and just went off what others were saying. I assumed the Steelers believed him, so there still had to be something left. Even after the Steelers selected the first quarterback in the 2022 NFL draft in Kenny Pickett, I believed Trubisky could be that bridge guy the Steelers might possibly need and would be a quality backup quarterback. But now that we are almost 2 seasons in, I can safely say my assumptions and expectations were incorrect.

Although we know the numbers of the contract when it comes to Trubisky, what was the cost of the Steelers going with him initially in 2022 and sticking with him as the back up in 2023? Although the 2023 story has not been completely written yet, I’m going to give a general statement and break it down by season: Mitch Trubisky cost the Steelers the playoffs in both seasons.

Before getting into how things might have changed over these two seasons, the reason for this conclusion, although based on only one game, is the difference in quarterback play the Steelers received from Mason Rudolph versus Mitch Trubisky. If the Steelers would have stuck with Rudolph and not even signed Trubisky in 2022, how would things have changed?

I know this is a bit of a It’s a Wonderful Life scenario, and the fantastic rendition on last weeks What Yinz Talkin’ Bout podcast applying this principle to Matt Canada is something every Steelers fans should listen to. Regardless, I’m still choosing to go in this direction when it comes to Mitch Trubisky.

When it comes to the 2022 season, I’m not going with what many Steelers fans believe should have happened and have Kenny Pickett begin the season as the starter. Based on how the Steelers have been playing their higher profile draftees recently, it seems that they look to protect their exposure early. I believe this is done to help transition them to the NFL and have them play much more of a schedule they would have had their final year in college. It could be stated as attempting to avoid the “rookie wall” as just one way to state it. Either way, I still wouldn’t hypothetically play Kenny Pickett before when he actually came in.

But what if the Steelers would have played Mason Rudolph?

We’ll never know exactly what would have happened. Perhaps Mason Rudolph played better and won more games and the Steelers didn’t turn to Kenny Pickett when they did. Maybe things played out similarly and Rudolph wouldn’t have been able to win the game in Carolina or coming off the bench against Tampa Bay. But based on what I’ve seen the last few weeks of this season, I believe the Steelers could have pulled off one more victory in 2022 which would have put them in the postseason. It’s not an outlandish scenario.

Now let’s forget about 2022 and what could have been there. What if Mason Rudolph was the backup quarterback for the Steelers through the month of December this season? Would the Steelers have at least one more victory and hold their own destiny when it came to the postseason this year? I think there are many fans that believe that at least one victory would have been possible against Arizona, New England, or Indianapolis, with a number of fans believing multiple wins were likely. While the Steelers 2023 story has not been concluded yet, and they could just as likely go 0-2 than 2-0 over the final weeks of the season, they potentially would have been in a better situation with more margin for error.

The Steelers missed on signing Mitch Trubisky as a free agent in 2022. It happens. They didn’t completely break the bank in doing so like the situation in Denver. The bigger mistake was sticking with him when he was not their best option even as a backup quarterback. What is even more curious is why the Steelers continued to do so when the signing of Trubisky was done by a general manager that wasn’t here for even one of his snaps with the Steelers. Perhaps it was a miss-evaluation of the position or the internal politics of the Steelers front office, but the bottom line is the Steelers now have the depth chart correct with having Trubisky listed at number three at the position.