I know I have a shared it many times, but just in case those haven’t heard it before when it comes to looking at teams entering the playoffs who have the best chance to win the Super Bowl I look for teams finishing the season strong. Even teams that can rack up 11 to 13 wins could do so early and not be playing their best football as they enter the postseason. On the other hand, teams that are getting on a roll as they head to the playoffs hold a distinct advantage.

Unfortunately for the Steelers, the two hottest teams in the AFC just so happen to be matched up against each other in the first round. The two longest winning streaks in the AFC are the Buffalo Bills with five wins and the Pittsburgh Steelers with three wins. It is a safe conclusion to say that these two teams would fit into the category of being on an upward trajectory.

So is being the second hottest AFC team a worthless endeavor if they just so happen to play the hottest team the very first week of the playoffs?

For this could be true, one must first deermine if the Buffalo Bills are the hottest team in the AFC right now. On the most recent episode of the Steelers Stat Geek podcast, I looked at how the Steelers and the Buffalo Bills ranked over the last five games to look at the current Buffalo Bills winning streak. The Bills obviously have some decent rankings, but they surprisingly are actually worse than their rankings when looking at the entire season. The Buffalo Bills offense is 8th in yardage and 10th in points over the last five games, but they were actually 4th in yardage and 6th in points looking at the entire season. When it comes to their defense, there’s not as much of a discrepancy. The Bills are 4th in yardage and 15th points over the last five games while being 9th in yardage and 4th in points throughout the entire regular season.

When looking at the Steelers over their last five games, their offensive yardage is 17th in the NFL and points scored is 15th which is an improvement from their season-long rankings of 25th in yards and 28th in points. The Steelers also saw some improvement defensively as they are 14th in yards and 8th in points over the last five games while being 21st in yards and 16th in points throughout the season.

When looking at these numbers, while the Steelers are better over the last five games than they were compared to the whole season where the Bills did not have as good a rankings, it should be noted the Bills overall are ranked better. Ultimately, despite not trending in the right direction, being at the top is more significant.

But after looking at the Bills winning streak, what if we just look at the Steelers most recent winning streak and include just those games?

When looking at just the last three games of the season, the Bills offense is 11th in yards and 12th in points where the Steelers offense is 5th in yards and 5th in points. When comparing the two teams on defense, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The Bills are ranked higher in yardage surrendered as they are 8th in the NFL over the last three games were the Steelers are 15th. But when it comes to points surrendered, the Bills are 10th in the NFL where the Steelers are 2nd.

But sometimes when looking at a three-game sample, the opponents can really shape what’s going on. But in this case, that is not the issue. When looking at the final winning percentage (which determines strength of victory) of the three teams the Buffalo Bills faced to finish the season, they were 20–31 for a .392 winning percentage. As for the Steelers, the teams they faced finished 31–20 for the season with all three having winning records. Their strength of victory comes in at .608 over the last three games. Granted Baltimore was resting some players, but even a semi-resting Baltimore team could be considered a stronger opponent than the Los Angeles Chargers were down the stretch.

To go beyond just the overall rankings of the offense, here is an in-depth breakdown of various offensive stats comparing the Steelers to the Bills over the last three games as calculated by SCN’s on Andrew Paladino:

The spread for Sunday LARGELY discounts the Steelers Offensive performances over the last 3 weeks, specifically compared with the #Bills.

Head to Head, the #Steelers have the advantage in 18/23 categories with Mason Rudolph under center#Steelers #HereWeGo pic.twitter.com/0UwbC4zlRG

— Allegheny Andy (@CityOf_6) January 10, 2024

Just to be fair, even though they don’t stand out as much as the offense, here are the defensive numbers over the last three games as well:

The #Steelers and #Bills defensive statistics in the last 3 games.

Highlights

✦ The Bills are much better against the pass, while the Steelers are better against the run.
✦ The Steelers are MUCH better in the red-zone, allowing their opponent only a 22% success rate pic.twitter.com/LFmRp1ChUQ

— Allegheny Andy (@CityOf_6) January 11, 2024

There’s no denying  when you look at the entire season for both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Buffalo Bills that the Bills have had much more sustained production throughout the 17 games. But when talking about teams who are “hot” heading into the playoffs, looking at the most recent sample size can give an accurate picture of where the team currently stands. None of this ultimately matters as the outcome on the field on Sunday afternoon will ultimately determine who moves on in the 2023 postseason, but the Steelers being a double-digit underdog looks to be a bit of a stretch based on the recent data.