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Target Stats for Justin Fields to Secure the QB1 Job in Pittsburgh

We’ve all been following the Pittsburgh Steelers Quarterback saga closely this offseason, and boy has it been a rollercoaster. For the plugged-in fan, it was quite apparent that Head Coach Mike Tomlin was eyeing seasoned vet Russell Wilson as the team’s starter from the jump, and Justin Fields never really had a shot at out-playing Russ for that title.

Then the calf happened.

Suddenly, Justin Fields was pushed into the spotlight for Steelers Nation and the rest of the NFL cognoscenti with the Steelers taking an over-cautious approach to the 36-year-old Wilson’s hobbled lower leg. Fields played well in Preseason, and then, with the calf acting up on Wilson again ahead of the Steelers’ season opener in Atlanta, Fields was given the nod as QB1. He played well again, taking care of the football and operating within the structure of new Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith’s gameplan, and the Steelers came away with an 18-10 victory over the Falcons despite not scoring a single TD.

Now, according to Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, sources have indicated that Justin Fields is expected to start at least the next 2 games for Pittsburgh (@ Broncos, vs. Chargers) while Wilson continues to rehab his calf and get back into playing shape. For Fields, this is his best opportunity to put a stranglehold on the QB1 job and push the Steelers into the future, right now.

Would the Steelers really sit the former 1st Round pick in favor of Wilson if the team is 3-0 and the offense moves and protects the ball at least as effectively as they did in the opener? Obviously, the offense will need to score some TDs over the next 2 weeks, but what other stat-lines does Justin Fields need to put up to make this an easy decision for Mike Tomlin?

Is it as simple as protecting the football and making the plays that are there? I think Russ is at least capable of that, so that doesn’t feel like enough for Fields in my book.

Does his production need to be otherworldly? I don’t think it has to be that extreme either.

As with most things, the reality probably lies somewhere in the middle. That said, here is what I believe Justin Fields needs to produce statistically over the next 2 weeks to secure the QB1 job moving forward with no questions asked.

RECORD: 2-0 (3-0 Overall)

Yes. For Justin Fields to keep the starting job, I believe the minimum requirement is that the Steelers win these next 2 games while he is at the helm. Barring something unexpected like a barrage of injuries or a fluky game from the defense where Fields plays outstanding but the team still loses, I think a perfect record heading into the team’s Week 4 matchup at Indianapolis is imperative.

INDIVIDUAL STATS: 400+ Passing Yds, 3 Total TDs, 75+ Rushing Yds, 1 or fewer giveaways

Again, I’m not asking for anything earth-shattering here, but Field’s individual statistical production should be at least what you would expect from Russell Wilson as a passer, plus a significant contribution from Fields in the running game. We know Russ takes care of the football and can hit on the routine plays routinely, so simply doing that won’t be enough if you’re Justin Fields. However, if he can replicate the type of passing production the team was expecting to get out of Wilson, while also impacting the game with his legs in ways Russ just can’t at this stage of his career, the Steelers would be more likely to stick with the younger, more explosive player moving forward.

TEAM OFFENSIVE STATS: 300+ Total Yds/Gm, 21+ Pts/Gm, 4+ Total TDs, 2 or fewer giveaways, Top 20 EPA/Play

Some of you might scoff at the last team stat listed above, but the Steelers will absolutely value efficiency on the offensive side of the ball when you consider how they want to win football games. This is still a Defense-led team, but the hope is that you can go from decidedly below-average on offense to at least average in 2024 with one, or both, of these QBs. If Justin Fields is leading an efficient ball-control offense with some consistent explosive elements and the team is scoring TDs and taking care of the football, I think the Steelers would be foolish to move on from him in favor of Russell Wilson.

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