Pittsburgh Is In, But Faces a Red-Hot Opponent

It’s official: the Pittsburgh Steelers are in and headed to Orchard Park on Sunday to take on a red-hot team in the Buffalo Bills, who’ve faced similar adversity in 2023. For one, the team fired their offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey, 10 weeks into the season. The Bills did so after dropping to a 5-5 record and a very shaky start. They enter the Wild Card round winning 5 in row, and 6 of their last 7. Their only loss in that stretch came in overtime against the Eagles on November 26th. The team has literally “unleashed hell in December”, and much like Pittsburgh, narrowly squeaked into the dance. The Black and Gold, releasing Canada after a 13-10 loss against the Browns, have found their stride with help from 3rd string veteran Mason Rudolph, and an explosive running duo in Harris and Warren. Despite an improbable winning streak of their own, the spread for Sunday has the Bills favored by nearly 10 points. If the Steelers want any chance at Victory, they’ll likely need to do (or not do) the following:

Do: Pound the Rock 

The simple fact of that matter is that Pittsburgh’s rushing unit is hot. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have combined for over 1000 yards on the ground in the last 8 games, nearly half of that amount coming in the last 3 wins. Despite finishing 13th in total ground yards on the year, the only team with more yards since Week 16 is the Arizona Cardinals (quick hats off to former Steeler James Conner on an incredible season). On the flip side, 2023 was an overall forgettable year for Buffalo’s rush defense, who finished 30th/32 in yards per rush allowed (4.72). Despite buckling down in the last 3 games, allowing 4.3 yards/rush, the Steelers need continue their hot streak by simply pounding the rock.

Do: Limit Buffalo on 3rd Down and in the Red Zone 

The Bills have an incredible ability to convert. They finished the season as the league’s best 3rd-down-offense, converting on nearly 50% of their attempts. To make things worse (for the Steelers), the Bills ranked in the top 4 in the red zone, converting on 65% of their trips. Pittsburgh must continue their “bend, don’t break” mentality to limit these ridiculous conversion rates. Pittsburgh defense ranks in the top 14 in third down success allowed. In terms of red zone success prevention, they are ranked 7th. All this to say that even if the Bills convert on late downs, the Steelers must keep them out of the paint.

Do: Keep a Spotter on Josh Allen 

To build on the topic of converting, did everyone catch Josh Allen’s game-sealing 3rd down conversion rush to clinch the AFC East last weekend? I was sitting on my couch wondering how the heck Miami let it happen. In the event you missed it, I’ve shared the replay below. It’s no secret that Josh Allen can create with his legs. It’s perhaps one of his most dangerous characteristics. Part of the reason Pittsburgh is headed north on Sunday is because of that very play. Josh Allen plowed through 3 Miami defenders, extending past the sticks and allowing his team to essentially run out the clock. To avoid a similar outcome, the Steelers will likely need a spotter on Josh Allen. The ‘who’ is a great question. I had someone reach out to me on X saying that our designated spotter is Minkah Fitzpatrick. Other are saying the role should go to Mark Robinson. Whoever it is on Sunday will need to be alive, alert, awake, athletic, and keep a lid on #17!

Josh Allen scrambles for 15 on a 3rd-and-13, giving the Bills a first down. pic.twitter.com/XcHhBSdJLD

— The Comeback (@thecomeback) January 8, 2024

Do: Pressure Allen Early and Often

We likely all know Josh Allen’s kryptonite. For whatever reason, the guys LOVES to chuck the ball to the other team. Not only did Josh Allen throw the second most interceptions of any quarterback in 2023 (18), he averages around 1 pick in every game. Because of his carelessness, his team sits in the bottom 10 of the turnover category, giving the ball away almost 30 times this season. On the contrary, Pittsburgh sits in the top 2 in preventing turnovers. What’s interesting is that of Allen’s 18 interceptions in 2023, 12 occurred in the first quarter, 10 occurred when his team was leading, and 11 occurred between his teams own 20-50 yard-line. If the Steelers defense can get pressure on Josh Allen early in the game and early in drives, than the Steelers have a good chance of forcing one. It’s important to note that despite Josh Allen being the league’s top quarterback when pressured, the Steeler’s edge unit is not something to take lightly. Watt’s injury will feature guys who’ve made season changing plays in 2023 (Cough, Cough, Nick Herbig).

Do: Protect the Middle of the Field

A large vulnerability for the Pittsburgh defense is between the hashes. An area where decimated Pittsburgh linebacker and secondary rooms have been taken advantage of in the latter half of the season. Even worse, it’s one of the the areas that Josh Allen thrives in. In the last game alone, a large majority of his completions went to through the middle of the field, 1 of which went past the pylons. What helps for Pittsburgh is that the MLB room has been hot. Mark Robinson had a career game in season finale against the Ravens, and he’ll likely be a good compliment to a now healthy Elandon Roberts, who’s had an incredible year. I’d be remiss to leave out ‘off-the-couch’ linebacker Myles Jack, who’s been elevated from the practice squad in the last few matchups and highly contributed to the Steelers success towards the end. The Steelers will need considerable help from all of these guys if they want to advance.

Don’t: Turn the Ball Over 

The Sunday forecast in Buffalo has varied over the past few days. Initially calling for snow throughout the day, meteorologists are now only predicting high winds, with flurries after sunset. Did I mention Saturday’s forecast? 1-3 inches of snowfall are expected throughout the day and into the evening. It’s likely that in addition to windy conditions, the Steelers will be dealing with a wet field. Whatever the weather may be, Pittsburgh MUST protect the rock. The team walked out of a typhoon in Baltimore giving away only 2 of 4 fumbles, and dealt with a ton of bobbled footballs. Jaylen Warren was particularly bad in this department, almost fumbling the game away on numerous occasions. A topic on X this Week has shed light on Warren’s ball-security issues for much of the season, specifically in rainy-practice conditions. While Warren should and will get opportunities to touch the ball, the Steelers will likely lean on a red-hot Najee Harris, who just became the first RB in Team history to rush for over 1000 scrimmage yards in each of his first 3 seasons.

Warren is allowed to have a bad game. He’s done so much for this offense. But ball security is in his head now. He’s not seeing the field clearly and not running as hard because of it. That’s 4-5 loose balls with him today. He may need to sit the rest of this game.

— Trai Essex (@TraiDay79) January 7, 2024

Don’t: Let James Cook get hot

While Pittsburgh has found a great deal of success on the ground this season, Buffalo has found even more. In 2023, the Bills rank 1st in  rushing first downs/game (9.3), 7th in total rushing yards/game (130), and 9th in yards/rush (4.2). James Cook, who had has some ridiculous performances this season, including a 179 yard game against the Dallas Cowboys in Mid December, has amassed over 1100 total yards on the ground this season, seating him 4th in that category behind the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and Kyren Williams. He is also averaging around 4.7 yards per carry (8th highest in that category). On bright spot is that the Steelers rush defense has allowed the 4th fewest rushing first downs in the NFL, around 5.6 per game. They’ll have their work cut out for them on the ground, and Buffalo will likely lean on Cook as the catalyst for rushing success.

Don’t: Get Too Conservative

It’s been a very conservative year for Pittsburgh’s Offense. While the Steelers Offense are almost guaranteed to lean on their rushing duo, it’s important that they establish balance early on. While the Pittsburgh’s Defense ranks 6th in points per game allowed, Buffalo Offense ranks 6th in scoring. What I’m am alluding to is that fact the Bills have a good chance to get some points on the board this weekend. In that regard, it’s critical that Mason Rudolph and Company establish balance, as it’s something they’ve had success in down the stretch. If the rushing unit is a tad slow, it’s important for Mike Tomlin to allow Rudolph to sling it around. In 2023, Mason Rudolph has the highest completion % among NFL Quarterbacks with 50 or more completions. He’s averaged nearly 10 yards per completion, and is one of the key reasons the Steelers are in the dance. In other words, trust #2, and let him cook!

TAE TIME @Juiceup__3

📺: #PITvsBUF 1/14 at 1 PM ET on CBS pic.twitter.com/E6eVZ9nz4M

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) January 8, 2024

Don’t Lose 

This Don’t is pretty simple. Jeff Hartman of Steel Curtain Network said it best following the Steelers 3 game losing streak. Jeff was asked what one thing would help the struggling Black and Gold. He simply said: ‘a win’. I know the majority of Steelers a fans including myself are just elated that Pittsburgh made it in. Others believe that the Steelers HAVE to win to destroy the ‘X number of years without a postseason victory’ narrative. A loss for Pittsburgh would only bring that narrative to the forefront, liking putting clouds around the incredible coaching job Mike Tomlin has done in 2024. Lemonade from stones. A win for Pittsburgh would destroy that narrative and further cement Tomlin’s Hall of Fame Legacy, even for the head coach’s harshest of critics.