The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5), despite riding a 2-game losing streak, have qualified for the Postseason, and still control their destiny in the AFC North. With wins in their remaining games at home against the Kansas City Chiefs (Christmas Day) and the Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh would lock up the division crown and a guaranteed home playoff game.

Lose one, or both, of their remaining games, and you’re looking at a Wild Card spot and a trip to a division winner’s home venue for the first round of the playoffs.

Let’s dive into the Steelers’ playoff scenarios and most likely opponents depending on where they end up.

1. Steelers Win the AFC North Title

If the Steelers win the AFC North, the most likely scenario is that they will finish as the AFC’s 3rd Seed (40% chance) behind Kansas City (14-1) and Buffalo (12-3). They would face the AFC’s 6th Seed in the friendly confines of Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. They were mathematically eliminated from landing the 1 Seed after Kansas City’s win over the Texans, but there is a long-shot scenario where they could end up as the 2 Seed (<10% chance) in the conference. If they win out and Buffalo loses their final two games (vs. Jets, @ Patriots), Pittsburgh would move up a spot in the seeding and play against the 7th Seed on Wild Card Weekend.

If the Steelers clinch the 3rd Seed, their most likely opponent would be one of the Los Angeles Chargers, the Denver Broncos, or the rival Baltimore Ravens, depending on how those teams finish out their seasons. Here are the records and remaining schedules for those three squads:

Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) – @ Patriots, @ Raiders | 60% chance to earn 6th Seed
Denver Broncos (9-6) – @ Bengals, vs. Chiefs | 14% chance to earn 6th Seed
Baltimore Ravens (10-5) – @ Texans, vs. Browns | 12% chance to earn 6th Seed

Most Likely Full Scenario:

Pittsburgh Steelers (3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (6)
Win: Travel to face Buffalo Bills (2) in Divisional Round

2. Steelers Earn a Wild Card Spot

If Baltimore were to overtake the Steelers in the AFC North race, Pittsburgh would most likely finish as the AFC’s 5th Seed (39% chance), owning tie-breakers over both the Chargers and the Broncos due to head-to-head victories over both of those squads earlier this season. If they finish with a same or better record than those 2 teams, they will be the top Wild Card team and would head either to Houston (9-6, 88% chance for 4th Seed) or Baltimore (<10% chance for 4th Seed).

If Pittsburgh loses out, though, the 6th seed (14% chance) and even 7th seed (<10% chance) come into play. If both the Chargers and Broncos concurrently win out, they would back into the playoffs once again as the final Wild Card team in the AFC.

Most Likely Full Scenario:

Pittsburgh Steelers (5) @ Houston Texans (4)
Win: Travel to face Kansas City Chiefs in Divisional Round

Obviously, fans of the Black and Gold would not be thrilled with many of the options listed under Scenario 2. We want a Division Title! A home playoff game! We want to be feared by whichever opponent crosses the Roberto Clemente Bridge! The good news is, Pittsburgh is playoff bound. They will be a part of January football and have a chance to make their mark in a wide-open AFC.

Which scenario is most favorable in your opinion? Let me know in the comments and be sure to stay tuned to SCN for all your Pittsburgh Steelers playoff news!