For those of you who have followed fansfirstsports.com for the majority of the season, you know I’ve been keeping a weekly look at the Power Rankings throughout the year. As the Postseason approaches for some, and an early offseason draws near for others, I wanted to take a deeper dive into each squad.

In this 4-part series entitled “How Did We Get Here?” I’ll break down all 32 teams into four 8-team tiers, starting with my list of “Super Bowl Contenders”, then “Playoff Contenders” before diving into the more offseason-centric groups titled “A Year Away” and “Reset and Rebuild”.

In Part One, I’ve ranked the 8 teams I believe have a legitimate case to make for getting to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans. We’ll dive into the big season storyline for each squad that got them to this spot with just 4 weeks to play, as well as a major area of concern that could leave these teams empty handed when it’s time to pass around the Lombardi.

Let’s dive in!

NOTE: All Super Bowl odds taken from ESPN Bet NFL Futures.

1. DETROIT LIONS (12-1)

SB Odds: +225
Driving Force: Offensive Versatility
Biggest Question Mark: Defensive Attrition

As of Week 15, the Detroit Lions are almost universally considered to be the NFL’s best team, and the biggest reason why is that nobody can beat you on offense in as many ways as OC Ben Johnson’s group. The OL is a tone-setting force, paving the way for a dynamic running game that wears out defenses and sets up the most lethal Play Action passing game in football. This group is fireworks every week, and they’re good enough to win a Championship.

On the other side of the ball, injuries have really taken their toll. The losses of big-time contributors on all 3 levels of the Defense have left the Lions toothless at times up front and in the secondary. With stars like Aiden Hutchinson and Alex Anzalone watching from the sidelines, defensive mastermind Aaron Glenn has worked wonders keeping that unit competitive to this point in the season. Can it continue? We’ll find out.

2. BUFFALO BILLS (10-3)

SB Odds: +600
Driving Force: Josh Allen for MVP
Biggest Question Mark: Major Holes on Defense

The Bills are the best team in the AFC, despite Week 14’s tough loss to the Rams in the highest scoring game of the season. Final score aside, that game showed why Buffalo should be considered the class of the American Football Conference. QB Josh Allen set an NFL Record as the only Quarterback in League history to combine for 3 passing and 3 rushing TDs in a single game. Allen is on another planet this season, operating as Superman for an offense lacking big-name contributors but fielding a complimentary and explosive group led by the MVP front-runner. His presence on the field is all Buffalo needs to be a real contender in 2024.

On the other side of the ball, questions abound. It’s not a very physical defense in 2024, a departure from recent iterations of HC Sean McDermott’s group. Good rushing teams have run over the Bills, and for teams like the Rams with elite weapons on the outside, this secondary feels inadequate to handle explosive passing attacks. Lucky for the Bills, the AFC isn’t necessarily loaded with elite passing offenses, outside of Baltimore. The issues on that side of the ball, though, could end up being too much to overcome in January.

3. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-2)

SB Odds: +500
Driving Force: The Trenches
Biggest Question Mark: Passing Offense

When it’s time to talk about the Philadelphia Eagles, you have to start up front on both sides of the ball. On offense, it’s a road-grading offensive line paving the way for RB Saquon Barkley and his potentially record-setting rushing season. They’re no slouch in pass-pro either, helping to keep QB Jalen Hurts’ jersey clean and the offense humming. The other side of the ball might be even better, with 2nd year All-World DT Jalen Carter leading the way for a menacing Philly Front 4 that absolutely takes over games with regularity. Beating the Eagles means being more physical than them, and that is a rare feat for any NFL Squad in the trenches.

It’s been well-documented this week about the Eagles struggles in the passing game, with AJ Brown complaining and Brandon Graham hopping on a podcast to give his 2-cents worth on the situation. It is true the passing offense has not been good in recent weeks, and QB Jalen Hurts has not looked good in obvious passing situations where he’s not being propped up by the ground game’s impact via play-action and RPO schemes. The Eagles definitely need to remedy this and fast if they want to hang with Detroit in the NFC.

4. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (12-1)

SB Odds: +425
Driving Force: Finding a Way
Biggest Question Mark: Are They Actually Good?

Nobody has been luckier than the Chiefs in 2024. At what point do we just come to the conclusion that maybe KC makes it’s own luck in a lot of these situations? It’s not like they don’t have talent. Patrick Mahomes is still the QB. The separating factor to me is that the Chiefs rarely make the big mistake. They have been far from explosive or consistent in 2024, but they just don’t beat themselves in weighty moments. While it has been uncanny how many times the other team has made the devastating mistake to the Chiefs benefit, there comes a time when even luck can become part of a teams’ identity. We saw it at times with the Patriots’ dynasties of the 2000s and 2010s. We’re seeing it again in Kansas City this year.

Are they actually a good football team though? I have my doubts. The offense still grades out as a Top 10 unit by EPA/play, but the defense, which was a Top 5 unit in EPA/play in 2023, has fallen to 17th in that category. Mahomes has a career low Big-Time Throw rate, and basically every metric for explosive plays is down this season. The other factor is that they clearly play down to their opponents, and they do not run away with football games against anybody. That’s a risky way to live, and it may come back to bite them in their quest for a three-peat.

5. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-3)

SB Odds: +2000
Driving Force: Finally Fielding a Professional Offense
Biggest Question Mark: Recent Playoff History

It has been nearly half a decade since the Pittsburgh Steelers have fielded anything close to resembling an NFL-caliber offense. While the defense has perennially held up its end of the bargain, the QB Russell Wilson and OC Arthur Smith-led Steelers offense has been more than just respectable since Wilson’s first start in Week 7. It’s actually been downright good for much of that time frame. Wilson is legitimately playing like a Top 10 QB, and he ranks 9th in EPA/play + CPOE composite grading according to rbsdm.com. While he relies on splash plays down the field more than most QBs, he’s been the league’s best passer on targets of 10+ and 15+ yards downfield in 2024, making up for some of the inconsistency in the short and intermediate passing game. Couple that with a consistent rushing attack and an opportunistic and stingy defense, and you’re looking at one of the most complete teams in football, and a real-life, legitimate contender in 2024.

HC Mike Tomlin is no stranger to winning… unless it’s in the playoffs. The Steelers have not won a postseason matchup in 7 years. Tomlin’s much-ballyhooed defense has been atrocious in those games, giving up an unfathomable 41.5 points/game in their 4 appearances since 2016. What makes 2024 different? They feel like a better team this time around, but the history is what it is… and it isn’t pretty for Steelers fans.

6. GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-4)

SB Odds: +2200
Driving Force: Offensive Skill Position Depth
Biggest Question Mark: Defensive Ceiling

This Packers team is so fun to watch. They’re a strange dichotomy of elite offensive structure and highly variable execution, but that’s what you get by blending the mind of HC Matt LeFleur and the “Favre-ian” antics of QB Jordan Love into the same offense. In totality, it’s a dynamic blend that is boosted by the league’s youngest, and maybe deepest, skill-position group led by WRs Jayden Reed and Christian Watson, and RB Josh Jacobs, who’s physical running style has really opened things up for the Packers this season. That group makes this offense dangerous from anywhere on the field. It’s a championship level offense when Love is dealing to his guys (and not the opponent).

The Packers’ defense was pegged to take a major leap in 2024, and while it’s been good, it most definitely hasn’t been great. They are one of the worst pass-rushing teams in football, and the secondary can be had against good passing attacks. They have the ability to shut teams out in spurts, but can this unit stand up in the biggest games against the league’s most explosive offenses? There’s plenty of reason for concern here.

7. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (11-2)

SB Odds: +1600
Driving Force: Schematic Intricacy on Both Sides of the Ball
Biggest Question Mark: How Far Can Sam Darnold Take Them?

Nobody is coaching their team better than the duo of HC Kevin O’Connell and DC Brian Flores. The Vikings go into every game boasting a schematic advantage over their opponent, and it’s helped Minnesota cruise to a stunning 11-2 record despite the offseason turnover at the game’s most important position. O’Connell’s brilliant game-planning on Offense and Flores’ ability to disguise coverages and create pressure from a multitude of fronts has opponents playing catch up on a regular basis. It’s not all the coaching, but the Vikings scheme up their best players better than almost anyone else, and stars like WR Justin Jefferson and DE Jonathan Greenard do the rest.

QB Sam Darnold has been a revelation at QB so far this season, acting as an elite Point Guard-type distributor for this Vikings offense. Despite the season-long success, there have been stretches where Darnold has struggled, specifically when the play design doesn’t provide a clear win within structure. Can Darnold keep up the overall consistent gameplay that has helped Minnesota reach this point? Or will the more experienced and/or more talented QBs in the NFC like Jared Goff, Jordan Love, and Jalen Hurts elevate their teams beyond what Darnold can when it matters most?

8. BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-5)

SB Odds: +1000
Driving Force: Explosive Offense
Biggest Question Mark: Defensive Inconsistency

The Ravens boast the most dynamic and diverse offense in football with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry leading the way. That combo has been every bit as unstoppable as it was billed to be all offseason, and at times the Ravens have looked like the league’s best team as a result. The passing game has been explosive with WR Zay Flowers and TE Mark Andrews working magic with Lamar both in and out of structure. If the Ravens want to finally get over the hump in 2024, it will be the offense that takes them there.

For all the offense’s dynamism, the defense has been, well, inconsistent. The Front 7 does a great job keeping a lid on opposing rushing attacks, but the secondary has regularly been torched by both great and average passing attacks this season. Losing 2023 DC Mike MacDonald to Seattle has been a big blow schematically for Baltimore, and the lack of superstars on that side of the ball (outside of S Kyle Hamilton and LB Roquan Smith) has left the Ravens scrambling at times to stop opposing offenses. They’ll need this defense to improve drastically for the stretch run if they want re-establish themselves as an AFC Powerhouse in 2024.