Last weekend I outlined some dreadful numbers for the Pittsburgh Steelers when it comes to Week 4 of the NFL season. Not only were the Steelers 5–10 since 2007 in Week 4, they hadn’t won games in Week 3 and Week 4 in the same season since 2004. The numbers were there to show the Steelers were going to have a rough time, but I just refused to believe them.

This week, I’m going to trust the numbers.

The biggest reason I’m going to trust the numbers this week is because they are overwhelmingly in favor of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since 2007, Week 5 has been one of the best weeks for the Pittsburgh Steelers when it comes to their win-loss record. Going 12–3 for an 80% winning percentage, the Steelers have responded strong in Week 5 under coach Mike Tomlin.

But just like last week, there’s even more to it. Once again going back to 2004, the Steelers have only fallen in defeat in both Week 4 and Week 5 one time in the last 20 seasons. I must admit that in six of those years the Steelers had their bye week in either Week 4 or Week 5, therefore they did not have the opportunity to lose both games. But the only season in which they lost both games was in 2022 when the Steelers fell to the New York Jets in Kenny Pickett‘s first NFL action and then lost the next week in Buffalo to the Bills, a game in which they were 14-point underdogs, in Pickett‘s first NFL start.

Since 2007, the Steelers have only lost one game in Week 5 in which they were favored to win. Falling to the Jacksonville Jaguars 30–9 in 2017, the Steelers came up way short after defeating the Baltimore Ravens in Baltimore 26–9 the previous week. So for that season, the Steelers letdown game just happened to come one week later. During that 2017 season, the Steelers went on to win eight-straight games following the loss to the Jaguars.

Although people like to talk about trap games and often like to blame them on the head coach, teams losing who are favored by less than a field goal happens multiple times every week. It’s just the nature of the NFL. But for the Pittsburgh Steelers, what really is important will be their response to their week for defeat. Last season, after the Steelers fell in Houston to the Texans, they returned home to Pittsburgh to defeat the Baltimore Ravens 17–10 in a game where they were home underdogs. So as real as the early-season letdown game is, which typically occurs in Week 4, the bounce game(s) are just as real.

It’s time they do it again.