Contributors: Corey Eckenroth/Jeff Hartman/Dave Schofield

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If the Pittsburgh Steelers had any inclination to make getting the AFCN Crown back easy, they surely missed the memo in Baltimore this past Saturday. The Ravens were victorious with a 34-17 win that could have easily went Pittsburgh’s way, had the Steelers not had so many self inflicted wounds.

Russell Wilson’s fumble deep in the Ravens’ Red Zone, and subsequent breakdown on defense leading to 7 Points Off Turnovers, or POT points as likes to Jeff reference them, was a 14 point swing in itself. It becomes a 14-7 Steelers lead a little over halfway thru the first half. Even if the rest of the first half holds serve, and both the Steelers and Ravens trade FG’s, its 17-10 Steelers instead of the other way around at halftime.

After surviving a Derek Henry rumble for 44 yards into the Steelers Red Zone, Minkah finally comes thru at the most opportune time and secures his first INT of the season, only to have Russell Wilson throw it right back to Marlon Humphrey for a Pick 6. Two costly fumbles from Wilson, and an inability to capitalize on the few opportunities that the Ravens did extend to the Steelers, and it was game over.

What seemed inevitable and easy 3 weeks ago with the Steelers winning the AFC North, now is very tenuous and PIT must fight for every inch of their Playoff seeding lives. The Steelers do control their own destiny, but that starts with facing the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day.

This game proves an opportunity for Mike Tomlin to show the very best side of himself: His ability to get this team to shine when their back is against the proverbial “wall.”

The Steelers must win to continue pace for the AFCN Crown, with the Baltimore Ravens heading to Houston for the Xmas Mid Day Matinee with the Texans. The Texans have been decimated by injuries lately, and will be fighting for their own Playoff lives. If the Ravens were to beat the Texans, then the Steelers will hope to see the Cleveland Browns squat all over the Ravens for a second time this season. Highly doubtful, as the game is in Baltimore and not Cleveland, but so was their first victory regardless of the fact that it was in Cleveland.

The Steelers must win vs the Chiefs at home on Christmas, before getting 10 days off to take on the Bengals at home in the season finale. If they should falter, the schedule is setup for the Ravens to swoop in at the end and take the Division Crown. Their road is surely easier than the Steelers’ schedule. It would be a significant letdown when considering that the AFC Crown was all within their reach this past Saturday.

It’s down to the wire now kiddies! Let’s hit rewind on the week that was, before the Steel Money Crew gives you the parlay to give you some major Christmas cheer!

Review

Corey – I had hopes that Mike Williams could be a prime contributor if given a couple of weeks to acclimate to the Steelers playbook. It could be that, it could be that he cannot shake a true DB1 and get open, heck, it could be that father time suddenly has whooped his rear.

I suddenly know how Andre Dyson of the 2000 TEN Titans Superbowl losing team feels, being a few yards short of paydirt. Dyson was the Titans WR who caught a pass that was tackled a yard short of the endzone as time expired by Rams LB Mike Jones.

I went back and forth with Schofield about Mike Williams in our Slack channel, and originally I was going to give him +70 yds instead of +25 yds. Schofield talked some sense into me and I went with +25 yds. Well, Dave was wrong about Williams on one thing. Williams sucks WORSE than Dave gives him credit for! He missed that +25 yds by ONE LOUSY YARD!

There were perhaps two or three instances where the Steeler could have had Chris Boswell kick another FG in addition to the one he did make, the Russell Wilson fumble drive comes to mind. If for some reason the Steelers stalled out on that drive, Boswell could have theoretically come on to kick what would have amounted to an extra point FG. That would have given Boz the two FG I had him slated for.

The missed opportunities and backbreaking turnovers stalled out the Steelers in this game. As Jeff said on Monday during the Let’s Ride Pod, the Ravens beat the Steelers at their own game with the Turnovers and POT points. Had the Steelers been the ones on the fortuitous end of the bounces on this day, it would be very reasonable to expect that the Steelers would have not only hit the 21-30 Point Band, but I may have missed the Leg because the Steelers would have scored MORE than I expected them to.

It was there. It was RIGHT there, the Division Crown. Now, if you’re the Pittsburgh Steelers, your back is against the wall and you’ve taken a couple wicked body shots the last two weeks with the Eagles and Ravens. How are the Steelers going to respond, with attrition breathing down their neck and the 2x reigning Super Bowl Champs ringing the Acrisure Stadium doorbell for a Christmas donnybrook? We will soon find out!

• Mike Williams +25 Rec Yds (+170) – Miss
• Chris Boswell OVER 1.5 FG Made (-125) – Miss
• TOTAL Points Band PIT: 21-30pts (+190) – Miss

Total Parlay Odds: +1000

Winning Bet of $10 = $110.00

Jeff – Last week my parlay missed for the Steelers game vs. the Ravens, but what else is new? There was a time when I felt like as the season progressed I was getting better at picking my spots, but that has not been the case. My parlay struggles continue…

Here was my parlay from last week:

3 Leg Parlay

• Russell Wilson Passing Yards: 225+ (+140) MISS
• Najee Harris Receiving Yards: 25+ (+245) MISS
• Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards: 25+ (140) HIT

Another parlay ruined, and this one was on me. I thought the Steelers would look to spread the football to the running backs, plural, but they only targeted Jaylen Warren as a viable threat in the passing game. Again, not the best look on my part. So, another missed parlay. With that said, time to move on.

Dave – I played it really safe this ast week and it did not pay off…

• Jaylen Warren Receiving yards: 25+ (+115) HIT
• PIT Steelers: +6.5 (-112)  MISS
• Derrick Henry Rushing yards O/U: UNDER 85.5 (-115)  MISS

While Jaylen Warren did get going in the running game, the Steelers did not keep the game close or keep a lid on Derrick Henry. They just didn’t get the job done.

This Week’s Picks

Corey – Kansas City Chiefs at the Pittsburgh Steelers for a Christmas Day NFL present direct from Roger Goodell to your living room. This game will surely come down to how well the Defensive Lines play for both teams. Pittsburgh’s Run D was shaky and exposed in the loss to the Ravens, but the Chiefs surely don’t have the same dynamism from their committee approach with Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco as the Ravens do with Derek Henry.

The Chiefs strength this year lies not in Mahomes and Co. on offense, but rather on their defense, led by stud Defensive Tackle Chris Jones. His availability of this game is in question, along with rising young star CB DJ Humphries, both of whom are integral to the Chiefs success. The Chief’s LB corp is still very good, and the entire unit is still led by defensive genius Steve Spagnuolo, he of the “I beat Brady and Darth Hoodie in the Super Bowl, twice,” fame.

Maybe this meme isn’t so far off for this game:

The problem that the Devil has, is that when he goes to bed at night, he looks under the bed to make sure that TJ Watt isn’t under there. The ‘Monster-That-Tomlin-Grew’ is scarier than Hell itself!!!

The Pittsburgh running game will establish itself with formidable Chris Jones absent from his usual DT spot. This will create an opportunity for the Steelers to exploit the middle of the defense running the ball. Enter Najee Harris, who hasn’t had a 100 yard game in awhile. A game as important as this, and a performance to shake off the Eagles fumble, get Najee the big game he’s been lacking this season.

George Pickens coming back will be a huge boon to Russell Wilson, as would any type of missed time by Chiefs CB DJ Humphries. If Humphries is out, I look for Pickens to have a big game back from injury. Chalk him up for a TD bomb from Wilson.

Calvin Austin III looks to be the biggest recipient of George Pickens coming back. I’d have to think that even if Williams is WR2, CA3 is still going to get prime looks, and he has been the best contributor in Pickens’ absence. He breaks out again here against the Chiefs.

• Najee Harris ANYTIME TD Scorer (+140) 
• George Pickens Anytime TD Scorer (+170)
• Calvin Austin III +50 Receiving Yards (+370)

Total Parlay Odds: +3000

$10 Winning Bet = $31.00

*** BONUS BET ***

Santa Watt is going to deliver a Christmas Present performance the Steelers haven’t seen since James Harrison abruptly announced his arrival to the NFL world back on that memorable MNF game against the Ravens so many years ago. Watt continues to show why he is the best LB in the NFL today, and racks up 6 tackles, 4 for loss, 2 Sacks, a Forced Fumble, a Fumble Recovery sounds good,.

As crazy as that stat line would be, it STLL wouldn’t come close to the stat line Harrison had that night: 10 Tackles, 9 Solo, 3.5 Sacks, 1 INT, 3 Forced Fumbles, and 1 Fumble Recovery. Still one of the single greatest defensive performances I’ve ever seen live or on TV.

• TJ WATT to Have 1+ Sack in Each Half (+600)

$10 Winning Bet = $70.00 

Jeff – This week’s parlay…which I am taking a unique approach to in this game. I said the same thing last week, and we know how that played out. That’s fine with me, sometimes you just need to take a risk or two.

3 Leg Parl

• Calvin Austin III Receiving Yards: 40+ (+190)
• Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards: 40+ (320)
• Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards: 25+ (-160)

$10 bet = $200.00

In case you couldn’t tell, I think the Steelers will wisely use their running backs in the receiving game to keep the pass rush at bay, and get some free yards. But I am trying to learn from my mistake last week and stick to Warren being the primary receiver. Will the Chiefs allow Warren to run wild? I highly doubt it, but will they allow 40 yards receiving for Warren, I’m banking on it. At this point, I’ll just keep throwing stuff against the wall in hopes something will finally stick.

Dave – As I’ve said before, I hate betting on a short week as anything can happen. But I’ll still give it a shot.

• Jaylen Warren Receiving yards: 25+ (+130)
• Calvin Austin receptions O/U: OVER 2.5 (+110)
• Russell Wilson passing touchdowns: 2+ (+110) 

Total Odds: +700

Winning Bet of $10 = $80.00

Are you buying our picks? What kind of parlay did YOU build this week? Let us know below and make sure to check out all of our other great content over at Steel Curtain Network and Fans First Sports Network, and make sure to check out the full lineup of all our great podcasts wherever you get your Pods!

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