Betting on the offensive overhaul to improve the Steelers defense
This has been an offseason of big changes for the Steelers. Every year brings a revamped team with new circumstances, but the dial has been turned to eleven on this one. No one knows quite what to expect out of this team.
The money coming in on the over/under for wins tells a tale of confusion. The Steelers lead the league in amount of money wagered that they will hit the over, and they also lead the league in the amount of money wagered that they will fall short. The Steelers might be the biggest enigma of all the teams in the league, which feels odd for an organization known for its stable and predictable nature.
Much attention has been paid to the offense due to all the upheaval and complete overhaul it received, and that is understandable. The defense has received less attention, but those betting the under might want to reconsider thinking what T.J. Watt and company could do with a competent offense helping them out.
The offense averaged 60.5 plays per game last season, which is near the bottom of the rankings at 26th in the league. When it looked like the defense was wearing down and getting tired last year, that wasn’t your imagination. Now that a ball control physical offensive line is being constructed with a quarterback that can run play action and make accurate deep throws, time of possession and number of plays should be much improved. A rested defense means a fast and disruptive defense.
The defense average starting position was 21st in the league last season. That’s not great. This offense should be able to do a better job at flipping the field and with a new and more consistent punter, the defense should enjoy more cushion behind them.
The big stat is points per game. The Steelers averaged a measly 17.9 points per game last year, just 28th out of 32 teams. That’s a lot of pressure in today’s NFL. It is a historically bad number for the team. You have to go all the way back to 1988 to find a worse scoring effort for Pittsburgh. Barring catastrophic injuries, I can’t see this current offense repeating that low of an output. They would all have to sleep in and forget to go to the stadium or something for several games.
The defense held opponents to 17 or fewer points seven times. The team record for those games was 6-1. Who can forget only giving up 13 points to the Browns and still losing by three points? The average difference for those games was just 9 points, and that is helped a lot by the last game against the Bengals. Remove that game from the equation and it drops to just a margin of 6.2 points to the good. Which is bad. For those of you proficient in basic math, that means the defense gave up more than 17 points ten times. The team won four of those games and lost six. Ten times the defense held opponents to 20 points or less. The team still lost two of those games, which is not good, Bob.
Considering the almost record setting awfulness of the offensive stats last year, this season has to be better just by default. New coordinator, new assistant coaches, new players…the overhaul was long overdue and much needed. Not only will it rev up the engine for time of possession, field position, and points scored, but now the defense can play on 110 octane race gas and fly around doing what they do best. This defense has the potential to be great, and its biggest improvement could be coming from the other side of the ball.
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