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Are teams avoiding Minkah Fitzpatrick?

There are a lot of different narratives when it comes to the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers. What is likely true with most fan bases, but can definitely be observed in Steelers’ Nation, is how things are perceived often fluctuates week to week depending on the success of the team. We see it in Steeler fans, and I’m not going to pretend like it doesn’t happen with every team.

One particular narrative for the 2024 season which has been holding true regardless of outcome revolves around former All Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and his inability to have any interceptions over the last two seasons. While some who don’t break down the game to a moderate degree want to simply say that Fitzpatrick has been terrible because they can’t read those type of things on a stat line and that’s all they have to judge, this statement is an overreaction.

One thing the Steelers coaches have said in the past is that teams are simply avoiding Fitzpatrick. But does this statement hold up to scrutiny?

Let’s see what the numbers have to say.

First, there’s no doubt in the number that Minkah Fitzpatrick has zero interceptions this year. It’s indisputable. So while somebody may see this as making excuses because this number is the only one that matters, nothing else that follows is going to sway your opinion. But still, I’m going to put the data out there.

When it comes to statistics, particularly ones that are considered “advanced statistics“ formulated by various outlets, they are the epitome of an unofficial statistic. It’s based on what these places think is happening, and it doesn’t always mean they are right. A player may be credited with giving up a touchdown reception because they were the closest player to the receiver when really it was someone else who completely blew the coverage and this player was going out of their way to try to keep a big play from happening. So every one of these numbers would have some context based on film. Still, it’s the best we have at getting the data.

For this exercise, I’m using data from Pro Football Focus (PFF). Don’t flip out, this has nothing to do with their grades. This has to do with their statistics that they keep. When it comes to things such as alignment and these types of stats, PFF is mostly reliable. As I’ve said in the past, I’m not a big fan of how they keep sacks because they don’t award 0.5 of a sack and instead issue a whole one to each player. Otherwise, their data seems to mostly be on par.

According to PFF, Minkah Fitzpatrick has only been targeted 29 times this season on 554 coverage snaps. I find this number very interesting because, as I said before, there can be times where a player is credited for being targeted when really they are just the ones making the play. I can think of several times this season where Fitzpatrick was deemed to be the targeted defender simply because it was a short catch over the middle beyond who was likely the actual defender and Fitzpatrick came up to make the tackle. I can think of others where he came over to help on a deep pass where either the coverage was blown or the defender was beat. But even if these are the case, appearing in 14 games this comes out to barely two targets per game.

So where does this number fall compared to the rest of the NFL? First of all, it should be noted that Minkah Fitzpatrick has played the eighth most coverage snaps of any player in the NFL, and third most among safeties. Of all players who have played more coverage snaps than Fitzpatrick, the only one who has been targeted less times is Detroit safety Kirby Joseph at 23. It should also be noted that Joseph has seven interceptions this season. Looking at all players in the top 10 of coverage snaps, the next closest targets behind Fitzpatrick is safety Camryn Bynum of the Miami Dolphins with 38 targets. After that, it is Ravens’ safety Kyle Hamilton with 56. All other players in the top 10 for coverage snaps have been targeted more than 65 times with the top being 86 by the Vikings Byron Murphy.

I will say that when it comes to the players in the lower end of targets with high coverage snaps, albeit typically more than what Fitzpatrick has been targeted, they were at the safety position. When it comes to cornerbacks, their number of targets are much higher.

Looking strictly at players on the Pittsburgh Steelers, there are five players who have been targeted more than Fitzpatrick and they are all with at least 56 targets. Those players are Joey Porter Jr. (67), Patrick Queen (64), DeShon Elliott (58), Beanie Bishop (56), and Donte Jackson (56). Fitzpatrick is actually tied with Payton Wilson with 29 targets but with less than half as many coverage snaps (252).

So is Minkah Fitzpatrick being targeted less than other Steelers defenders? Yes he is. Is it a crazy amount how much less the teams are constantly avoiding him? You can draw that conclusion for yourself. But I will offer you one more comparison. After the Steelers Week 1 victory in Atlanta, they admitted they were specifically avoiding safety Jesse Bates. It could appear that other teams are avoiding Bates as well. On the season, Bates has been targeted 32 times, three more than Minkah Fitzpatrick, while playing six less coverage snaps. So if you draw the conclusion that teams are avoiding Bates, it’s likely the same conclusion should be drawn for Fitzpatrick as well.

It’s undeniable Minkah Fitzpatrick does not have any interceptions this season. I will say that the player who has played the most coverage snaps in the NFL this season, Brandon Stevens of the Baltimore Ravens who has 621, does not have an interception as well. Sticking with Baltimore, safety Kyle Hamilton, who has played 551 covered snaps and has been targeted 42 times, also does not have an interception on the season.

The bottom line is interceptions are the number that most fans look at when it comes to defensive stats. While they are important, they are not the only measuring stick. Saying a player is terrible because they don’t have any interceptions is very narrow minded. But as any of these players would say, getting their hands on the football for an interception is ultimately what they’re looking to do.

 

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