Steelers Sweep the Ravens

The Pittsburgh Steelers are fresh off a 17-10 Week 18 Victory in Baltimore, thanks in part to an incredible defensive effort and 150+ yards on the ground from ‘thunder and lightning’ duo of Najee Harris (112 yards) and Jaylen Warren (33 yards). Despite resting some key pieces on defense, the Ravens entered the game leading the league in touchdown prevention %, or the % of offensive drives that don’t result in touchdowns. In other words, they rarely let their opponents into the end-zone.

The Steelers found paint twice on Saturday, one on the ground with Harris, and one through the air with a beautiful threaded ball from Rudolph to Johnson that went for 71 yards. While it seemed to be an overall mediocre performance from Mason Rudolph, the stat sheet painted a different story. Mason Rudolph completed 90% of his passes on Saturday night. In fact, he didn’t have a single incompletion after the 1st Quarter. Mason Rudolph finished with passer rating of 115, a QBR of nearly 70, had around 7.5 yards per completion, and didn’t throw a single pick, despite having 1 or 2 very dangerous throws. Most importantly, the veteran QB did what he needed to do for his team walk out with a victory. The same can be said about his last 3 weeks as a starter

An Impressive Stretch

Among NFL Quarterbacks having 50 or more completions in 2023, Mason Rudolph ranks 1st in Completion % (76%), 1st in Passer Rating (117.0), and 1st in QBR (72.9). He hasn’t had finished with a passer rating lower than 112 in each of his 3 starts. In contrast, Kenny Pickett hasn’t finished with passer rating higher than 109 (Week 3) and has averaged a rating of 80 on the season. I will add that Mason Rudolph encountered defenses of varying effectiveness in Weeks 16 and 17, facing the Bengals and Seahawks respectively. To adjust for the varying defensive strengths, his raw QBR from these games was recalibrated downwards. Conversely, in Week 18 against the formidable Baltimore defense, his initial QBR of 50.13 was adjusted upwards by more than 18 points to 68.75, reflecting the high caliber of the Ravens’ defensive performance throughout the season.

The Rudolph Effect on Pittsburgh’s Offense

We credited Kenny Pickett in the last 2 seasons for minimizing turnovers and doing what was needed to win. In fact, entering Week 18, the Steelers ranked #1 in the NFL in preventing turnovers (only 7% of offensive drives), one of very few things the Steelers were superior at for much of the season. Despite fumbling the ball on Saturday, Mason Rudolph has 0 interceptions in the last 3 games. A statistic that was particularly impressive on Saturday night, given that Baltimore’s defense ranks in the top 5 in forcing turnovers in 2023 (14% of their opponents drives). Turnovers aside, the Steelers offense have been statistically better in nearly every category in the last 3 weeks, especially when compared to the pre-Rudolph days. Most importantly, they’re scoring more points, averaging 27 over the last 3 weeks, in contrast with only 15.9 in the the weeks prior. They’re scoring on 47% of drives, nearly 20% more than they did with Pickens and Trubisky. I’d be remiss not leave out the incredible rushing performances from Harris and Warren. The rushing unit alone has gained 470 yards in 3 games and has averaged nearly 157 yards/game in that stretch. The Steelers rushing unit didn’t surpass the 450 yard mark until Week 6.

From a play perspective, Mason Rudolph now owns 5 of the 8 longest receptions of the Steeler’s season, and 10 of the top 20. His 86 yard touchdown pass to George Pickens in Week 16 was the second longest reception in the NFL this year. If there’s anything that can be said about the Mason ‘Effect’, it’s his ability to look down field. In 3 games, Rudolph has nearly 430 yards after catch (YAC) on 53 completions. For comparison, in 3 games, Trubisky had 275 YAC on 67 completions, Pickett had 1041 on 201. Rudolph’s favorite targets have been Jaylen Warren (15), George Pickens (14), and Diontae Johnson (14). Despite Pickens having a quiet game against Baltimore, he wracked up a total of 326 receiving yards, 2 TDs, and averaged a ridiculous 33.75 yards/grab against Cincinnati and Seattle. Pickens had more yards in Week 16 and 17 than he in the previous 7 weeks combined. Mason Rudolph has been particular impressive in his completion streaks. In Week 17, Mason completed 11 passes in a row, 14 of 16 (88%) after the first quarter. In Week 18, Rudolph completed 14 of 14 passes (100%) after the first quarter.

Too much Credit?

I give Mason Rudolph a ton of credit. Probably more credit than he deserves. My goal was solely to highlight the veteran QB’s overall effect on a successful Pittsburgh offense, a level of success they hadn’t seen since Ben Roethlisberger. While Rudolph is deserving of credit, a great  majority should to Pittsburgh’s defensive, rushing, and offensive line units. After allowing 20 PPG in the first 15 Weeks, the defense has allowed only14.6 in the last 3 games. They did so with decimated LB and secondary rooms, leaning on off-the-couch guys like Myles Jack and Eric Rowe who have MIGHTILY stepped up down the stretch. Not enough can be said about the Steeler’s offensive line, led by standout rookie and first round pick Broderick Jones. Despite battling for the starting job in the first portion of 2023, Jones catapulted on the scene. In a recent interview with Bob Labriola, Mike Tomlin compared Broderick Jones to Maurkice Pouncey: “Although he is really young, he plays with a desired demeanor, and it is contagious… It’s very similar to the way that Maurkice Pouncey matured through his first year as a player in the things that we saw in him that eventually became captain-worthy and things of that nature.” All this to say that it’s been an incredible last couple weeks for the Black and Gold. While Rudolph is a critical, and necessary chess piece, he is only one of many.