The Pittsburgh Steelers are preparing for the 2024 regular season, but before the real games begin, the team has to head to training camp back at Saint Vincent College in order to fine tune their skills. As we here at SCN prepare you for the start of camp, we give you a series called “30 Scenarios in 30 Days” which gives you a Steelers scenario every day leading up to the start of camp.

It is simple how it works. We provide you the scenario, reasons why it will or won’t happen, and then our prediction for what we think will take place.

Let’s get to the scenario…

Scenario: The Steelers will not play a meaningless regular season game

Why it will happen: It is important to remember that since the scenario is a negative, saying that it will happen means that the Steelers will not play a meaningless game in 2024. It is also important to remember that there are two types of meaningless games that are played at the end of the regular season. First, and most common, is because a team has been eliminated from playoff contention. The other type of meaningless game to close out a season is when a team has made the postseason and can neither improve their standing or fall farther behind.

Since Mike Tomlin took over as the Steelers head coach in 2007, The Steelers have only played five meaningless games to close out the regular season. Of those five, four of which were where the Steelers were locked into the playoffs and rested players because there was no change, or reasonable expectation of a change, in their positioning. The only time the Steelers have played a regular season game under Mike Tomlin where they had been eliminated from postseason contention was in the 2012 season. After falling to the Cincinnati Bengals 13–10 in Week 16, the Steelers were sitting at 7–8 and mathematically out of the playoffs when they faced the Cleveland Browns for Week 17. The Steelers won the game 24–10 and finish the season at 8–8.

The four occasions where the Steelers were not playing a meaningful game the last week of the season due to already having their position locked in for the postseason was in 2008, 2016, 2017, and 2020.

Recent history shows us the Pittsburgh Steelers are almost always in contention. Also some fans complain about head coach Mike Tomlin never having a losing season and it doesn’t really matter, it does show that the team has stayed in the playoff picture all but one game in 17 years. So having the Steelers eliminated before Week 18 of 2024 would be a huge exception, and the fact they play the most difficult division in the NFL makes it less likely they will have everything wrapped up with a week to go in the regular season.

Why it won’t happen: Even though Mike Tomlin has only had one game where the Steelers were eliminated before the end of the regular season, that means nothing when looking at the 2024 roster. For the first time ever under Coach Tomlin, the Steelers are entering the season with both a new quarterback and a new offensive coordinator. With the Steelers schedule so backloaded, it is important for the offense to hit the ground running on all cylinders early in the season. Because there may be a learning curve, and the brutal stretch of games at the end of the year, the Steelers Christmas Day game could very well come down to them trying to keep themselves alive in the playoff race.

As for locking things up early and being able to rest players the final week of the season, that would be an extremely tall task in such a competitive AFC North.

Prediction: Being the numbers-driven person that I am, I’m going with the Steelers still needing their final game of the season to matter in one way or the other. Whether it’s fighting for a playoff spot, or jostling for position in the postseason, I think it will come down to the final week for the Steelers where it will be significant one way or the other.

Miss a scenario? Check out yesterday’s scenario below, and be sure to stay tuned to SCN for the latest news and notes surrounding the Steelers as they prepare for training camp.

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