With the 2023 NFL regular season now complete, cases can be made when it comes to the statistics and records for individual players to push towards significant awards. Whether it’s Most Valuable Player, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, or one of the rookie awards, sometimes winning these awards is more about the campaign effort than it is the on-the-field effort.

One particular award which has the eye of many Steelers fans is that for NFL Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY). Having a potential candidate for the award, and a player who won it just two seasons ago, T.J. Watt has made his case by his on-field play.

But that’s not the only factor that’s involved, is it?

Because it doesn’t just come down to who the best player is, I can think of three reasons why T.J. Watt is likely not going to win DPOY again this season, although he deservedly should. The following are the reasons I believe it will push someone else ahead of T.J. Watt and I’ll give the explanation as to why they should not be considered to the extent they may be.

Subjective “Stats”

In a quote most notably attributed to Mark Twain, “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” As a numbers person, I could find this quite highly offensive. But I don’t. Instead, I see the truth in it.

Many times numbers can be manipulated in order to drive home a certain point. If looking at football statistics, specific cut-offs or criteria could go into things in order to make something look better or worse depending on your agenda. While looking at the numbers and drawing a conclusion is ultimately the best way to do things, drawing the conclusion and then looking for numbers to support it it is often the case.

But what if there’s no getting around the numbers?

That’s when subjective stats come into things. Although I’m the one who reports on them each week, the grades by Pro Football Focus (PFF) are simply opinions. They are subjective. Additionally, a lot of their statistics fall in the same category. They are not objective stats in a number of cases, and they all come down to the opinion of the person recording it.

What are some of these examples? “Big time throws” for a quarterback. While there might be some numbers to help back it up, they really come down to the opinion of the person watching the quarterback throw the ball. Same with “turnover-worthy plays.” But the big one on defense is “pass rush win rate.” They have made up the statistic to see how often they pass rusher wins their rep even if they don’t create a sack, quarterback hit, or hurry (with only two of those three listed there being stats reported by the NFL because they have some level of subjectability but also have a defined process of checks and balances).

The big question is, who decides what’s a win and what isn’t?

It’s all merely an opinion that isn’t a recognizable statistic in order to allow those who come up short in statistical categories look like they are accomplishing something.

Why it’s wrong: The opinion of whether or not someone is defensive player of the year should be the only opinion when it comes to the number. Someone else’s opinion to create a statistic to manipulate your opinion it’s too opinionated.

Team Defense

The award is the NFL Defensive Player of the Year, not the best defensive player on the NFL’s best defense. But does that go a long way?

NFL players do not exist in a vacuum. There are (at least there are supposed to be) 11 players on the team on the field each play. Ten players could do fantastic things, but if the play goes at that one player who is not, it could be disastrous.

For this reason, giving an individual award shouldn’t be affected by the play of the team. But an individual’s performance is often affected by their teammates.

Let’s use T.J. Watt as example. Having other quality players on the defensive front can work both for and against T.J. Watt. There could be times T.J. Watt doesn’t get home for a sack he would have had otherwise because one of his quality teammates beat him to it. But, in having quality teammates, a team cannot simply send the house in Watt’s direction in order to take him out of the game. It is a delicate balance.

But what shouldn’t come into play is how well the overall defense ranks with one DPOY candidate versus another.

Because the Cleveland Browns are a highly ranked defense for 2023, that’s going to go a long way for Myles Garrett to win the award. But if T.J. Watt had the player surrounding him, particularly some high-quality players in the secondary, would he stand out even more?

It would be easy to look at two players who appear to be very close in consideration for DPOY and have them switch places. If one would likely be a better player while the other would be not as impactful, it could be the determining factor of which one had the stronger case. But even that is taking it a bit too far. That is why a player’s individual efforts is what should be ultimately judged.

Why it’s wrong: The best player on the top-ranked defense isn’t necessarily better than the best player on the 21st defense. If it’s an individual award, look at them individually.

Postseason Impact

Technically the individual awards headed out for the 2023 season are based on the regular season. Why? Because not all players qualify for the postseason.

A couple weeks ago I had written off the T.J. Watt would not pull through as the DPOY because he would not be putting an exclamation point on his season. At the time, it was because I believed the Steelers weren’t going to make the playoffs. Now, T.J. Watt will likely not play another snap in the extension of the 2023 season due to injury unless the Steelers can string together some wins.

If those who vote on the DPOY are torn between two candidates, knowing that player is participating in the postseason can sway the decision and confirm that they believe that players should get their vote. Although these votes are supposed to take place before the postseason begins, knowing if a player is going to be featured in the playoffs could come into play.

This is similar to the previous point because it can once again be dependent on the entire team to get into the postseason. But in the case of T.J. Watt, it’s due to an injury the final week of the season which will keep him out of the playoffs. Even though it shouldn’t, knowing Watt will likely not be able to make plays in the postseason could sway a voter’s thought process.

Why it’s wrong: Knowing a player will be participating in the postseason does not necessary impact their effect on the regular season.

So there are three factors in selecting the NFL defensive player of the year that I think are working against T.J. Watt this season. Should they be? Absolutely not. But when a panel of 50 sportswriters is merely giving their opinion on who they thought was the best on the field this season, they can be swayed for a variety of reasons. Will it be enough to on rightfully keep T.J. Watt from winning the award again? We’ll have to wait until February to find out.