In this week’s “3-&-Out” column, we examine the impact Pittsburgh’s injuries are having on their season and how the Christmas game against Kansas City will be a test of their resolve.

Gut-Check Time

One of my football coaches in high school had a not-so-endearing habit of walking through the locker room before kickoff and whacking players with a wiffle-ball bat. “Better get yourself right!” he’d yell. “It’s gut-check time!”

I don’t know what the wiffle-ball bat had to do with that. I think he just liked whacking people. But he did, in Cro-Magnon fashion, have a point. “Gut-check” time meant time to look into the mirror and decide what you were all about. There was no hiding at that point. You could either muster the courage to rise up and be your best or shrink from the moment. It separated the great from the mediocre and the winners from losers. “Gut-check” time was now or never.

The Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves at the “gut-check” point of their season. Granted, they’ve qualified for the playoffs, so they’re not in danger of missing out. But they run the risk of heading there on a losing streak, which never bodes well for one’s chances. They held a two-game lead in the AFC North just ten days ago, but after consecutive road losses in Philadelphia and Baltimore — both games in which they were physically dominated — that cushion has disappeared. They are now tied with the Ravens for the division lead, and have the 14-1 Chiefs coming to town as a potential lump of coal in their Christmas stocking. The Steelers are banged up, particularly in the secondary, which makes the task of defending Patrick Mahomes and Company all the more difficult. And, following an outing where his two crucial turnovers tilted the outcome in Baltimore’s favor, they need a bounce-back game from quarterback Russell Wilson, who faces the first significant adversity of his tenure in Pittsburgh.

Gut-check time, indeed.

How will the Steelers respond? We’ve seen them rally for big wins before, so I won’t be surprised if they scratch and claw their way to victory against a Chiefs team that has been nowhere near as impressive as its record. Then again, 14-1 is 14-1. Kansas City keeps finding a way to get it done. They are taking a page out of Mike Tomlin’s book and disregarding style points in favor of actual points — just enough of them to keep winning.

Win or lose on Wednesday, the bigger issue for the Steelers as they head towards the post-season is whether they can overcome the injuries and mistakes that have plagued them the past two weeks. The offense averaged just 15 points per game in their losses to Philly and Baltimore. They were bad on 1st downs, often putting themselves behind the chains, and suffered crucial turnovers in plus territory that squandered scoring opportunities.

On defense, their tackling was atrocious. They missed a season-high 17 tackles against the Eagles and almost that many in Baltimore. Their reserve players filling in for injured starters got exposed. The Ravens, in particular, picked on cornerback Cory Trice once he entered the game for an injured Joey Porter Jr. Trice was victimized against both the run and pass, most notably on this touchdown to Rashod Bateman where he jumped a flat route too quickly, leaving safety Damontae Kazee helpless against Bateman’s route to the back pylon:

Watch at the end of this clip how Kazee turns and looks at Trice. It’s cover-2 and Trice jumps the flat route. He has to sink under the route from Bateman and rally down late to the flat. That’s Trice’s inexperience. Injuries in the secondary having an impact on the Steelers. pic.twitter.com/6iI9DyBD1F

— Kevin Smith (@KTSmithFFSN) December 21, 2024

“The standard is the standard” is one of Mike Tomlin’s best talking points, but when it’s come to the product on the field the past two weeks, it’s failed to hold up. The Steelers may get some of their missing pieces back on Wednesday for Kansas City. If not, they’ll need a better effort from their reserves to knock off the Chiefs.

Russ Fails to Cook

The other element that doomed the Steelers in Baltimore was Wilson’s turnovers. The first was a fumble inside the Ravens’ 5-yard-line with the Steelers driving for a go-ahead touchdown in a 7-7 game. Wilson dropped to pass, found no one open and exited the pocket to his right. He had acres of green grass in front of him and cruised untouched inside the 10-yard line. Once there, most expected him to slide down safely, giving Pittsburgh a 1st-and-goal. But Wilson, smelling the end zone, decided to cut back as safety Ar’Darious Washington approached him. Washington put his helmet on the football during the tackle, Wilson coughed it up and Baltimore recovered:

You have to love the toughness here. But damn, Russ has to be smarter… pic.twitter.com/QdQsuawEGI

— Kevin Smith (@KTSmithFFSN) December 21, 2024

Rather than take a 14-7 lead, the Steelers then yielded an eight-play, 96-yard drive that resulted in a Ravens touchdown. That swung the game’s momentum, and Pittsburgh never really recovered.

Wilson’s second turnover put the nail in Pittsburgh’s coffin. Trailing 24-17 early in the fourth quarter, Wilson booted to his right off of a play-fake to Najee Harris. Wilson initially looked downfield, but with all routes covered dumped the ball in the flat to tight end MyCole Pruitt. He missed badly to the inside, however, which allowed Marlon Humphrey to swoop in for a crushing pick-six:

Marlon Humphrey (1)
Baltimore Ravens
38 yards, Pick Six pic.twitter.com/NGHjRpI1d2

— NFL Touchdown Videos (@NFLTDsVideos) December 22, 2024

Wilson bears responsibility for both turnovers. To his credit, he accepted it. “I can’t let that happen,” he told reporters after the game, referring to the interception. He’s right. And, while you have to admire his toughness for trying to score on the play where he fumbled, he has to be smarter there as well. Wilson has been far from reckless this season, but his lapses on Saturday were costly. Whether he can put it behind him and get back to playing the sound football that defined his first eight games as Pittsburgh’s starter will be critical moving forward.

Arthur Smith can help him by being less predictable with his formations. Wilson’s interception came on a 2nd-down play from under center where no defender was fooled by the play fake. When Wilson gets under center, the Steelers run the football about 85% of the time. The rest of the time, they send Wilson on a bootleg. The fact no one was open down the field, and that the defensive end was in Wilson’s face when he threw the interception, are factors of that predictability. Smith needs to mix up his calls better with Wilson under center to keep defenses off-balance.

Austin Steps Up

One of the positives of the Baltimore game — and throughout the last few weeks, really — has been the improved play of receiver Calvin Austin III. Austin caught four passes for 65 yards against the Ravens, and has been more productive as the season has progressed. He had just 17 catches for 256 yards and two touchdowns through the first ten games, where he struggled to create space for himself down the field. Over the last five games, he’s basically doubled those numbers. Austin has 15 catches for 261 yards and two touchdowns over that time, emerging as a downfield threat while sharpening his route-running. This catch against the Ravens, where he beat press coverage with a beautiful stick-jab release and then separated on an in-cut at the top of his stem, was reminiscent of some of the better routes Diontae Johnson ran early in his career as a Steeler:

Wow. How about this release from Calvin Austin. Try covering that… pic.twitter.com/ULEaLX5gSl

— Kevin Smith (@KTSmithFFSN) December 21, 2024

Hopefully, when George Pickens returns to the lineup, Austin will remain productive rather than again becoming an afterthought. His explosiveness is badly-needed in an offense that lacks quick-twitch players who can create chunk plays in space. The Steelers need to open up the box so their rushing attack, which has averaged just 97 yards per game the past three weeks, can be more effective. Finding ways to get Austin the football could help with that.

And Out…

Kansas City has won the last three meetings against the Steelers dating back to 2018 and has averaged 40 points per game in doing so. The 2024 Chiefs are not an offensive juggernaut, however. They are 11th in the league in scoring offense, averaging a good (but not great) 23.7 points per game. For perspective, the Steelers rank 12th in scoring offense, just behind them at 23.5. The key to their success lies with their defense, which yields just 18.5 points per game, third-best in the league. Pittsburgh is seventh in scoring defense at 19.9. So, figure on a fairly low-scoring game, and a game likely decided by a touchdown or less. Kansas City is a remarkable 11-0 in such affairs, while Pittsburgh is 6-3.

Have a great holiday, Steelers fans!

Follow me on Twitter @KTSmithFFSN.