Fantasy Football draft season is quickly approaching with NFL squads set to report for Training Camps in just a couple weeks. If you’re like me, you’re already deep into mock drafts and scouring the latest from the online fantasy cognoscenti for any inside scoops on value players and league-winning strategies.

While I’m not officially a part of that elite club of fantasy “experts”, I am a veteran player with 15 years of experience in basically every available format. As a participant in 4 dynasty leagues and 9 redraft leagues this year, my focus and commitment will be tested, but I feel good about my Big Board and my draft strategy. It’s going to be fun!

These rankings are based on the order I would draft each player based on position, not necessarily where I believe they’ll finish up at season’s end. All rankings are based on a 12-team, full PPR format. So let’s get down to it, starting with the Quarterbacks.

Top 20 Fantasy QBs of 2023

Tier 1:

1. Patrick Mahomes, KC
2. Josh Allen, BUF
3. Jalen Hurts, PHI

The Tier 1 group is highlighted by last year’s top 3 finishing QBs, and for good reason. Mahomes continues to pace the field in terms of per game statistical output, and improved rushing output from 2022 just raises the floor moving forward for the most consistent QB in Fantasy. Josh Allen and the Bills may have fallen short of their Super Bowl aspirations in 2022, but the All-World passer was still fantasy’s QB2. Ink him in that range again as Allen boasts top-level rushing stats for a QB to go along with his Mahomes-ian passing output. Hurts might be the league’s best dual-threat QB, and his cast of weapons is still elite. Lock these guys into a class of their own.

Tier 2:

4. Joe Burrow, CIN
5. Trevor Lawrence, JAX
6. Lamar Jackson, BAL
7. Justin Herbert, LAC
8. Justin Fields, CHI

You could argue Burrow belongs in Tier 1, but he tends to be a little more boom or bust than the players above him. Still the supporting cast is top notch and he is the Bengals’ offense. Lawrence gets a boost in my rankings as a do-it-all QB on the rise with an upgraded skill group. Jackson falls outside my top 5 because of the injury concerns, but when healthy is still one of the most dynamic fantasy QBs of all time. The two Justins get things done very differently, with Fields proving to be an elite runner, and Herbert excelling as a high-volume passer. Both have Tier 1 potential if they can put it all together in 2023.

Tier 3:

9. Dak Prescott, DAL
10. Kirk Cousins, MIN
11. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
12. Geno Smith, SEA

This group is as intriguing as it gets, with Prescott coming off a down year where the talented passer was inhibited by nagging injuries. With a full, healthy season, Prescott is an easy pick to bounce back into the top 10. Cousins is perennially underrated, but finished 2022 as QB7. The supporting cast has only gotten better, and the Vikings will likely be in a ton of shootouts in 2023. Lock him in as a top 10 QB. Tua’s injury concerns drop him in my rankings a little, but that offense is loaded and if he stays healthy, astronomical numbers could be in store. Geno Smith had an incredible breakout year in 2022, and the weapons look good. Obviously, I don’t see another Top 5 performance from Smith happening in 2023, but he’s still a solid option if you wait on QB.

Tier 4:

13. Deshaun Watson, CLE
14. Daniel Jones, NYG
15. Aaron Rodgers, NYJ

Deshaun Watson is the biggest unknown in football, and that goes for fantasy as well. The talent and potential are there, but this is Cleveland we’re talking about. If you draft Watson, spend a little more on a solid backup option. Daniel Jones is on this list for his rushing floor alone. The definition of a better fantasy player than a real-life one, Jone’s supporting cast leaves a lot to be desired, and he has never been an efficient passer. He’s a high-end QB2. Aaron Rodgers adds nothing as a rusher, but the savvy vet may yet have a stellar passing season in him, and considering the talent around him, could turn back the clock a few years in 2023.

Tier 5:

16. Anthony Richardson, IND
17. Derek Carr, NO
18. Matthew Stafford, LAR
19. Jared Goff, DET
20. Kenny Pickett, PIT

Richardson tops the Tier 5 group as a potential league-winning QB down the stretch in 2023. He may need time to get rolling, but that kind of physical talent can’t hide all season. He’s my 2022 Justin Fields candidate for this season. Derek Carr is underrated across the NFL and in fantasy circles. Carr joins an offense with exciting playmakers and he’s out to prove the doubters wrong. He could have a surprise season in store. Matthew Stafford is coming off a lost season due to injury, but he returns to a passing attack that made him a Top 5 fantasy QB just a year earlier in 2021. It’s risky, but he’s a potential steal late in drafts. Goff put together a wildly surprising Top 10 performance in 2022, and I understand some might feel I have him too low, but trusting Goff to put together back-to-back stellar fantasy seasons in a row is a tough ask. I’ll shoot low and hope he surprises again. Kenny Pickett sneaks into my top 20 based on the fact that, if he really breaks out in 2023, that offense is absolutely loaded at the skill positions. Word out of Pittsburgh is extremely promising. Right now, he’s a low-end QB2, but he has major upside and already boasts a solid rushing floor.

Extras

“Dark Horse” TOP 10 Candidates: Anthony Richardson, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford

BOLD Prediction: Anthony Richardson will be a Top 5 Fantasy QB in Weeks 9-18

Don’t forget to check out The Steelers Fix Podcast with myself and Andrew Wilbar below, where we Draft our top 10 fantasy QBs for 2023 and talk Steelers QB Kenny Pickett’s fantasy ceiling in 2023.