Blake Shepardson – San Francisco

If there was ever a project of a draft pick with sky-high upside, it’s University of San Francisco’s Blake Shepardson. Shepardson pitched his first two collegiate seasons at Regis University, a Division-II school in Colorado. There, Shepardson struggled through those first two campaigns with an 8.89 ERA over 85 IP, allowing 96 hits, 12 homers and 68 walks while striking out 79 hitters.After transferring to USF, his control issues held constant. He finished 2024 with 30 innings pitched, allowing 29 walks and 13 HBP with 34 strikeouts.

What raises eyebrows (in a good way) is Shepardson’s stuff. For starters, his Sinker sits at 95-99 mph with plus arm-side run. It generated groundballs at a 61% rate which was top-ten in D1 baseball. His Fastball profile sets up his hellacious Sweeper really well. The amount of glove-side break the pitch generates at 85-87 mph is rare, and the pitching models reflect that (145 Stuff+ and a 176 xRV+). It’s the pitch that, despite his struggles, made the Sox’s amateur scouting analysts (and presumably Brian Bannister) giddy about turning the card in with his name on it. For reference, Hagen Smith’s Slider registered a 140 Stuff+ in 2024. Shepardson has a real weapon here.

Through his Spring collegiate season in 2024, Shepardson only threw his Fastball for a strike at a 57% clip in 2024 despite a 70% usage rate. While playing the first half of the summer with the West Virginia Black Bears of the MLB Draft League where he pitched a lot better in a small sample (5.1 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 11 K), he slightly lowered his Fastball usage for more Sliders, but threw 68% strikes with his heater. He was around the plate much more, and that allowed his stuff to play better as he got ahead in the count more often, allowing for more chases as PAs progressed. Whether or not Shepardson made any distinct adjustments over the summer or not, this improved performance was likely the latest look the the White Sox got eyes on him.

Looking ahead to his future as a pro pitcher, Shepardson will need to find a way to get left-handers out after they hit .310/.545/.448 in 2024 (compared to RHHs at .192/.394/.295), but this isn’t abnormal for Sinker/Slider pitchers. Without showing good feel for a Changeup, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Sox have him start experimenting with a Cutter as a more consistent third offering.

Even outside of any arsenal additions and general new cues to try and sustain more control, significantly closing the gap between 70% Sinkers and 23% Sweepers is likely. If things click for Shepardson, he’s got the opportunity to be a dominant late-inning weapon in the White Sox bullpen.

Nathan Archer – Bowling Green

Nathan Archer is a left-handed-hitting outfielder that’s coming off a Junior season where he slashed .300/.362/599 with 18 homers and a 121 wRC+. This follows up a really strong Freshman season (.962 OPS, 128 wRC+) and a middling Sophomore campaign (.854 OPS, 102 wRC+). He saw both his strikeout and ground ball rates jump in 2023, and those are a couple main culprits of his struggles a couple seasons ago. However, in 2024, he was able to bring his strikeout rate back in the range of his 2022 season (22%), while cutting his ground ball rate from 44% to 36%. His ISO also jumped from .215 in 2023 to .300 in 2024 as he more than doubled his career home run total.

Looking at his three-year career as a whole, Archer finished his Bowling Green tenure hitting .299/.370/559 with 35 homers, 137 RBI and a 116 wRC+ over 154 games.

He has a very aggressive approach at the plate that led to both high chase and whiff rates in college, mostly on breaking and offspeed pitches. Despite some of those contact concerns on the slow stuff, Archer had an 89% Zone-Contact% on Fastballs in 2024 (70th percentile). Another strength of Archer’s was hit batted ball profile, particularly only hitting 36% of his batted balls on the ground and hitting 55% of his pulled batted balls in the air.

At just under 67 mph, Archer’s estimated Bat Speed is just above the D1 average, and this mirrors how his exit velocities stack up to create a solid, but not exceptional quality of contact profile. The swing decisions are 5% below average, but that’s not as low as his chase rate might suggest, meaning his in-zone decisions (in terms of picking out the pitches to attack) have been better than average.