Chase Dollander is a beast.

During his college career at the University of Tennessee, Dollander was considered one the best arms in baseball and had been projected by some to go first overall in the MLB Draft. However, his stock declined in 2023 after a rough season that saw him lose a feel for his slider and get away from the things that had made him successful in 2022. However, he was still considered one the best but fate would have it that he would fall to the Colorado Rockies with the ninth overall pick in 2023.

The Rockies were confident that they would be able to help Dollander refine his mechanics and confidence to get him back to where he was before 2023. They opted to let him rest, mainly working out in Arizona and throwing a little bit in the instructional league at the end of September. The intent was to let him hit the ground running in 2024 and see how he does.

So far, he’s been everything you could hope for.

Starting the first half of the season in High-A with the Spokane Indians, Dollander quickly asserted himself as the premier starter in the Northwest League. He played a key role in Spokane snagging a playoff berth, was named to the Futures Game to represent the Rockies before earning a promotion to Double-A where he will make his debut on Wednesday for the Hartford Yard Goats.

Just how dominant was Dollander? In 14 starts he led the NWL in strikeouts (111), had a 2.83 ERA, had just 28 walks issued, and did all of it in just 70 innings of work. He averaged 14.27 K/9 while opponents hit just .228 against him. Of the 60 hits he gave up, only 14 were for extra bases, meaning when teams did get a hit it was only a single most of the time.

What has made him so effective is his ability to harness a blazing fastball that regularly clocks in the upper 90s and hits triple-digits, while mixing in a slider that he was able to get back. That two-pitch combo has dominated most hitters but he gets better because of his ability to mix in a big mid-70s curve and an upper-80s changeup with some fade. The arsenal has looked excellent and led to the success where it seemed like the Northwest League was too easy for him on the mound. He struck out at least five batters in all 14 starts, including four starts with at least 10.

A power starter that can get strikeouts and limit walks is obviously an intriguing arm that Rockies fans will clamor to see at the big-league level. Perhaps the next development that needs to happen for Dollander is managing efficiency where he can work deeper into games. He made just three starts in High-A where he pitched six or more complete innings. It’s a natural result of the amount of strikeouts that he collects each game. As he develops, it’s okay to have high strikeout numbers if you’re not working deep into counts and limiting the pitches thrown per batter and working quick innings.

Dollander has down well on the pitches thrown per plate appearance. With 4.243 P/PA, he’s shown an ability to attack hitters and get quick outs, usually via the punchout. However, he has averaged 18.19 P/IP which shows that he sometimes can get a bit wild and fall behind. Averaging 3.5 BB/9 is something he’ll have to continue to work on as he begins to pitch in Hartford.

With his rapid development this season, how soon could Dollander find himself pitching in Colorado? The best-case scenario is that Dollander is able to dominate in Double-A and potentially finish the 2024 season in Triple-A with the Albuquerque Isotopes. There is the chance that the Rockies opt to skip Triple-A entirely and give Dollander a look in September but they look to be a little more careful in his development with the arm.

By letting him finish out the year in the minors the Rockies can then give him a strong look in spring training and give him the opportunity to make the rotation out of camp or at the very least debut early in 2025. The Rockies are a team in transition and have a few other players to sort through for the rotation in order to open a spot or Dollander. The Rockies are currently locked into three rotation spots beyond 2024, leaving two slots open depending on how the Trade Deadline goes. There are also young options like Carson Palmquist, Tanner Gordon, Noah Davis, Anthony Molina and Ryan Feltner to compete for those final two spots.

Starting depth is better than it has been in the past for the Rockies farm system and they will likely want to use Dollander when the time is right, but as their number one prospect he is quickly knocking on the door to the big leagues. He is the next ace the team is looking for and looking at what Paul Skenes has done for the Pittsburgh Pirates in his first season, the Rockies could find some inspiration to get their best pitching prospect to the league as soon as he’s ready, current roster decisions be damned.