The Colorado Rockies have an ever-present need for pitching. 2023 saw them use a franchise-record number of starting pitchers after injuries decimated the rotation and underperformance left them in turmoil. Unfortunately for the Rockies, the methods to improve their rotation aren’t as simple as they would be for other teams. Due to the nature of pitching at high elevation and the stigma that comes with that, top-of-the-line starters aren’t likely to sign with the team, unless the Rockies vastly overpay. Developing starting pitching seems like the natural fit but even that has had difficulties and isn’t a guaranteed success. That then leaves the Rockies to attempt trades and scrape the bottom of the barrel for minor league signings or search for veterans at the tail end of their careers, just looking to keep their careers alive. This brings us to the topic of this article, could the Rockies form a union with veteran left-hander James Paxton?The

This idea for Paxton signing with the Rockies stems from a Zachary Rymer article for Bleacher Report. While it’s still not likely the Rockies make a move for a notable name like Paxton, who is also being courted by the Boston Red Sox, he is still worth a look and shining a light on the hypothetical move.

Since his debut with the Seattle Mariners in 2013, Paxton developed a reputation as a reliable starter when healthy. He enjoyed a solid seven years in Seattle before he was traded to the New York Yankees following the 2018 season. At the time, Paxton was coming off a season in which he posted a 3.76 ERA and won 11 games while tossing a career-high 160 innings. He had tossed two complete games that season, including a no-hitter on just 99 pitches, making him a valuable target for any team. He was in the midst of a prime stretch and he would continue that success in 2019 with the Yankees. In 29 starts, he posted a solid 3.82 ERA in 150 2/3 innings of work, helping the Yankees reach the postseason once again. His best work in the playoffs came in the ALCS where he allowed just two runs over 8 1/3 innings across two starts with 12 strikeouts against six walks.

Unfortunately, arm troubles would plague him in the next stage of his career. He struggled in five starts in the truncated 2020 season before his season was ended due to a left flexor strain. Following the season he returned to the Mariners as a free agent but threw just 1 1/3 innings before a left forearm strain sidelined him for the entire season. He then signed as a free agent with the Red Sox, but missed the entire 2022 season after getting Tommy John surgery. May 10, 2023, marked his first time throwing a big league pitch since the start of 2021 and Paxton turned in a decent year at the age of 34. In 19 starts he posted a 4.50 ERA over 96 innings, striking out 101 batters against 33 walks. Paxton now finds himself as a free agent once again with a better prospect for what he can provide to a team.

The most attractive aspect of Paxton that the Rockies should look at is his fastball profile. Paxton lives up to his nickname of The Big Maple measuring 6 feet 4 inches and with those proportions he can wrack up strikeouts at a considerable rate. In 2018, his best season, Paxton punched out over 200 batters, and in his career has a 26.3% strikeout rate which sits about five ticks above the league average. His success is rooted in his ability to command the fastball, enabling him to set up his other pitchers. Due to an extension that ranked in the 79th percentile in 2023, Paxton’s fastball could be considered a heavy fastball. He averages about 95 mph on his primary pitch but invokes less spin on the ball. As a result, the pitch does feature less movement overall, but it is straighter and with his extension shortens the distance to the plate. The result is a pitch that gets on a hitter quicker and induces plenty of groundballs along with the strikeouts.

Paxton had a 42.5% ground ball rate. That kind of result will play for the Rockies, as they are a team that does tend to rely on pitchers inducing tweaking contact and ground balls, utilizing strong defense to get outs. That is a useful skill, but Paxton’s ability to rear back and get a strikeout when needed is a valuable trait missing from the Rockies’ current rotation. Paxton is typically good for about four or five strikeouts per start but has also regularly tallied seven to nine punchouts in a start. His fastball helps set up other pitchers like his curveball, cutter, and changeup, as well as the occasional sinker. His changeup was particularly effective in 2023, featuring a 43% whiff rate on the pitch. His mix is simple, but he can utilize and deploy them in a successful matter that could play well at Coors Field.

A hard-tossing starter who can get ground balls is something the Rockies will be missing entering the 2023 season. German Marquez will miss most of the season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and the three staples of the rotation entering the season are more along the lines of finesse pitchers than power pitchers. There will be concern with his age as he enters his age 35 season, but more if he can stay healthy enough to eat up innings throughout the season.

As mentioned before, 160 innings are his career-high in a season. He has surpassed the 150 mark just twice in his career and should the Rockies, or anyone for that matter, sign him they will need him to eat more innings than he has in the past. One can’t expect him to toss 200 innings, but 130 seems like the benchmark to aim for. There is a promise that he can do that after he had just six starts last season in which he pitched less than five complete innings.  However, the nature of Rockies games could put that in question if he is unable to perform. Still, Paxton could become the left-handed version of Chase Anderson for the Rockies, another veteran who saw some success in a Rockies uniform last season.

There is also a matter of money when it comes to signing Paxton. The starting salary for most starting pitchers these days is about $10 million. That price itself is likely too steep for the Rockies to gamble money on, hence the desire to stick with minor-league deals and cheaper trades. There is also the matter of the Rockies still not having their broadcasting situation settled for 2024, which likely puts a lot of operating money in question for the payroll.

Overall, Paxton would be a solid addition for the Rockies and would likely not happen just because of how the team operates. The Red Sox have been interested in him since the season ended, making a reunion more likely once some of the bigger names come off the board in free agency. If the Rockies are going to improve on a 103-loss season, they will need to find a way to improve their pitching through mid-tier options. Otherwise, they will be stuck in a perpetual cycle of mediocrity.