Power 4 & Big East Driving the Top Seed Lines

After some surprising home and road upsets in January, the NCAAB Men’s teams are starting to separate the contenders from the pretenders, as the calendar turns to February.

Teams like Tennessee, Kansas, Purdue, Kentucky, UConn and Illinois have slipped a bit- so much that I would have to say that unless they make a run and into their conference tournaments, I do not see this lot as a legitimate threat to a Final Four and beyond. It would take a perfect storm of luck, regional seeding draw and possible upsets surrounding their portion in order to setup for a more favorable run. Of course, this is exactly why we love this single elimination style tournament and its uniqueness to the landscape of college and professional athletics.

The Top Dogs (1-8 Seed Line Projections)

As of today (1/30), we are looking at a separation of the top 8 overall seeds slowly coming into focus. Then we’ll look at some possible sleepers lurking amongst the remaining ranked teams. Stay tuned for a follow up after Selection Sunday reveals the full field, as we’ll take a look at some TRUE Cinderellas.

Auburn is the favorite for the #1 overall seed as they have defeated Alabama already and carry a single loss and boast some of the best metrics across the systems used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. Iowa State of the Big 12 had been sitting tall until a recent, OT road loss at Arizona putting them in the 3-loss category along with Alabama, Houston, Tennessee, Marquette and St. Johns. With 2 conference road loses, I expect them to drop to a 3-line as other teams around them will be seeing tougher quality of games in February. Two of of the top 7 ranked teams own a pair of the longest and active winning streaks in Duke (14) and MSU (13) of which neither has lost since November 2024. For Coach Tom Izzo, this is the first time that has happened in his 30th season where his team went two calendar months without a loss. Duke’s only loses were on neutral courts against Kansas (3 pt loss) and Kentucky (5 pt loss). MSU lost in the Champion’s Classic to Kanas (8 pts) and in Maui to Memphis (8 pts), also on neutral courts.

Any team that finishes with 4 loses or less possesses the best odds at securing a coveted #1 seed. Someone between Houston and Iowa St are not shoe-ins and would need to rattle off a hot run through their conference tournament championship to combat for the final 1 seed. Additionally, HOU lost to SDSU which could weigh more against them. That winner could join Auburn/Florida winner (SEC) and Duke (ACC). However, as long as Michigan State continues to keep winning, their SOR in conjunction of what will end up being a solid collection of Quad 1/2 games over the next 5 weeks may end up favoring them over the Big 12 winner, in the eyes of the committee and two loses to assured locks, whether its auto bid or at large.

Under The Radar

Teams like St. Johns and Louisville are exploding up the rankings in the last few weeks and aren’t being given enough credit given their current conference leader. The Red Storm are on a 7-game streak and the Cardinals are on a 10-game roll. Staying in the ACC, Clemson has been a very intriguing team too. George Mason and VCU have had great seasons and are shaping up to be threats on their own with the right matchups. Texas and Michigan would also satisfy as dark horses, but Michigan has struggled as of late and needs to rebound during a tough February while Texas has suffered losses to superior SEC ranked teams but has fared well outside of those.