As the 2-10 Arizona Cardinals took a 17-3 lead as torrential downpour opened from Acrisure Stadium, I truly didn’t think things could get much worse. After all, the Steelers — at 7-4 with full control of their playoff destiny — were on track to lose to a franchise that hadn’t won a road game in well over a year.

And then Thursday hit.

In a performance that could be classified as rare because of how bad it was for the second straight week, Pittsburgh was lulled to sleep by the 2-10 New England Patriots, who jumped out to a 21-3 advantage in the first half after not scoring 20+ points since late October. In the blink of an eye, the Steelers swung from 9-4 to 7-6, cutting their playoff odds to 25%, per The New York Times.

One could attribute Pittsburgh’s embarrassing losses to terrible play from backup Mitch Trubisky, or a very-well-paid defense not making nearly enough impact plays. At the end of the day, though, both outcomes reveal something that’s emerged from the shadows: Mike Tomlin is largely to blame.

First, let me contextualize this discourse. The Steelers haven’t won fewer than six games in a season since 1988, and there is a myriad of franchises that would kill to have that sustained period of at least decency. Sure, Pittsburgh may have stretches of doldrums, but it’s never reached No. 1 pick or total fire-sale status, and that’s important — plus a testament to Tomlin.

Tomlin’s uncanny ability to yank victory from the clench of defeat is one of the key elements that makes him such a venerated head coach. But what can’t be separated from that principle is that his teams have lost regularly when they should have won — over and over again.

Beyond this latest two-game stretch, look at the team’s games against the Patriots and Jets last year. Or a shocking loss to the Raiders in 2022. Or the 2020 Wild Card Game (if you dare to remember that). It’s time to acknowledge that this double-edged sword is becoming part of Tomlin’s legacy, as difficult as it may be to accept.

When you strive to achieve a one-score game — where Pittsburgh has tended to thrive, going 29-11-1 in such matchups over the last four seasons — that duality might be expected. But when you boil it down to a conceptual perspective, it’s not difficult to understand why the Steelers play such a maddening style of football.

On offense, Tomlin has taken an extremely hands-off approach. The results? Pittsburgh’s scoring offense has ranked 21st or worse in four of the last five years. Sure, Randy Fichtner and Matt Canada are far from blameless, but it was Tomlin’s decision to hire them in the first place, not to mention allow them to remain employed despite ludicrously long stretches of stale play.

Even Pittsburgh’s defense, where Tomlin presumably has more sway, really doesn’t look radically modern. Only this season have the Steelers truly begun to experiment with using elements such as simulated pressures or stunts, but even then, there have been countless games where Tomlin’s defense has seemingly underperformed in some capacity.

Tomlin’s formula of having a pass-rush oriented defense with a sufficient enough, turnover-free offense isn’t an unorthodox one, nor one that hasn’t been successful in past years. The problem, though, is that he doesn’t try to push the envelope on either side of the ball from a schematic standpoint — and in 2023, that’s almost asking to lose. The Steelers’ coordinators have been bad, but Tomlin is still ultimately at fault for overseeing those operations.

At a more basic level is team organization, which has even started to falter under Tomlin. Week in and week out, it looks like Pittsburgh hasn’t practiced, whether routinely missing easy tackles (the Steelers are tied for the 11th-most missed tackles, per PFF) or inducing idiotic penalties like illegal formation or 12 men in the huddle. Of course, Tomlin is known for his ridiculously poor challenges, of which he’s won just 38 of 91 in his 17-year career. More recently, that figure is 2-for-7 since 2021.

Moreover, that concept of consistency has not materialized whatsoever when push has come to shove. Under Tomlin, the Steelers have made the playoffs in 10 of his 17 seasons, posting an 8-9 record. In six of those 10 of those postseason berths, Pittsburgh never won a game. Additionally, only three have yielded a trip to the AFC Title Game.

A considerable portion of those postseason struggles have been attributed to a horrific secondary (see: 2016-18). Ultimately, though, Tomlin has not extrapolated his uncanny ability to eke out wins in the postseason, particularly recently: Pittsburgh hasn’t emerged victorious in the postseason in six years. That type of drought feels staggeringly long relative to the team’s talent and resources.

One thing that Tomlin undoubtedly can hang his hat on is having his squads enter the playoff mix, often inexplicably. Last year is a perfect example of that, with the Steelers winning six of their final seven games to finish 9-8. 2019 is another instance, with Pittsburgh scratching out eight wins with a combination of Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges.

Despite how earth-shattering the last two results have felt, the Steelers still have a very realistic shot to make the playoffs, although there’s little margin for error. Pittsburgh’s odds jump to 46% with a win in Lucas Oil Stadium, but drop to a slim 8% with a loss to the Colts. Two defeats at any point in the next four games renders things very difficult, and that might be easier said than done considering that the Colts, Seahawks, Bengals and Ravens all have at least six wins.

It would be anything but surprising if the Steelers find their way into the postseason for the second time in three years. But what matters much more than that is the results once there, which underscore a head coach who has done little to actively elevate the talent around him — and whose shortcomings are becoming more and more difficult to obfuscate as time passes.