Recently the betting markets in Las Vegas Nevada estimated the 2024 Cleveland Browns win total of 8.5 games. That is a .500 record in a 17-game season. This was the team that went 11-6 in 2023 with 26% of their salary cap on injured reserve and starting 5 different quarterbacks. They finished in second place of the toughest division in football. The odds makers are underestimating the 2024 Cleveland Browns. The question is why?

As I wrote earlier, the Cleveland Browns play in the toughest division in football. Any of the four teams could win the division or finish in fourth place with a winning record. That can be seen by a betting market as a difficult starting point. Also, Deshaun Watson has yet to play a full season for the Browns or perform at the level of the 2020 season with Houston. We saw glimpses of Watsons old self in 2023. But not consistently for the Browns in the last two seasons. Which is reasonable to think that the Browns trading for Watson was a mistake. But Watson is one player on a great roster.

The 2023 Cleveland Browns had the top ranked defense in the NFL. They are bringing back all but three players from the 2023 starting defense. The defensive coaching staff is returning as well. The Browns led the league in interceptions thrown and still won 11 games in 2023. If a healthy Deshaun Watson plays like he did in the second half of last years Baltimore game. The ceiling will be unlimited for the 2024 Cleveland Browns.

This week the Browns began off season workouts and General Manager Andrew Berry said that “Watson is expected to start week 1 of the season”. The performance of Watson is what hinges on much of the success of the 2024 Cleveland Browns. Las Vegas may be betting against him and the Browns. But the city of Cleveland won’t bet against him or the Browns.