How Did We Get Here, Part 2: Playoff Hopefuls
For those of you who have followed fansfirstsports.com for the majority of the season, you know I’ve been keeping a weekly look at the Power Rankings throughout the year. As the Postseason approaches for some, and an early offseason draws near for others, I wanted to take a deeper dive into each squad.
In this 4-part series entitled “How Did We Get Here?” I’ll break down all 32 teams into four 8-team tiers, starting with my list of “Super Bowl Contenders”, then “Playoff Contenders” before diving into the more offseason-centric groups titled “A Year Away” and “Reset and Rebuild”.
In Part One, I ranked the 8 teams I believe have a legitimate case to make for getting to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans. For Part 2 today, we’ll dive into the big season storyline for each squad on the fringe of the playoffs with just 3 weeks to play and I’ll give each team a label that best describes them if they were to make the postseason.
Let’s dive in!
1. Houston Texans
Playoff Chance: 100% (Clinched AFC South)
Driving Force: Shutdown Pass Defense
Label: Best Team in a Bad Division
The Texans’ defense is absolutely the driving force for a team that many thought going into the season could have one of the best offenses in football. It has not worked out that way, mostly due to the struggles of the OL and a bit of a sophomore slump from QB CJ Stroud. This pass rush, though, led by offseason acquisition Danielle Hunter and 2nd year stud Will Anderson, and the secondary has really grown up in 2024, with S Jalen Pitre and star CB Derek Stingley shutting down passing games regularly. If Houston wants to make a run, it’ll be this defense that leads the way.
2. Los Angeles Rams
Playoff Chance: 54%
Driving Force: Explosive Passing Offense
Label: Could Go on a Run
Matthew Stafford is still one of the league’s best QBs, and he proves it on a weekly basis with hole shot throws and incredible feel and timing from the pocket. His top 2 weapons on the outside, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, are 2 of the best separators in football and are incredible after the catch. When Sean McVay’s offense is humming, this passing attack is elite. It’s the reason they’re so dangerous if they can hang on in the NFC West and make the playoffs.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Playoff Chance: 83%
Driving Force: Offensive Versatility
Label: Could Go on a Run
The Buccaneers can beat you in multiple ways on offense, starting with Baker Mayfield, who is absolutely dealing right now with Mike Evans finally healthy and support pieces like TE Cade Otton and Rookie WR Jalen McMillan rounding out an explosive passing attack. On the ground, the duo of Raschad White and Bucky Irving can pound away up front and get involved in the passing game. The defense has been okay of late, but if the Bucs go anywhere in January, it’ll be because of OC Liam Coen’s crew on offense.
4. Los Angles Chargers
Playoff Chance: 86%
Driving Force: Great Coaching
Label: Team You Don’t Want to Face
The Chargers’ 2024 season is marked more than any team in recent memory how much coaching matters. More than the fact that QB Justin Herbert is one of the best passers in the NFL. More than the fact that the defense has played greater than the sum of it’s parts all season. Jim Harbaugh has turned LAC from a perennial disappointment when expectations are high to a squad that rises up in the biggest moments. There’s finally a winning culture in the building for a team that has boasted great talent throughout the years. If I’m an AFC division winner, I don’t want to draw the Chargers in the Wild Card Round.
5. Denver Broncos
Playoff Chance: 91%
Driving Force: Great Play-calling & Splashy Defense
Label: Tough Out
The Broncos have won all year with brilliant offensive design and big-play defense. Sean Payton’s offense, led by Rookie QB Bo Nix, does a great job of dialing up plus matchups for their weapons on the outside and out of the backfield. The design helps keep the Rookie clean with quick passing concepts and rollouts, utilizing Nix’s mobility, and also giving him chances to push the ball down the field when the look is there. On defense, the pass rush has been relentless at times, ranking near the top of the league in sacks, but it also forces teams into mistakes against a tough secondary led by DPOY candidate Pat Surtain.
6. Washington Commanders
Playoff Chance: 78%
Driving Force: Explosive Rookie QB
Label: Tough Out
Jayden Daniels went through a mid-season slump, but came out of it looking like the smart, efficient QB that took the league by storm early in the season. He still is so good at picking when to use his legs and scramble or to set up the pass down the field. His feel, patience, and calm in the pocket are very CJ Stroud-like, but his rushing ability is on another level. If he can keep the offense humming with good decision-making and high-level execution like he’s done most of the season, the surprising Commanders could surprise yet again as a Wild Card team.
7. Seattle Seahawks
Playoff Chance: 36%
Driving Force: High Ceiling on Both Sides of the Ball
Label: Tough Out
When Seattle is clicking on offense and defense, they can hang with just about anybody in the NFC. When Geno Smith is at his best, he’s an elite point guard, expertly reading coverages and delivering tight-window throws to his big-play weapons in the passing game. On defense, 1st year HC Mike MacDonald’s group has really come together since the bye week, stifling both the run and the pass with impressive schematics and specifically a front 7 that flows to the football and wreaks havoc up front. Neither group is extremely consistent, which will likely be their downfall in the postseason if they indeed make the dance.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Playoff Chance: 35%
Driving Force: Intermittently Explosive on Offense
Label: Lucky Draw for Opponent
The Falcons currently have the best odds of any team sitting outside the playoff picture to actually get in, even though they might not be the most intimidating group in the league. The expectations for this Falcons team to start the year were pretty high, and at times they’ve looked like a team ready to be in the contender conversation in the NFC, but Kirk Cousins poor play of late, ending with his benching after Week 15, as well as the defense’s inability to improve throughout the year, especially up front, means Atlanta is probably on the outside looking in again in 2024.
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