Hello and welcome to my weekly picks against the spread (ATS) article. This is one of the weekly pieces I’m really excited about because it keeps me accountable if I lead you guys astray. That said, it is Week 1, and even Vegas doesn’t quite know what to expect from teams yet. But we’re still giving it everything we’ve got. Without further ado, here are my Week 1 picks ATS, with spreads from ESPN Bet.

Ravens @ Chiefs (-3)

The Chiefs are the favorites, and why wouldn’t they be? They’re the reigning Super Bowl champions, and Arrowhead will be rocking on opening night. It’s the ultimate home-field advantage. But don’t sleep on the Ravens—they’re coming in with a chip on their shoulder after losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game last season. I expect Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry to set the tone early and make this a tough contest.
Chase’s Pick: Ravens (+3)

Packers vs. Eagles (-2.5)

This is shaping up to be a great game. It could turn into a high-scoring shootout, but I can also envision both teams starting slowly due to travel. The Eagles are loaded with offensive firepower and should be able to score on anyone, while the Packers have bolstered their offense with the addition of Josh Jacobs. Jordan Love also has a solid group of wide receivers at his disposal. Both defenses struggled last season but have made key improvements, so this one could go either way.
Chase’s Pick: Eagles (-2.5)

Cardinals @ Bills (-6.5)

A touchdown spread? I’m not sure I see what Vegas is seeing with the Bills here. The Cardinals may not be contenders, but they’re going to be scrappy and will give even good teams headaches. Josh Allen is adjusting to life without his top two wide receivers from last year, so I’ll be watching closely to see how he handles that change.
Chase’s Pick: Cardinals (+6.5)

Patriots @ Bengals (-8.5)

The Patriots are probably one of the worst teams in the NFL, while the Bengals are among the most explosive. As of Thursday, Ja’Marr Chase’s status for the game is uncertain, but that doesn’t sway my pick much. I still think the Bengals will cover, though the line could shift depending on whether he’s officially ruled out.
Chase’s Pick: Bengals (-8.5)

Vikings (-1.5) @ Giants

Sam Darnold vs. Daniel Jones—yikes. Both teams are likely bottom-dwellers in their divisions, so this isn’t the most exciting matchup. That said, I think the Vikings are just a bit better overall and should come out on top in this one.
Chase’s Pick: Vikings (-1.5)

Titans @ Bears (-3.5)

Two young quarterbacks, Will Levis and Caleb Williams, will face off to kick off the season. The Bears look like an exciting team on paper, while the Titans remain solid despite losing their best offensive player. DeAndre Hopkins is questionable, so Calvin Ridley could step up as the WR1 for the Titans. This game has sneaky potential to be one of the most entertaining of the week.
Chase’s Pick: Bears (-3.5)

Panthers @ Saints (-4)

The NFC South isn’t exactly strong, and this game will highlight that. Bryce Young will be looking to rebound from a rough rookie season—he can’t do much worse than last year. Meanwhile, the Saints somehow managed to win six games by double digits last season, but I’m not too excited about this matchup.
Chase’s Pick: Saints (-4)

Steelers @ Falcons (-3.5)

The Falcons are getting a lot of attention after adding Kirk Cousins, Justin Simmons, and trading for Matthew Judon. But Cousins is coming off an Achilles injury, and until I see him play, I’m skeptical. Meanwhile, the Steelers are being overlooked—again. But as long as Mike Tomlin is on the sideline, I’m not counting Pittsburgh out. They haven’t had a losing season under his leadership.
Chase’s Pick: Steelers (+3.5)

Jaguars @ Dolphins (-3.5)

Two Florida teams battling it out in the September heat. There’s a home-field advantage in Miami that many people forget about—away teams sit in direct sunlight while the Dolphins enjoy the shade. Combine that with Miami’s explosive offense, and it could be a rough day for Jacksonville. I think the Jaguars are just slightly above average, but not quite on the Dolphins’ level.
Chase’s Pick: Dolphins (-3.5)

Texans (-3) @ Colts

The Texans are a popular pick to win the AFC South, and it’s easy to see why. They’ve added Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs to an already talented offense. C.J. Stroud is looking to build on his impressive rookie campaign, and I think DeMeco Ryans is one of the best coaches in the league. The Colts’ biggest question mark is Anthony Richardson. We saw flashes of brilliance from him last year, but how will he hold up over time?
Chase’s Pick: Texans (-3)

Raiders @ Chargers (-3)

This might ruffle some feathers, but I’m not sold on the Chargers. And between you and me, I think Justin Herbert is a bit overrated. The Raiders, on the other hand, are being overlooked. Their defense could be a top unit this year, and Gardner Minshew at quarterback isn’t a bad option, especially with Davante Adams leading the skill positions.
Chase’s Pick: Raiders (+3)

Broncos @ Seahawks (-6)

The Broncos could be bad this year—so bad that I wouldn’t be surprised if Sean Payton bails on this rebuild. The Seahawks may not be elite, but they’re a lot better than the Broncos. Plus, Bo Nix’s NFL debut will be worth keeping an eye on, especially at one of the loudest stadiums in the league.
Chase’s Pick: Seahawks (-6)

Cowboys @ Browns (-2.5)

Are the Browns overrated? Maybe, but they still have Deshaun Watson under center, and their defense is formidable. Meanwhile, Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy is on the hot seat, and the vibe in Dallas isn’t great with Dak Prescott expected to test free agency after the season. This year could either go really well or really poorly for the Cowboys.
Chase’s Pick: Browns (-2.5)

Commanders @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

The NFC South stinks, but so might the Commanders. At least Jayden Daniels gives Washington some excitement. I’m not sure the Bucs should be favored, but here we are.
Chase’s Pick: Commanders (+3.5)

Rams @ Lions (-4)

A rematch of last season’s Wild Card showdown, but this time without Aaron Donald for the Rams, which is a huge loss. The Lions are emerging as NFC contenders, but don’t sleep on Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Stafford will be looking for revenge after last year’s playoff exit.
Chase’s Pick: Rams (+4)

Jets @ 49ers (-4.5)

Week 1 wraps up with the Jets traveling to face the 49ers. The big question is how Aaron Rodgers will perform after Achilles surgery. The 49ers don’t feel quite right either, but I think they’ll handle their business at home.
Chase’s Pick: 49ers (-4.5)