The Miami Heat currently sit at the 8th seed heading into Sunday’s final NBA regular season games. The defending Eastern Conference Champions have a chance to be as high as the 5th seed entering the NBA postseason, or they will find themselves back in the play-in tournament for a chance to play the Boston Celtics or Milwaukee Bucks in the first round. Either way, Miami Heat fans should relax.

Before I explain why, here is how the season could end for Miami.

5th seed: Miami wins (vs. TOR), Orlando loses (vs. MIL), Indiana loses (vs. ATL), and Philadelphia loses (vs. BKN)

6th seed: Miami wins, Orlando loses, and Indiana OR Philadelphia lose

7th seed: (Scenario A) Miami, Orlando, and Indiana win AND Philadelphia loses | (Scenario B) Miami, Indiana, and Philadelphia win AND Orlando loses | (Scenario C) Miami and Orlando win AND Pacers and 76ers lose

8th seed: Anything else happens

Ideally, any team wants to avoid the play-in tournament. It means extra games, less playoff security, and you’ll matchup with either the Boston Celtics or Milwaukee Bucks, who have both been nearly unstoppable this season. Matching up with the Knicks or Cavaliers, you will have a higher winning probability.

But that’s any team. The Miami Heat aren’t just “any team.” They are the Miami Heat. One year ago, this Miami Heat team became the first play-in team to not only win a playoff series, but the first play-in team to ever reach the NBA Finals. They did so by beating the Bucks in the first round and the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Even if the Heat had to play the Bucks or Celtics in the first round, the Heat proved last year they could beat both teams in a playoff series. They can easily do it once more.

But how did Miami find themselves in this position again? You would assume the Eastern Conference Champions would be at the top of their conference the following year, but there have been some obstacles to this season.

Injuries and fatigue have plagued the Heat this year. We haven’t seen the Heat team at full strength. Since the team acquired Terry Rozier at the deadline with the Hornets, Miami hasn’t had all their pieces playing together. If Butler plays Sunday afternoon, the Heat will only have six players to have played 60 or more games this year.

You’re seeing the effects of deep playoff runs. The Heat have taken their core to the NBA Finals twice in the last four years. You can’t expect the aging star Jimmy Butler to play every night, or your star players like Tyler Herro to avoid injury when they’ve played more than most NBA franchises in that timeframe. By missing those regular season games for rest and recovery, you will lose a good percentage without your star players. It’s as if the team has been jogging on their run, realizing it’s a marathon and not a sprint.

But there will be no resting now. It is go-time! The players understand every game matters now and can charge full-speed ahead the rest of the way. Miami knows what it takes to win a best-of-7 series, and if the situation arises, Miami knows how to win a play-in tournament. Experience and confidence are key in the playoffs, so Erik Spoelstra is leading a well-equipped squad into the postseason.

Not only can you be confident in Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo, but this season has allowed some young players the opportunity to get meaningful playing minutes. We’ve seen the emergence of Nikola Jovic (not to be confused with Nuggets superstar Jokic) into the starting lineup. Duncan Robinson has developed his game from just a 3-point shooter into a more well-rounded offensive threat, along with improvements in his defensive presence. Rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. has played in the most games for the Heat this year and averages 11.8 PPG in 28.1 MPG. Midseason acquisition Terry Rozier has been able to adjust to the offense and find his groove, averaging 16.4 PPG and second on the team with 4.6 APG.

Miami needs a lot of help to get the 5th or 6th seed. It almost seems impossible. The Heat can only control what’s in their domain on Sunday. Where the chips fall is not up to Spoelstra or the team. But if you had to bet on any play-in team making a run, it would be the team who proved they have done it once before. They can certainly do it again.

The Miami Heat might be the most dangerous team in the entire Eastern Conference.