Madison Square Garden Hosts 2nd Hottest NCAA Team (MSU) & Big 10 POY Candidate (D. Harper)

**MGS-New York City, NY**

After pulling out a 2-point win vs. Illinois, MSU will head to the bright lights of New York City and square off against the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers on CBS primetime Saturday at 1:30pm. The defense will have their hands full trying to slow down the 26th NCAA leading scorer in Dylan Harper and Rutgers in an NBA environment at The Garden.

The Spartans moved up to #8 in both polls and remain the Big Ten’s only undefeated team in conference play. However, they are not even the highest rated in any of: KenPom (2nd), Bart Torvik (4th) and Warren Nolan (3rd) with the 13th hottest matchup for that date (according to TeamRankings.com) as Rutgers has struggled to stop teams but averages roughly 5 points less than MSU. Their 11-game win streak, 2nd behind Duke at 12, is the longest since the 2018-2019 season when they finished 32-7 and had a pair of 10+ game win streaks in route to the Final Four, falling to Texas Tech.

Some respect put on these guys name after playing electric basketball and coming off a top 20 win over Illinois, big month up ahead for the Spartans to see what they are made of, but this team has the same vibe of the 2018-19 MSU team, mentally tough https://t.co/ZTiQMWVwM2

— Josh Lee (@JoshLee18994306) January 20, 2025

TALE OF THE TAPE:

While Rutgers is the 61st ranked team in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (Bart Torvik), a respectable 56th in limiting turnovers and defending the 3-pt coming in at 79th, the Scarlet Knights sit second from the bottom in Wins Above the Bubble at -2.2 (99th). Only Minnesota is worse at -3.4 (140th) in the conference. It will be a challenge of overcoming MSU’s largely solid defense, who has taken a bit of shot in their last few games but has risen to the occasion in key moments to secure the momentum needed during their streak of 11-in-a-row.

Coach Steve Pikiell is led by league star Dylan Harper, averaging 19.3 ppg, 5+ reb, 4+ assists on 48.8% FG shooting and an OK 71.6% FT percentage. Harper started on a tear to begin the season, scoring under 20 points only TWICE across the team’s first dozen games including a pair of 35+ point efforts against Notre Dame (36) and Alabama (37) which were in consecutive games. Rutgers beat ND in overtime and fell to the Crimson Tide by only 5. Harper was 23-41 from the field and 25-30 from the FT line with 8 assists and only 5 turnovers. Fello guard Ace Bailey is the team lead in 19.9 ppg with almost 8 reb/game and a solid 39.3% from 3-pt. However, Coach Pikiell relies heavily on those two as both clock in 32+ minutes a game each with only Jeremiah Williams (23.7 minutes/game) averaging 7.2 ppg and Jordan Derkack (21.7 minutes/game) averages 6.7 ppg, 3.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists. The rest of his 5-6 regulars average between 14 and 19 minutes a game.

PLAN OF ATTACK:

Based on the lack of defense by Rutgers, this matchup heavily favors the Spartans who own an elite defensive 2-pt shooting and rebounding margins will prove to be too much. The only real threat will be how they approach the pair of Bailey and Harper; they could opt to bottle them up and force others to beat them or, focus on help side and not allow both to explode while shutting down their teammates while sharing the output as they’ve done on offense.

MSU will look into run the fast break and regain their dominance in the paint in hopes to force Rutgers into poor shot selections early and suffocate any chance of them hanging around. Their elite level FT shooting is something that has been consistent as well, averaging 20+ most of the last several games, which have been a difference maker in some of the more recent close games in finishing them out. Defensively, Fears and Aikins must improve as they’ve been given a boost from Frankie Fidler, in more than one aspect, that has helped offset some off nights on both sides of the ball. Given some of their early first half leads, there have been some excess in 3-pt shoot selections in instance that probably weren’t warranted, that would be best to keep driving to the lane and piling up team fouls against their opponents. During some of their runs, those consecutive shots being missed has resulted in leak outs the other way and a flip of 4-5 points and then suddenly, they’re having to stop a 7-0, 10-2 run after having been up 12-16 points, now narrowed down to a 6–8-point lead and losing momentum.

As long as they focus on their strengths, expect this to be a fairly smooth game for MSU as they tend to play their best on the brightest stages and Coach Izzo will continue to preach his “Strength in Numbers,” motto while keeping this blended team grounded and focused on the larger picture as they look to “cherish the moment” in the Big Apple.