The second episode of State of the AL Central probably isn’t as exciting as last week’s… but I think it’s the calm before the storm as the trade deadline rapidly intensifies.  If nothing else, we know which teams are buyers and sellers and, to an extent, how much.  Most if not all of these teams could look very different this time next week.

1. Cleveland Guardians – 63-42 (.600), 0 GB

The Guards posted a winning week with a split versus Detroit and a winning series against Philly, but two of their three losses were yet more shutouts. Only on Tuesday did they score more than three runs.  For what it’s worth, they faced two teams with very good pitching, but I noted last week that their offense was already slumping.  On top of their recently inconsistent offense, they still have a very incomplete rotation, with Cookie continuing to have a bleak late-career and Curry, something that does not go well with cookies at all, not currently providing innings.  There’s no denying the Guardians are a great team, but they might have some of the widest holes on any competitive roster right now.  Are they going to make a deadline push?  I’d like to think so, but rumors surrounding them have been eerily quiet.  They’ll do something, I’m sure, but if ownership is stingy as usual with the payroll then they might be shopping at the Dollar Tree for players instead of something that will take them to the next level.  They’ll remain stuck facing good pitching with two games against Detroit and then a long, four-game series against Baltimore.  They’ll play that series in Cleveland, but still… fun, fun fun…

Ah, I didn’t mean for this to be so negative.  You’re good, Cleveland!  It’s okay!  I just wish your ownership spent more!  I’m sure you do too!!

Kwan gone. 😎#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/o6O9sjaZB2

— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) July 28, 2024

2. Minnesota Twins – 58-46 (.558), 4.5 GB (WC2)

The Twin Cities had a good week, winning four of their six games to chip off half a game from Cleveland’s lead.  Minnesota’s offense has always been their forte, but it hasn’t run on full power much of the season.  Royce Lewis returned from the injured list (again) and almost immediately slapped his 11th home run.  He’s played in 27 games this season, by the way.  I’m sure he won’t keep hitting home runs in 10% of his total at bats forever, but he doesn’t need to.  The Twins scored five or more runs in all four of the games they won this week, and funny enough Royce had little to do with any of them.  Better yet, their rotation is accelerating with Ober having a particularly brilliant summer, with his July ending with eight one-hit, shutout innings and eleven strikeouts against Detroit.  Woods Richardson has been on a surprising tear lately and Pablo López has thrown many more good games than bad ones lately.  This team’s problem?  They’re super cash-strapped.  So, it seems like they won’t be adding much unless they can shed whatever un-optimized salary they can, such as Christian Vázquez.  That would also require giving up even more prospects and have you seen the prospects getting dealt?  It might be quiet in the north, but I also think they have enough to work with internally to keep a playoff spot.

Bailey Ober strikes out the side 😤

He now has a career-high 11 Ks on the day. pic.twitter.com/vkgLh9gsE6

— MLB (@MLB) July 28, 2024

3. Kansas City Royals – 57-49 (.538), 6.5 GB (WC3)

The Royals had a winning homestand, but went 2-4 on the week to Arizona and Chicago (the not-terrible one) and may have even bigger problems than they realized.  Hunter Harvey was a solid acquisition, but closer James McArthur, who’s seldom been reliable to begin with had two catastrophic outings over the week.  The problem is that the Royals don’t have much to work with in terms of prospect capital, and as somewhat noted above, the returns sellers are getting for their closers is bordering on ridiculous.  This is really not the best season to be a buying team with a bad farm system.  On top of that, they need a bat or two as they don’t have any internal options to step things up.  It’s too late for the Royals to turn tail and run with the season they’ve had and how long they’ve waited for it, but it’s going to be a stressful Tuesday for fans, corny internet writers and executives alike, no doubt.  And the scariest thing is that you can’t be sure this team will remain this good without adding.  Lugo and Ragans were roughed up in their starts, and while I’m not trying to scream “REGRESSION!” with just one bad outing from either, KC really cannot afford their starting pitchers, the nucleus of their current success, to stumble even a little bit.  It’s all hands on deck, but they need more hands and a bigger deck.  They sure do seem to beat the odds pretty often, though…  Also, they get to play the White Sox and Tigers this week, so, good for them.

everyday I get more and more sold on Ketel Marte NL MVP. pic.twitter.com/QKOjWcycZ8

— Mack Huff (@HackMuff) July 25, 2024

4. Detroit Tigers – 52-55 (.486), 12.0 GB (5.5 WCGB)

I teased the idea of the Tigers having a season-changing week if they could tear on the Guardians and Twins, but instead they went 3-4 and seem to be firm sellers.  Also, Riley Greene and Reese Olson went on the IL.  Oh well.  I don’t think losing games and selling your good players is ever fun, especially if your team is in the longest active playoff drought of the sport, but at least this is a good time to be on the brink.  Jack Flaherty has been excellent for them and should be one of the top available pitchers in a very seller-friendly market.  Detroit will still have a Cy Young campaign to keep them entertained for the rest of the season… and thank God for that or else this would be a weekly bashing of Javy Baez.  Eugh.  Hey, Colt Keith is still surging ahead at least!  Hopefully this deadline can be a head start on building a better lineup around him.

CHIEF KEITH 🚀 pic.twitter.com/wibtCxiUwj

— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) July 28, 2024

5. Chicago White Sox – 27-81 (.275), 37.5 GB (31.0 WCGB)

Soak that in.  The White Sox have lost 81 games already.  Before the trade deadline on July 30, the White Sox have already mathematically eliminated themselves from having a winning season.  It’s been so long since they’ve won a game that I think Biden was still posting Dark Brandon memes on Twitter when they did.  Sure!  The Sox have really valuable players and could feast on this deadline!  The problem is, one of those most valuable assets declared himself to be above pitching in the playoffs unless he gets an extension.  Apparently the White Sox found out about this demand on Twitter like everyone else.  Very normal things happening over here.  The only actual question to ask is if the White Sox trade Luis Robert Jr., and if so then for what?  They’ve reportedly demanded the moon and the stars for him, but I don’t think that works when “him” has only accrued 1.0 WAR on the season and is owed $15M next year.  Do they hold on and try trading later?  Oi, this really is the late ’10s Royals all over again with their unwillingness to trade Whit Merrifield.  Also, it’s “rumored” that A.J. Pierzynski will be their manager next year, so… that’s cool I guess.  Not like it can get any worse, right?

The White Sox have their second 14-game losing streak of the season pic.twitter.com/a5XyT9CKsH

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 28, 2024