2025 Arrives- MBB MSU vs. OSU Breakdown 

**Friday, 1/3 8:00pm EST on FOX**

VALUE CITY ARENA – Columbus, OH

The holidays are over, reunions completed, and the Spartans carry a 6-game winning streak into the resumption of Big Ten play.

#18 (AP)/#15 (Coaches) Michigan State, 11-2, (2-0 Big Ten) travels to Ohio State, 9-4 (1-1 Big Ten) ahead of their contest on Friday, 1/3 to start the new year and resume the gauntlet that is conference play. After starting the year ranked, the Buckeyes led by first year Head Coach Jake Diebler, dropped 3 of 4 games (Pitt, Maryland and #2 Auburn) before their current 3-game win streak that will also be on the line. The wins came against Valparaiso, #4 Kentucky and topping 100+ points vs. Indiana St. Sycamores.

The Hoop Feed: Tom Izzo wants Michigan State’s turnovers down, Jase Richardson’s shot attempts up

“We have to get (Richardson) eight or nine shots per game. He’s so efficient. I mean, his numbers are off the chart.”

MSU basketball notebook (On3+): https://t.co/lY4p0XhEf7 pic.twitter.com/XFihws8Ic3

— Jake Lyskawa (@jakelyskawa) January 2, 2025

TALE OF THE TAPE:

Coach Deibler’s squad is led by double digit scorers; Bruce Thornton (Jr-G) at 17.4 ppg, 4.8 asts, 3.1 reb and 55+FG %, Devin Royal (So-F) sporting a 14.8 ppg, 7.5 reb and efficient 60.2% FG, capped by teammate John Mobley Jr (Fr-G) contributing 12.2 ppg, while shooting 47.8% 3-pt and 89.3% FT. Micah Parrish, Aaron Bradshaw and Meechie Johnson Jr all average 9+ ppg as well. Their scoring focus is on the inside-out combo of Thornton and Royal who tally 32+ ppg combined, 10+ reb with Bruce hitting from the arc at 49%

The Buckeyes rotation includes a regular 8–9-man depth with 7 averaging 20+ minutes per game, along with Sean Stewart and Ques Glover averaging 15+ mpg each. Leading scorer Thornton plays a whopping 32.9 mpg. As a whole, the team struggles from the free-throw line (69.7%) largely being carried by Thornton, Parrish, Royal and Mobley Jr as the only players at 70+%.

Edge Inside the Numbers:

On the surface, the clubs have similar numbers with MSU holding a +6.5 edge in rebounds, +3.3 assists while OSU has almost a 2 steals per game margin along with around a 5% FG shooting edge as well. In the more detailed metrics, OSU has had a better start in offensive and defensive effective FG % (13th-57.7% /12th-43.9%) compared to MSU (112th-5.25% /42nd-46.2%). However, the Spartans have cleaned up on the offensive rebounds substantially better ranking 23rd at 37.1% compared to OSU at 254th at 27.5% and MSU owns an impressive 6th ranking at 23.5% compared to OSU just above average, 142nd-29.0% (30% is the average for Bart Torvik for Division 1; 30+ on offense is better and <30 is better on defense).

The difference is going to come down to 3-pt shooting, foul trouble early at key matchups for free-throws and fast break points. OSU doesn’t shoot many more from deep compared to the Spartans, but they do convert at a respectably better rate (39.6%) as MSU continues to build on their early season struggles (now up to 28.8%, 327th in Division 1). MSU will rely on their defense, limiting second chances on defense while crashing on offense (10% offensive edge) and getting to the charity stripe where OSU’s FT defensive rate allowed is near MSU’s average FT rate taken. OSU also averages 3 more fouls a game, which could hurt them should they find a starter or two in foul issues before half time as their bench production drops off compared to MSU who has neared a 50/50 split with their solid 10-man rotation with nobody playing Thornton-like minutes.

Jase Richardson has started the season with some phenomenal shooting numbers pic.twitter.com/iVSkrXyvxl

— Bucknell Sports Analytics (@BuckAnalytics) January 2, 2025

Sizzling Spartans & The Rise of Legacy Richardson:

Xavier Booker, Coen Carr and Jaxon Kohler have been sharing the front court production and highlight dunks over the holidays with Akins pouring it in from deep, filling most stat lines impressively during their run prior to their victory against WMU. Tre Holloman, Jaden Akins, Jeremy Fears Jr and Jase Richardson continue to help move the offense, run the transition and finishing at the free-throw line. However, it has been flowing through freshman-budding star, Jase Richardson.

At times, we’ve seen #11 move fluidly, thread the needle and make almost effortlessly looking jump shots across a balanced attack. Given some of the previous players to don the jersey number such as Magic Johnson, Cassius Winston, Steve Smith and even Coach Izzo himself, MSU fans are buzzing that Jase is blossoming into his own star status as his 2000 National Champion father, Jason Richardson, did in his first year under Coach Izzo. In his last 5 games Jase is playing 20.4 minutes/game while producing: 8.8 ppg (16 vs NEB), 2.6 ast, 2.8 reb, 0.8 steals while turning it over only 6 times. His yearly average is up to almost 10 ppg (9.8ppg) while shooting an impressive 63.6% FGs, 84.6% FTs, and 54.5% 3-pt (12-22). He runs the break very well with Fears, Akins and Holloman and has a much better feel and understanding of the game as to when to take his shots within the attack. This is allowing him a higher frequency of scoring opportunities, free throws and while budding into another scoring threat amongst a balanced team. Coach Izzo was quoted saying they need to get him 8-9 shots a game given how efficient he has been and for the rest of the Big Ten, that could spell trouble. Look out for him to take on expanded scoring in games where his back court mates may have off-games while improving his already respectable defense against his sparkling assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.375 (27:8).

The projection is rightfully a close one. MSU is a slight underdog as they are playing on the road in a Quad 1 tilt with two teams trending in the right direction. 3-pt shooting has been an Achilles heel for MSU but have made up for it with elite 2-pt FG efficiency, team free-throw shooting and improving overall defense. OSU will look to hit their 3’s early to put the pressure on MSU, force them into additional turnovers and quickly transitioning back to defense to stymie their fast break advantage (MSU ranks Top 5 in the nation, 20.3 ppg). This will be one of many Big Ten battles but the only one between MSU and OSU this season.

RANKINGS:
Record: 11-2, (2-0 Big Ten). Rankings: AP- 18th, Coaches- 15th.

KenPom: 20th // Bart Torvik: 25th.

Updated KenPom- Off: 33rd, Def: 17th. AdjT: 155th. SOS Net Rtg: 82nd +2.94

Other Metrics: KPI (19th), ESPN SoR (19th), ESPN BPI (28th).

FULL KenPom Stats: https://kenpom.com/index.php

FULL Bart Torvik Stats: https://barttorvik.com/#