The 2024 Home Run Derby is finally here. Tonight, 8 sluggers will swing for the fences at Globe Life Field in Arlington Texas for a chance to join baseball royalty.

Last season Vladimir Guerrero Jr. became the seventh Dominican-born player to win the Home Run Derby after taking down Randy Arozarena in the finals 25-23 at T Mobile Park in Seattle.

Flash forward a year later and the field for this summer’s derby isn’t as flooded with stars as we are accustomed to. MLB superstars like Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Yordan Alverez will not be partaking in baseball’s premier event.

However, this year’s derby field will still provide much to watch for and a hope for any of the eight contestants to take home the Home Run Derby chain.

Let’s break down how likely each of the eight contestants are to be crowned Home Run Derby champion.

8 Alec Bohm, Phillies – Despite not striking you as a huge power hitter, Alec Bohm is having quite the season for the MLB-best Phillies. Bohm has 11 home runs which is the least of anyone in the field. That combined with the fact that Bohm has now prior derby experience puts him at 8.

7 Gunner Henderson, Orioles – Henderson was the first player to announce that he would be partaking in the derby when he dropped the news on a live interview while playing on Sunday Night Baseball a few weeks ago. Henderson has 28 home runs on the year which is the most in the field and could make a lot of doubters eat their words tonight.

6 José Ramírez, Guardians – Ramírez doesn’t have that much more raw power than the people behind him on this list but he does have derby experience which goes a long way. In 2022, Cleveland’s superstar lost in the first round against eventual champion Juan Soto despite hitting 17 bombs. If Ramírez can get hot, don’t be surprised if he wins this thing.

5 Bobby Witt Jr, Royals – If you’re looking for a sleeper pick to win this year’s Derby, look for further than hometown kid Bobby Witt Jr. After playing high school ball at nearby Colleyville Heritage, Witt returns to his hometown to make his Home Run Derby debut. Although he’s never been in an MLB Home Run Derby, Witt won the high school derby back in 2018 at Nats Park.

4 Teoscar Hernandez, Dodgers – No Dodgers fans, Ohtani, Freeman, and Betts won’t be representing you in the Home Run Derby but you do have the guy who has maybe been the best surprise in all of baseball in the form of Teoscar Hernandez. After blasting 19 home runs in the first half, Hernandez was the last contestant to be named to the Derby following his public expression of interest in participating. Hernandez has some elite power so don’t be surprised if he makes a run.

3 Marcell Ozuna, Braves – One of the more underrated stars in all of baseball the last few years has been Braves slugger Marcell Ozuna. With 26 home runs on the season, Ozuna has some of the best raw power in the field. Despite it being his Derby debut, don’t count out Ozuna to have a deep run

2 Adolis Garcia, Rangers – The overwhelming fan favorite in tonight’s Home Run Derby will be Rangers star Adolis Garcia. Looking to become just the fourth player ever to win the Derby in his home ballpark, Garcia is absolutely electric to watch on the field and tonight will be no different. With having prior derby experience and being in his home batters box, watch out for the man they know as El Bombi tonight.

1 Pete Alonso – The overwhelming favorite in tonight’s contest is Pete Alonso who is entering his fifth consecutive derby appearance. Alonso has brought home titles in 2019 and 2021 and is bidding to do it again tonight. Pete Alonso in the derby is always a pleasure to watch and baseball fans are in for another treat tonight.