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The Current State of the Mets Starting Rotation

After spending big the past two offseasons on starting pitching, the New York Mets went into selling mode at the 2023 trade deadline and are now back to rebuilding the rotation for the 2024 season. They remain in the hunt for Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the other pitchers coming from Japan, but that hasn’t stopped them from filling their rotation with options at lower costs as a mere backup plan. The rotation is still in fluctuation and more moves could be made, but it is starting to take shape for next season.

Kodai Senga

During the Mets’ spending spree last offseason, one of the lone survivors ended up being Kodai Senga who turned in an impressive rookie season in the United States. After signing a five-year $75 million contract with the Mets, he became the de facto ace of the rotation by posting a 12-7 record with a 2.98 ERA in 166 1/3 innings over 29 starts. Senga’s signature “Ghost Fork” helped him carve through batters to the tune of 202 strikeouts against 77 walks. He posted a 1.220 WHIP along with a solid 0.9 HR/9 showing that he was quite successful in limiting hits and walks, especially home runs. He did lead the league with 14 wild pitches, but that is only natural with the nasty pitches he has in his arsenal. In his first season, he was named an All-Star, finished seventh in Cy Young voting, and finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. He enters his age 31 season, ready to lead the rotation once again pending any other moves.

José Quintana

A surgery in March to address a lesion on his ribs kept Quintana from pitching until July of the 2023 season. Still, in his limited amount of work in 2023, Quintana was solid in the first year of his two-year $26 million contract with the Mets. The veteran left-hander made 13 starts in the second half of the season, going 3-6 with a 3.57 ERA over 75 2/3 innings. Despite the smaller size of work last season, he still had a 118 ERA+, showing that he was better than 18% of the league on the mound. Quintana did see a dip in his strikeout numbers last season while his walks remained consistent but a full, healthy, season could allow the 35-year-old a chance to eat at least 150 innings for the Mets while turning in reliable outings.

Luis Severino 

The first major move of the offseason for the Mets, Luis Severino now moves from the Bronx to Queens to play for the other New York team in MLB. Severino, 29, has spent all eight seasons of his career with the New York Yankees to generally successful results where he threw 638 innings with a 3.39 ERA and 709 strikeouts against 181 walks in his first seven seasons. Injuries derailed him from 2019 to 2021, but he returned strong in 2022 but struggled during the 2023 season where he posted a 6.65 ERA over 89⅓ innings. The Mets are banking $13 million on Severino to return to form, stay healthy, and solidify a rotation that is uncertain after the two mentioned above. If he can do that, they will be receiving a former All-Star and Cy Young candidate in the rotation, which is a nice addition to have.

Adrian Houser

Just this week the Mets made a trade to acquire Adrian Houser from the Milwaukee Brewers along with outfielder Tyrone Taylor. Houser has been a reliable contributor for the Brewers, mainly as a starter.  From 2019 to the present, he’s appeared in 120 games, including 97 starts. In his 523 2/3 innings pitched, he has a 4.04 ERA to go along with a  19.2% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. He won’t necessarily overpower opposing batters and can struggle with walks, but he has shown a knack for keeping the ball on the ground over 50% of the time. He hasn’t tossed many innings over his career with 142 being his career-high in 2021. Still, he slots in as a reliable backend starter who could be a contingency should they fail to sign one of their higher-end targets this offseason. He’ll be a free agent after the 2024 season, but at a projected salary near $6 million, it’s a bargain compared to the free agent market this year.

Tylor Megill

The final slot in the rotation is up for grabs at the moment and one of the leaders would be Tylor Megill. In his third big league season, Megill made 25 starts and pitched a career-high 126 1/3 innings with a passable 4.70 ERA to go along with 105 strikeouts and 58 walks. Finding his command is still an area of development for Megill as he also works to limit the amount of home runs given up. Still, he has been a reliable arm thus far and sports a lively 95 mph fastball with a couple of secondary pitches. He’s only 28 and has several more years of team control.

Joey Lucchesi

Joey Lucchesi saw limited time with the Mets in 2023 but saw success in his brief sample size. Lucchesi made nine starts last season with the Mets, recording a 2.89 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 46 2/3 innings. Since coming over to the Mets in 2021 has spent a good amount of time in the minors and found some success both there and at the big league level. He hasn’t had a chance to pitch a full season in the big leagues since 2020 when he made 30 starts with the San Diego Padres. There is still an opportunity for him to contribute on the mound and eat plenty of innings throughout the season. He just has to remain healthy and show the Mets he can be trusted to do so.

José Butto

José Butto is likely to start the season in Triple-A but was able to get more of an extended look at the big league level in 2023. Butto impressed throughout September, as he allowed two runs or less in four of his five appearances. He also threw six innings or more in three of those five starts. It was an important development for a young arm to set himself as a quality depth option heading into 2024. The Mets are still looking for free-agent help, but he could be a nice fallback if he manages to impress in spring training and essentially force himself into the rotation. In nine games last season, he pitched to a 3.64 ERA in 42 innings. He will need to improve his command to further enhance his strikeout numbers.

David Peterson

It’s worth mentioning David Peterson even though he will be on the injured list until May or June to start the season. He underwent a hip procedure which will sideline him, but once he returns he will be another starting option for the Mets in the latter half of the season. He struggled in the first half of the season but in his final 10 starts of 2023 between August and September, Peterson was 0-1 but posted a 3.88 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 48 2/3 innings. The left-hander will likely be a depth boost when he returns but the Mets aren’t going to stand by and count on it.

Ultimately, the Mets have plenty of solid options at their disposal, but Steve Cohen and the company are desperate to help the Mets win again, meaning that they are trying to spread the money out to bring in talent. There are plenty of top-of-the-line starters still available and the Mets are likely in the running for them, but as it stands they could survive if they need to.

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