The Atlanta Braves recently made a stunning trade to acquire left-handed pitcher Chris Sale along with $17 million from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Vaughn Grissom. It was just the latest move by Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos in what has been a busy offseason. The Braves have earned the benefit of the doubt with any move they make but the acquisition of Sale shows they are willing to take a gamble and have faith that Sale is healthy and ready to contribute to a contending team once again.

This belief was made clear Thursday morning when the Braves reached a new two-year, $38 million deal with an $18 million club option for 2026. Initially, Sale was set to make about $27.5MM in 2024, with $10 million of that money being deferred until 15 years in the future. 2024 was the final year of the five-year, $145 million extension he and the Red Sox signed in 2019, which also included a $20 million club option for 2025. With the $17 million coming from the Sox, Atlanta was only going to be paying him $500K, but they have now restructured with a new deal that overwrites the previous one. Sale will now earn $16 million in 2024 and $22 million in 2025, and no longer has the deferred payments down the road.

It’s a gamble but also a show of faith by the Braves that the soon-to-be 35-year-old Sale is not only healthy but capable of maintaining that health and can contribute to their rotation. From 2012-18, Sale was oft considered one the best pitchers in the sport. During that stretch between time with the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox, Sale was a seven-time All-Star and finished in the top six in Cy Young Award voting each year. He made 207 starts, pitching 1,388 innings, compiling a 2.91 ERA with 1,678 strikeouts and 300 walks.

Following a lackluster season in 2019, injuries began to take a toll on Sale’s body. The funky lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020 and battled both a rib fracture and right wrist fracture during the 2022 season. After being a durable and reliable starter for a decade, Sale made just 11 starts from 2020-22. There was hope that he would be able to return in full health in 2023 but was again plagued by the injury bug to an extent as he was sidelined with a a stress reaction to his left scapula. Still, he was able to make 20 starts and toss 102 2/3 innings to the tune of a 4.30 ERA.

The Braves are betting on the fact that Sale ended the season healthy after pitching to a 3.92 ERA in his final nine starts once he returned from the injured list in August. The team could have easily seen what he could do in 2024 and walked away after the season, but instead locked him in for another year with the hopes that he can show some resemblance of his former self if he manages to stay on the mound.

When in tip-top shape, Sale still has the prowess of an ace on the mound. In 2023, he still managed to rank positively in numerous pitching percentiles.

While he has seen a dip in fastball velocity over the years, all of his pitches have been rather effective and consistent as he’s gotten older. His strikeout numbers remain quite impressive and will be a huge asset in 2024. In his 20 starts last season, Sale totaled 125 strikeouts against 29 walks in those 102 innings. From 2012-18 he had at least 200 strikeouts in six of those seasons, including a 300-strikeout season in 2017. Sale’s ability to pound the zone, mix up his arsenal, limit hard-hit balls, and limit walks is worth the price. It will all hinge on his ability to stay healthy and avoid extended time on the injured list.

“We feel like this is the first normal offseason [Sale] will have had in a long time,” Anthopoulos said to reporters after the trade. “But at the same time, he’s still coming off just a hundred innings pitched last year, so we’ll be mindful of that. We don’t put limits on any of our starters, but we do take it day by day if guys need to skip a bullpen or need extra days between starts.”

Signing a new deal for Sale not only gives him more financial security should injuries sideline him again this season, but also gives the Braves some rotation certainty after the 2024 season. Max Fried is a pending free agent while Charlie Morton is closer to retirement. Spencer Strider is the only guaranteed starter for the 2025 season while the Braves try to sort through younger options and needs moving forward. Sale gives them just one less thing to worry about and in hindsight could end up being a bargain for the team since he practically costs them nothing this season thanks to the money from the Red Sox.

The new deal also helps lower the Braves competitive balance tax obligations for this season. Prior to this new deal, Sale was going to have a $27.5 million CBT hit with the Red Sox responsible for $17 million of that. This new deal cuts that total down $19 million with the Braves paying just $2 million on the CBT this season and $19 million next season. The team was close to the third tax threshold with the initial trade, but will now have a little bit more breathing room to make some more moves before and during the regular season.

All in all, it’s a gamble to take a veteran on a large contract that has been plagued by injury in exchange for a young infield prospect. However, this move has a lot of potential to pay off big for the Braves as they try to carry on the momentum of the 2023 season. The Braves are a historic and reputable franchise capable of helping Sale return to form, and they have all the faith in the world in a healthy Chris Sale.