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Is Mitch Garver The Answer for the Seattle Mariners?
It has been an interesting offseason for the Seattle Mariners and a tumultuous one for their fans. After reaching the postseason for the first time in over 20 years in 2022, the team did little to improve for the 2023 season but still managed to narrowly miss the playoffs on the back of a stellar pitching staff. Rather than build on that momentum, one would be hard-pressed to make the argument that the Mariners are better off for the 2024 season as they are now than they were at the end of the season. Several players have been traded away or departed via free agency and very little has come back to replace them. Sure, they have been involved in some rumors across the market, but it wasn’t until a day or so before Christmas that the team finally made some sort of splash in free agency when they signed Mitch Garver to a two-year $24 million contract.
Garver, entering his age 33 season, enters his eighth big league season since debuting with the Minnesota Twins in 2017. In five seasons with the Twins, Garver hit .256/.341/.494 with 53 home runs and a 123 wRC+ over 309 games. His best season came in 2019 when he won a Silver Slugger award after clubbing 31 home runs and 67 RBI with a .995 OPS and .273 AVG in just 93 games. Before the 2022 season, he was traded to the Texas Rangers where he was limited to 141 games due to injuries in both 2022 and 2023 but still managed 29 home runs, including 19 in 2023. Garver has had no shortage of power in his career and is likely ready to make a full-time transition to a designated hitter role with the Mariners with the ability to catch from time to time if needed, as well as play first base. The question remains, however, is he the answer the Mariners are looking for?
Entering the offseason the Mariners had a desire; to limit the amount of strikeouts on the team. They have done so with the subtractions of Eugenio Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez, and Jarred Kelenic and now have the prospect of Garver improving on that mark. In his career, Garver boasts a 25.6 K% which is slightly above the league average but the other metrics surrounding his plate discipline are appealing to the Mariners’ goals. To go along with that mark he has an above average 11.1 BB% showcasing his ability to draw walks and keep his strikeouts in check. Those attributes are sure to be attractive to the Mariners as is his 76.8% contact rate. Additionally, his 17.4% chase rate last year ranked in the 98th percentile, per Statcast, while his 12.8% walk rate was in the 90th percentile.
Garver is likely never going to hit for a particularly high average, but his ability to get on base will be aided by the walk and contact rate as well as his power numbers. The trade-off for his type of slugging ability is a welcome addition but there are still concerns that come with the signing as well as questions the Mariners will need to answer.
Garver’s longevity and durability are certainly going to be a question mark throughout this contract. With a $12 million AAV, it’s expected that Garver will play well over 100 games each season, a feat he has accomplished just once when he played 102 games in 2018. He needed right forearm flexor tendon surgery in 2022 and lost two months of the 2023 season with a knee sprain. If the Mariners are going to take advantage of his skills, they are going to need a healthy Garver who can prove he can play every day and reach at least 110 games. When he is healthy he can contribute, but he’s always been limited on the field. Hopefully, a full-time role as the DH will help him along the way.
There is also the matter of what the Mariners do next. Garver is the first multi-year contract the Mariners have handed out to a free-agent hitter under Jerry Dipoto. He is a worthwhile addition, but does he make up for what they have lost so far or didn’t choose to pursue? Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez presented more established sluggers that have proven durable longevity but may not fit into whatever payroll or offensive scheme the club has established. It’s well known the Mariners are trying to navigate a constrained payroll budget, partly due to their current broadcast situation at ROOT sports (much like the rest of the league with RSNs).
Dipoto has stated the team is hoping to add at least another outfielder, but will it be a worthwhile addition? The team may have to forego the free agent market now and turn to the trade avenue, a proven strategy in the past. The point of the matter is that Garver can not stand as the headline addition of the offseason for the Mariners.
The Mariners are slowly seeing their window of contention close because of their inability, or refusal, to build their offense. The team has an idea and/or plan of what they want the offense to be, but has been slow in addressing that goal while cutting down the roster. The team needs bats but may be outpriced in that avenue and must try to be savvy in their approach. Garver is a solid addition who will no doubt contribute plenty offensively and help provide catching guidance, but he is not enough to push the Mariners back to the postseason. Garver is simply part of the solution, but not the whole answer for the Mariners as they enter 2024.
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