The baseball world has been wondering what exactly the Boston Red Sox’s intentions are heading into the 2024 season. There hasn’t been much action aside from moves that seemed designed more to save payroll than anything else. Tyler O’Neil hopes to bounce back for his new team while the team traded away Chris Sale along with $17 million to the Atlanta Braves for young infielder Vaughn Grissom. Alex Verdugo was sent to the New York Yankees while the Red Sox continued to make minor moves and trades. They have been operating like a team not looking to spend, despite being connected to so many top-tier free agents,  which made the signing of Lucas Giolito so interesting.

On December 29, the Red Sox signed Giolito to a two-year, $38.5 million deal which also includes an opt-out after the 2024 season. Once regarded as one of the top starters in the American League from 2019-2021, Giolito had a 3.47 ERA in 427 2/3 innings over 72 starts to go along with 526 strikeouts and 137 walks. He started to take a downturn in 2022 but still turned in a respectable 4.90 ERA over 30 starts before things went off the rails a bit in 2023.

Giolito showed a return to form with the White Sox going 6-6 with a 3.79 ERA over 21 starts. This prompted the Los Angeles Angels to trade for Giolito at the Trade Deadline, but would waive Gioltio after just six starts whereupon he was claimed by the Cleveland Guardians where he continued to struggle. After a solid first half, Gioltito took a sharp turn into ineffectiveness,  pitching to a 6.89 ERA with the Angels and a 7.04 ERA with the Guardians. He ended up leading the American League in home runs allowed (41) and finds himself questionable if he can regain his old form.

It’s unclear what led to Giolito’s sharp decline after getting traded, but a move to the Red Sox could be beneficial. One notable acquisition the Red Sox made this offseason was the hiring of Andrew Bailey as their pitching coach. The former big league reliever spent the last four seasons as the pitching coach for the San Francisco Giants where the pitching staff ranked sixth in the Majors with a 3.80 ERA while allowing the fewest home runs (525) and posting the third-highest strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.16). The hope is that Bailey can not only help a veteran like Giolito return to form but also help shape the other young arms that have uncertainty about them.

Bailey’s work with Giolito is bound to focus on limiting hard contact. In 2023, Giolito ranked in the 8th percentile in barrel rate and the 32nd percentile in hard-hit rate. The perplexing thing is that his statistical numbers across the board were fairly normal for his career. His walk rate and strikeout rates have been consistent as were his whiff and chase rates. The assumption that makes the most sense is that Giolito was caught over the plate too much and/or opposing batters were quick to jump on a first-pitch fastball.

On the first pitch of an at-bat, opposing batters slashed .342/.346/.711 with eight home runs. Knowing his game plan, opponents jumped on his fastball rather than wait for him to throw his strong changeup or slider. It’s also worth noting that he has close to a 7.00 ERA in the first inning, showing that Giolito’s struggles could stem from aggressive hitters more so than anything he’s doing wrong.

The move to Boston will be beneficial for him, as well as the Red Sox. As mentioned before, the Red Sox are a team that is being more careful with their overall payroll, or at least trying to slash it. Giolito provides them with an established starter with great upside and is only 29 years old. He can lead the rotation and eat plenty at least 170 innings thanks to some reliable durability. Unfortunately for Giolitio, he heads to a tough division, but that competition could be just what he needs to power through to an elite level. Should he perform, he gives the Red Sox a great bargain and a chance to compete and perhaps re-enter the free-agent market. Should he struggle, he has the safety net of being under contract for the 2025 season. Seems like a win-win.

Giolito still has plenty of upside and the Red Sox seemed positioned to take advantage of his abilities. While their offseason has been strange, Giolito is a solid pick-up for a team trying to figure out their identity and a way to compete in the American League East. He doesn’t necessarily make them immediate contenders, and they may still have their eyes on another starter, but Giolito is a solid step in the right direction. He’s the type of pitcher the Red Sox need right now.