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Can Jordan Hicks be an Effective Starter for the Giants?

The MLB offseason is always full of surprises. Charlie Culberson, an infielder his whole career, is attempting to convert to a relief pitcher at the age of 34 in order to prolong his career with the Atlanta Braves. That’s a rare conversion to pull off but another player trying to make a slightly easier transition is Jordan Hicks who, after reportedly signing a four-year $44 million contract with the San Francisco Giants, is attempting to return to starting pitching. Hicks, 27, has spent almost the entirety of his big league career as a reliever with the St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays, but with a need for starting pitching at a premium and his desire to start, he is going to get a chance, but can he be an effective option?

Originally drafted out of high school in 2015 in the third round by the St. Louis Cardinals, Hicks is best known for his electric fastball. Regularly averaging 100 mph, Hicks has been firing rockets from the mound, even touching 103 mph often and even touching 105 mph. It’s an overpowering pitch that makes him tough to hit, but he has managed to compliment it nicely with a sinker in the 100s, a slider in the high 80s, as well as a changeup that averages 91 mph. His arsenal is effective and dominating, hence why the Cardinals felt better about moving him to the bullpen after two seasons in the minors.

Between 2016 and 2017, Hicks made a total of 31 starts. He featured an ERA under 3.00 each season with plenty of strikeouts and plenty of walks in nearly 165 innings of work. He often worked five or six innings, allowing no more than three runs. He was quite effective as a starter despite some flaws. Needing a permanent place for him with the ability to utilize his arm to the maximum and fast-track him to the big leagues, the Cardinals moved him to the bullpen where he would eventually make his big league debut on Opening Day with the team in 2018.

Hicks has always had a desire to start and he got that opportunity in 2022 after earning the fifth spot in the Cardinals rotation out of spring training. Hicks made seven starts in April and May before landing on the injured list with a right forearm issue, and he averaged about 3.5 innings per start while posting a 5.84 ERA and a 5.54 FIP. The late start of spring training and the regular season in the wake of the CBA being signed didn’t give Hicks much time to prepare and settle in as a starter. He had missed the last bit of the 2019 season because of Tommy John surgery, opted out of the 2020 season as he rehabbed, and then battled more injuries in 2021. At the end of the day, Hicks could have had a longer leash to start, but mitigating circumstances just edged him out and he continued to pitch in relief.

“No, I don’t feel like I got my fair shot [starting],” Hicks told John Denton of MLB.com at the time, adding that he still had starting ambitions “down the road.”

He’ll get his chance in a Giants uniform. The team needs starting help and after losing out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the market for Blake Snell still up in the air, Hicks can slot in nicely among a group of young, unproven starters and Logan Webb. Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray will start the year on the injured list, so Hicks can have the chance to start and fall back to the bullpen if needed.

As a reliever, Hicks relied heavily on his sinker and slider but last season implemented more fastballs to go along with the bowling-ball sinker. Add in the fact that he also implemented a sweeper last season and suddenly he has three to five pitches in his arsenal that he can deploy in his starts. Being able to throw a variety of pitches and tweak how he throws them is going to be paramount for Hicks. But even more important is being able to throw strikes and limit walks.

With the high octane velocity he possesses, Hicks has had trouble commanding it. His career 12.8% walk rate is four ticks higher than the league average and is something he’s going to have to manage much better as a starter. His 24.5% strikeout rate is better than the league average and will continue to do some heavy lifting. A solid comparison for Hicks and the Giants to emulate is the development of Hunter Greene with the Cincinnati Reds. Greene is a fireball pitcher and is going to pound the zone. He has a 30% career strikeout rate thus far and a walk rate under 10%. Yes, he does have an ERA pushing 5.00, but he also plays in a hitter-friendly ballpark where home runs are going to be more common. Hicks has the advantage of pitching at Oracle Park and several other California ballparks, so he’ll be in more pitcher-friendly stadiums.

There is also the hope that the Giants can continue their reputation of helping veteran starters improve. There is the hope that perhaps Hicks can follow the lead of the likes of Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani, Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón.

Hicks has the pitching profile of someone capable of being an effective starter when given the right tools and direction to do so. He’s coming off a healthy season out of the bullpen and has the hunger to prove he isn’t a failed starter. Don’t be surprised if the Giants find a way to get him back to those early minor-league days of being a dominant starter.

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