Spartan’s Game Day Preview- MSU vs Oakland U (12/17)

–DETROIT, MI

Finals are over. Until the final grades come in, it’s time for both Coach Izzo’s Spartans and Coach Kampe’s Golden Grizzlies to resume play.

Both teams will meet up Tuesday evening at Little Caesars Arena for an annual contest that boasts the longest pair of tenured Head Coaches, to date. Greg Kampe has manned the helm since 1984 and Tom Izzo since 1995. They have kept an annual contest on their schedule, rotating locations as both have tremendous respect and admiration for each other, the programs and the communities their schools reside in and beyond in Michigan. Now we will transition from the textbooks to the play books for Tuesday’s matchup.

MSU and Oakland may show some rust as neither has played since 12/7 marking a 10-day hiatus. MSU took down Nebraska while OU suffered a loss to the Penguins of Youngstown State.

ALLEY OOP TO COEN CARR FROM THE FLOOR! 😱 🔥@MSU_Basketball x @coencarr2 pic.twitter.com/j5ULVyJUo5

— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) December 7, 2024

Some may remember the Oakland University Golden Grizzlies as they scored a 14-seed in this past March Madness Tournament, shocking the Kentucky Wildcats in a massive first-round upset. They were led by stars Trey Townsend and 3-point specialist, Jack Gohlke on an unreal run for the program before falling to NC State in the second round of a wild, OT thriller.

OAKLAND STUNS KENTUCKY IN THE FIRST ROUND pic.twitter.com/bnkSQmE2bQ

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) March 22, 2024

Between The Numbers- Can OU Keep It Close?

As for 2024, the Grizzlies have understandably regressed and are off to a slow start at 3-5 having seen a gauntlet non-conference schedule including: UofM, Illinois, Kansas, Boise St and now MSU. MSU owns a sizeable scoring margin gap (+22.4) with an average margin win by 14 points and double OU’s assist total (18.2 compared to 9.6). The one area they have an edge is fouls per game. MSU is at 16 a game with OU at 13.7, but that can be contributed to the fact that their scoring is almost 10 points below their opponent’s averages, coinciding with a drastic Effective FG% difference as OU holds a -6.9% gap with MSU boasting a healthy +5.8% margin. In short, almost every stat projects a sizeable, double-digit outcome in favor of MSU. The size will come down to how hot MSU is on the neutral court and home of the Detroit Pistons.

Aside from the stats, Coach Kampe has a shorter, regular rotation with only 7 players averaging 16.6 minutes or more, leaning heavily on his starters as they collectively average approximately 28 minutes. Of those logging heavy minutes, only 3 players are in double-figures led by: Allen Mukeba (GS- UMKC, 13.6 ppg), Buru Naivalurua (SR- Garden City CC, 12.6 ppg) and DQ Cole (SR- Henry Ford CC, 11.1 ppg). MSU runs 10-deep with only Jaden Akins averaging over 25 minutes with the bulk of his teammates seeing regular playing time, around 19-20 minutes per game.

With the depth edge, we should expect MSU to push the tempo relentlessly, forcing Coach Kampe to dip deeper into his bench and earlier by putting some starters in foul trouble. While the guards and wings have been having success, I imagine Coach Izzo will put emphasis on their interior post play to spark his big men, as he traditionally supports balanced production and prefers not to hyper focus on go-to playmakers too often, besides late-game crunch time. Reason being that the rebound margin and overall fewer boards per game by OU certainly indicates MSU’s forwards should dominate the glass and have ample offensive put-back opportunities. While both coaches ideally would not want to run up the score on each-other, they understand and respect that it’s up to them and their players to make the plays and stops to keep it from ballooning, but all indicators are strong for such a blowout.

12/16 Poll Rankings

-Michigan State moved up 1 spot in the AP Poll for the week of 12/16, checking in at: #20 (AP)/#19 (Coaches).

Checking in 🟢⚪️ pic.twitter.com/FtReRhcNH3

— Michigan State Men’s Basketball (@MSU_Basketball) December 16, 2024