Last week on The Steelers Fix podcast, Jeremy Betz and I made ideal over/under props for multiple different statistics for the Steelers offense in 2024. We are going to expound on that today, specifically at receiver; but first, make sure you listen to this week’s episode of our show in the player below this article!

Last week, we took a look at the quarterbacks and predicted their statistics, which means we must come up with the same amount of receiving yards and touchdowns the quarterbacks threw for. This is a very feasible number for the Steelers, and it is a number that would likely make the Steelers a potential playoff menace if the defense remains intact and healthy.

As always, be sure to share your stat predictions for these players in the comment section below.

George Pickens

Targets: 142
Receptions: 88
Receiving Yards: 1,340
Yards Per Reception: 15.2
Touchdowns: 8

Unless the Steelers trade for another WR1, Pickens should see a major uptick in targets this season. He was the most efficient receiver in the league per catch, averaging 18.2 yards per reception on 63 catches. His 106 targets led the Steelers in 2023, but this offense, higher volume is exactly what Pickens should get. While I do expect the efficiency to come down a little, he has the ability to safely put up Pro-Bowl level numbers.

Pat Freiermuth

Targets: 76
Receptions: 56
Receiving Yards: 684
Yards Per Reception: 11.8
Touchdowns: 6

Last year, Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith combined for 160 targets in Arthur Smith’s system, and 90 of those belonged to Kyle Pitts. Now, Freiermuth is not going to see anywhere near 160 targets himself, but would 100 be out of the question? The tight end plays a vital role in Arthur Smith’s offense, and without a clear-cut WR2 on the roster, I think we see a big, and healthy, season from Pat Freiermuth.

Roman Wilson

Targets: 64
Receptions: 45
Receiving Yards: 602
Yards Per Reception: 13.4
Touchdowns: 3

Wilson is a talented receiver, but the expectations some fans are putting on him are simply unreasonable. However, I do think we see visible development throughout Year 1, and I think we see him develop into an effective WR2 during the second half of the season.

Jaylen Warren

Targets: 63
Receptions: 51
Receiving Yards: 336
Yards Per Reception: 6.6
Touchdowns: 1

Warren cemented himself as one of the most consistent pass-catching backs in the game, and he should see similar volume in 2024. Russell Wilson’s game has changed as he has aged, and one of those changes has been throwing more check-down passes to his running backs. Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine both saw over 50 targets last season, which makes Warren’s projected 51 targets a modest projection.

Calvin Austin III

Targets: 46
Receptions: 28
Receiving Yards: 309
Yards Per Reception: 11.0
Touchdowns: 2

With Austin, the biggest concern is durability. We have seen flashes of his explosiveness deep down the field, but can he stay healthy? Can he get off press coverage consistently? Can he develop his route running? A well-rounded Calvin Austin could make the offense scary, but I am just not sure how high the chances are that we see that.

Najee Harris

Targets: 29
Receptions: 20
Receiving Yards: 106
Yards Per Reception: 5.7
Touchdowns: 1

Once Jaylen Warren developed a consistent role in the offense, Najee’s stock as a receiver dropped significantly. While he is more than able to fulfill a receiving role, he is not quite as explosive as Warren getting upfield with the ball in his hands. Thus, I do not see his receiving role on the team seeing any increase at all.

Darnell Washington

Targets: 28
Receptions: 20
Receiving Yards: 120
Yards Per Reception: 6.0
Touchdowns: 2

Fans seem surprisingly low on Washington this year, but let us not forget that tight end is a position that takes about as long as any to transition from college to the pros. Washington started off the season at less than 100% health, and after a year in the league, I think we could see him triple his stats if he gets the playtime he deserves. I am just not sure he will.

Van Jefferson

Targets: 21
Receptions: 10
Receiving Yards: 129
Yards Per Reception: 12.9
Touchdowns: 1

Jefferson never had a great opportunity to display his talents with the Rams or Falcons, but unfortunately, I am not sure he gets that chance in Pittsburgh either. He will need to capitalize on any early-season snaps he may see, or else his role will be diminished.

Connor Heyward

Targets: 14
Receptions: 9
Receiving Yards: 69
Yards Per Reception: 7.6
Touchdowns: 0

I like Connor Heyward in this offense, but as a runner. With Cordarrelle Patterson being added to the offense and Darnell Washington getting a stronger grip on the NFL game, I expect his targets in the passing game to dwindle away.

Cordarrelle Patterson

Targets: 10
Receptions: 7
Receiving Yards: 48
Yards Per Reception: 6.9
Touchdowns: 0

Could Patterson have a larger role as a receiver than this? Yes, but there are too many other pieces in this offense for him to find a major role, barring injuries.

Other Receivers

MyCole Pruitt

Targets: 6
Receptions: 3
Receiving Yards: 13
Yards Per Reception: 4.3
Touchdowns: 0

Quez Watkins

Targets: 7
Receptions: 3
Receiving Yards: 10
Yards Per Reception: 3.3
Touchdowns: 0

Scotty Miller

Targets: 2
Receptions: 1
Receiving Yards: 12
Yards Per Reception: 12.0
Touchdowns: 0

Justin Fields

Targets: 1
Receptions: 1
Receiving Yards: 12
Yards Per Reception: 12.0
Touchdowns: 0