Week 2 Wrap-Up:

Another 3-for-5 week, folks! So far this season, we’re running at 60%, which is solid considering anything over 55% is a winning strategy in sports betting. Let’s break down how last week played out.

(3) Texas vs. (10) Michigan – TX -7 – HIT

The key to this game was DEFENSE, and surprisingly, it was Texas that dominated on that side of the ball. After a few rough years defensively, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian went all-in during the offseason to find talent, and it paid off. Texas held Michigan to just 12 points, which is an impressive feat against a program like the Wolverines. Heisman candidate Quinn Ewers added to his resume, completing 24 of 36 passes for 246 yards and three touchdowns. While his performance was solid, the real MVP was the defense. If Texas can maintain this defensive form, their odds for a National Championship run are looking very good.

Arkansas vs. (16) Oklahoma State – OKST -7.5 – HIT

This game gave me some serious anxiety. After OSU kicker Logan Ward nailed a 38-yard field goal to take the lead with 55 seconds left, I was ready to throw in the towel. But Arkansas drove downfield to tie the game as time expired, sending it into OT. Even with a touchdown from Ollie Gordon in the second OT, I thought OSU would play it safe and avoid going for two. Yet, Mike Gundy rolled the dice and went for the conversion—much to our favor. Arkansas couldn’t answer, and the Cowboys defense sealed the win. This one kept us sweating, but it’s always nice to start the day with a win.

Iowa State vs. (21) Iowa – Iowa -3 – MISS (Iowa State 20, Iowa 19)

This was a classic Iowa game, for better or worse. They went up early, and as usual, Kirk Ferentz leaned on his defense to close it out. But Iowa’s tendency to get conservative with play-calling once they have a lead caught up with them. Iowa State, showing resilience, clawed back to win it in the final moments. The Hawkeyes just can’t seem to shake their bad habit of letting teams hang around, especially in non-conference games. With the Big Ten schedule looming, Iowa will need to find some offensive rhythm if they want to contend.

(14) Tennessee vs. (24) North Carolina State – NCST +10 – MISS (Tennessee 51, NC State 10)

This game was a lesson learned—never underestimate the top SEC teams. The ACC may have shown some promise early in the season, but Tennessee reminded everyone why they’re part of the SEC elite. Tennessee’s defense completely shut down NC State, allowing only 10 points. While Nico Iamaleava didn’t have a huge day in the air, RB Dylan Sampson more than picked up the slack, rushing for 132 yards and two touchdowns. The Volunteers didn’t need to air it out much when their ground game was this dominant. NC State had no answers, and Iamaleava’s mobility (65 yards and a TD) kept them on their heels all game. Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see how this Tennessee ground game fares against Georgia’s formidable front seven.

Boise State vs. (7) Oregon – BS +21.5 – HIT

This was the easiest pick of the week for me, and it hit. Oregon continues to struggle to find their identity, and Boise State capitalized. Ashton Jeanty was an absolute beast, rushing for 192 yards and three touchdowns. He’s going to be a name we hear a lot in the NFL draft discussions. Boise’s passing game needs work, no doubt, but they have time to figure it out. For now, Jeanty is carrying the load, and if Boise can keep feeding him, they’ll be a force in the Mountain West. Oregon, on the other hand, has some serious issues they need to address if they want to stay competitive this season.

Late Night Chase – Oregon State vs. San Diego State – SDSU +6 – MISS (Oregon State 21, San Diego State 0)

This was a brutal miss. Oregon State’s defense was simply too much for SDSU, and the Aztecs never really had a chance. Apologies again for the bad chase advice, but hopefully you followed my earlier picks and didn’t need to rely on this one.

Week 3 Picks:

(20) Arizona vs. (14) Kansas State – AZ +7

As I said in Week 1, I’m high on Arizona this season. They’ve been stellar in high school recruiting over the last few years and made some savvy additions via the transfer portal. They’ve already put up 61 points on New Mexico, but their close call against Northern Arizona last week might worry some. However, that game was more about penalties than bad play, and I think they’ll clean it up for this highly anticipated Friday night matchup against K-State. Watch out for star WR Tetairoa McMillian, who could take advantage of a K-State defense that’s struggled. Kansas State’s narrow win over Tulane last week, where they gave up 27 points, was a red flag. They blamed the heat and humidity, but I’m not convinced that’s all there is to it.

(4) Alabama vs. Wisconsin – ALA -16

This one shouldn’t even be close. Alabama is in another league, and while Wisconsin may have a solid program, they’re going to get steamrolled on both sides of the ball. Jalen Milroe is due for a breakout game, and I think this Saturday is when we’ll see him put up some big numbers. Expect Alabama’s defense to overwhelm Wisconsin from start to finish. I’d be shocked if the Crimson Tide don’t win by at least three touchdowns.

(16) LSU vs. South Carolina – LSU -7

This is another game where the spread feels almost too good to be true. LSU is just too talented, and after barely losing to USC in Week 1, they’ll be fired up to make a statement. South Carolina may have the home-field advantage, but I don’t think it will matter. LSU should win this one comfortably by multiple touchdowns. Sometimes, the simplest analysis is the best: LSU is just the better team, and 7 points is a gift.

Washington State vs. Washington – UW -4.5

I love that we’re getting an early Apple Cup this season. Washington State has been hot to start the season, but Washington is a different beast. Both QBs—John Mateer for Wazzu and Will Rogers for Washington—have looked great, but the difference in this game will be the weapons around Rogers and the protection he gets from his offensive line. Mateer is a dual-threat guy, but his star WR Kyle Williams has been quiet so far this season. I like Washington to win by a touchdown, so I’ll take them to cover the 4.5.

Georgia vs. Kentucky – GA -24

This is the one I feel good about this week. Cal is for real. Full disclosure: I’m a Cal fan, but they looked great going into Auburn and securing a win last weekend. That defense is legit, and if Oregon State can hold SDSU scoreless, I don’t see why Cal’s defense can’t do the same. Fernando Mendoza at QB has been impressive, especially in the first half of games. If RB Jaydn Ott can find his rhythm, this offense will be dangerous. SDSU looked terrible last week, and I think Cal is better than Oregon State, so I like them to cover this spread.

The Late Night Chase:

San Diego State vs. Cal – Cal -19

I got you guys this week! I hope at least… Cal is the real deal in the ACC! Full discloser as some of you may know especially if you listened to me on Fortune Favors The Fans last season I am a Cal fan. But this team went into Auburn last weekend and got a big W. That Cal defense is no joke and if Oregon State can hold San Diego State to scoreless I don’t know why Cal can contain them to a close if not same result. Not only does Cal have an elite defense but looks like they have a promising young QB in Fernando Mendoza. He got injured at the half and slowed down a bit in last week’s game but in the first half was almost perfect. I am not exaggerating on that he completed over 90% of his passes in that first half. He is something special and if RB Jaydn Ott can finally pick it up this offense will be a force to be reckoned with.

Ott is hands down Cal’s best player and an early round draft pick in the upcoming draft so if they can feed their best player and get him going it’s going to open up the pass game more for Mendoza. It’s a big line to cover but SDSU looked so bad last week and I think Cal is a better team than Oregon State so I think they cover.

I’m running at 60% so far—let’s keep this train rolling! Fingers crossed!