College football season is back! Last year, I was lucky enough to cohost FFSN’s college football gambling podcast Fortune Favors The Fans alongside Michael Macon, and we had great success with our weekly Power 5 Picks. This season, I decided to put those picks into written form for all of you still following my CFB gambling advice.

Here are my picks for Week 1:

Clemson vs. Georgia – UGA -13.5
UGA remains a powerhouse on both sides of the ball. They have everyone’s leading Heisman pick at quarterback in Carson Beck, along with a full slate of weapons around him. Covering 13.5 points against a fellow ranked team might seem like a tall order, but here’s why you should trust this pick.

Dabo Swinney refuses to embrace the modern era of the transfer portal. He still recruits well from high school, which is why his teams always start the season ranked in the top 10. However, his lack of experience on the roster has led to disappointments in big games since the transfer portal became a major recruiting tool in 2020. Over the past three seasons, he’s gone 6-4 in non-conference games. Three of those six wins are against FCS teams, two against Group of Five conference teams, and one in a rivalry game against South Carolina during a year when USC was unranked.

Until Dabo embraces the transfer portal, I can’t have faith in him in big games—especially against the number 1 ranked team in the country and the most dominant program in CFB over the past five seasons.

Miami vs. Florida – MIA -2.5
This game is at Florida, so normally, I’d hesitate to take the road team. But Miami is the real deal this year. This is by far the most talented team Mario Cristobal has had since taking over the Hurricanes in 2022. The roster is now entirely composed of his recruits, and the team has been fully turned over to his guys. This is what he did best at Oregon, and I think we’ll see it in full effect this season for the first time. Miami is my pick to take the ACC this season, especially after Florida State’s big upset in Week 0. I think Miami wins this game by two touchdowns, so -2.5 is easy money to me.

Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M – ND +3
I’m just flat out on A&M. After years of disappointment, despite incredible recruiting classes, I can’t put my money on them in big games. Yes, they have a new coach in Mike Elko, who turned Duke into a fun underdog story last year in the ACC, but it’s a tough ask for him to upset a Notre Dame team that Marcus Freeman has been building up for three years.

Notre Dame has a tough, well-coached, and disciplined defense that will be able to handle the road atmosphere in College Station. This pick is as much about not trusting Texas A&M as it is about trusting Notre Dame to get the job done.

New Mexico vs. Arizona – AZ -30
This one was easy for me, especially after watching New Mexico choke against an FCS team last week. Credit to Montana State—they are one of the top teams in the FCS this season, and most seasons, really. They’re a great program and have been for years, but New Mexico had a decent lead on them early at home and blew it. Arizona is far from an FCS team.

Two seasons ago, Arizona had the #1 high school recruiting class in the nation. Some of those players have left for the University of Washington, but a large portion remains. This is that class’s third season in college, and they’re ready to bust heads. Had the 12-team college football playoff made its debut last season instead of this season, Arizona could have potentially made it in. After a fantastic season last year, going 10-3 under Jedd Fisch, I think they’ll be in similar form even with new head coach Brent Brennan, who turned around a San Jose State program that hadn’t seen success in my entire lifetime before him.

It’s a big spread, but Arizona can cover it.

USC vs. LSU – LSU -4.5
This one was tough for me. USC was carried by Caleb Williams last season with no help on the defensive side of the ball. That’s typical for a Lincoln Riley-coached team: lots of offense, no defense. He’s turned USC into a recruiting powerhouse again, which I respect, but after watching the debacle that was the Trojans last season, it’s hard for me to think he can go into Vegas, even at a neutral site, and pull off an upset against a top-15 ranked SEC team. Miller Moss looked good in the Holiday Bowl last year, but it’s hard to replace Caleb Williams, and I think only he could win this upset. Also, let’s not forget that Brian Kelly can recruit too, landing some big names in the transfer portal from top CFB schools like Ohio State, Texas A&M, and Wisconsin.

The Late Night Chase
Last year on the podcast, I gave a couple of late-night chase picks for those of you who may not have done so well on Saturday and are looking to get at least a little money back in that 7:30 PM PT window (what used to be known as Pac-12 After Dark). Don’t worry—I’ve still got you covered! I’ll give at least one Late Night Chase every week along with my Power 5 picks. Most of these will be West Coast teams in the Big 10 or Big 12, or a Mountain West Conference game. Here’s this week’s:

Wyoming vs. Arizona State – WYO +6.5

Wyoming is an interesting program. They’re a run-heavy team that moves slowly but efficiently on offense. They’re the kind of team that will put together an 8-minute drive to score a TD. You’ll start watching the game, look down at the scoreboard after they score, and see 4 minutes left in the quarter and think, “What the hell! The first quarter is already over?” They play low-scoring games, typically with above-average defense. They can be frustrating to bet on because of how slow they move and how close they keep it, killing the clock, but in this spread, you get 6 points, so as long as Wyoming maintains a lead, you should be at ease.

To be honest, I don’t know a ton about Arizona State, but their recruiting class doesn’t jump off any pages to me, and they didn’t play very well last season. On top of that, it’s the #1 party school in the country, so can we trust the players aren’t going to be hungover after letting loose from the first week of school? Beats me.

Hope you all win this weekend. I’ll be back next week with more Power 5 Picks!