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3-and-Out: Thoughts on how the Steelers can improve as they enter the home stretch of the season
In this week’s “3-and-Out” article, we’re not looking at a game, specifically, but at the current state of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Here are three changes they can implement over the final four weeks of the season that could help them make the playoffs.
Throw the ball more often on 1st down
The Steelers have played 12 quarters of football since replacing Matt Canada as their offensive coordinator. In those 12 quarters, they’ve had the ball for 84 first down snaps. They’ve run it on 52 of those plays for 218 yards. That’s an average of 4.2 yards per play, which is slightly below the league average. They’ve thrown the ball 32 times, completing 26, for 255 yards. That’s a completion percentage of of 81.2 and an average of 7.96 yards per play, both of which are excellent.
Here’s more. Not counting kneel-downs, the Steelers had 30 possessions in those three games. They began 16 with a run, and had six three-and-outs on those drives. The other 14 drives began with a pass, on which they had just two three-and-outs. So, under the new play-calling regime, they are averaging nearly twice as many yards per play when they throw the ball on first down, and they end far less possessions with a three-and-out when they open with a pass. Why, then, aren’t they being more aggressive with their drive openers?
My suspicion is it’s because they don’t trust their quarterbacks. That’s logical, given the quality of play they’ve received at the position. The Steelers want to make four yards on first down to stay ahead of the chains, and they figure the best way to do so is to run the football. Unfortunately, neither the data nor the way teams are defending them support this approach.
Take the New England game, for example. The Patriots often loaded the box on first down and practically dared the Steelers to throw. They dropped a safety down to linebacker level and played one-high man coverage behind it. This allowed New England to create a +1 advantage against the run. The Steelers had six blockers to account for the expected six box defenders, or seven to block seven when they went to their bigger personnel groups. But they had no one to block the safety. That +1 equated to a host of zero, one and two yard gains as the Steelers repeatedly jammed the football into structures they couldn’t adequately block.
When Pittsburgh chose to throw on first down, they were often able to exploit these looks. With the second safety in the box, New England’s corners played with a decent cushion, allowing the Steelers to throw hitches and slants which set them up in favorable down-and-distances. But they seemed to lack the confidence in their passing game to attack more aggressively, and their use of play-action on these downs was virtually non-existent.
Heading into the home stretch of the season, Mike Sullivan and Eddie Faulkner would be wise to incorporate more quick throws on first down, and more boot plays that take advantage of Mitchell Trubisky’s athleticism. This won’t require an overhaul of the offense or the install of a bunch of new schemes. They just have to be more willing to pull the trigger. Incompletions are bad, but how much worse are they than two-yard runs into stacked boxes? The numbers suggest Pittsburgh would be wise to loosen up.
Ramp up the pass rush
The Steelers had 29 sacks through their first nine games for an average of over three per contest. In the last four weeks, in which Pittsburgh has gone 1-3, they’ve managed just seven.
The defense is not the reason for the team’s recent struggles. It’s hard to win when the offense is scoring just 13.5 points per game, which is their average over that stretch. But the Steelers have been unable to capitalize on opposing Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Jake Browning, a rusty Kyler Murray and Bailey Zappe at quarterback. None of those players set the world on fire against Pittsburgh. But they were decent, going a collective 75-120 for 778 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions. The hope was that Pittsburgh’s defense would simply overwhelm them. That was not the case.
Part of the reason is the Steelers have been gutted by injuries. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith are both banged up, and with backups to the backups in at linebacker and safety, they’ve been less willing to dial up some of the exotic blitzes they often use for fear it will put them out of position in coverage. That thinking makes sense. But Pittsburgh is best when they make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable. Zappe, in particular, looked as cool as Tom Brady standing in clean pocket for New England. That’s a problem.
The Steelers should start bringing heat again, beginning Saturday at Indianapolis. Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew, another backup, is not immune to throwing balls into coverage when he gets pressure in his face. With Joey Porter Jr. providing stellar coverage at one corner position and Patrick Peterson playing serviceably at the other, it’s worth rolling the dice to get after the passer. The Steelers will need an answer for opposing tight ends when they blitz, as both Trey McBride and Hunter Henry were thorns in their side the past two weeks. But Fitzpatrick’s presence should help mitigate that damage.
The time for playing in their fears is over. Pittsburgh is going to have to take some chances on both sides of the ball these last four weeks if they want to reach the playoffs.
Bring the locker room together
The final improvement has nothing to do with their play on the field. It may also be the most difficult to achieve.
As dysfunctional as their performance has been recently, Pittsburgh’s non-football histrionics have garnered far too much attention. The wide receivers have been the biggest culprits, creating more drama off the field than production on it. Heated arguments with teammates, a lack of hustle on the field, celebrating garbage-time touchdowns while down multiple scores, complaining publicly about not getting the football, failing to celebrate the success of teammates. It’s been one thing after another since mid-season.
The receivers haven’t been the only ones to project the image of a troubled locker room. While Canada was still the team’s coordinator, Kenny Pickett struggled to contain his frustration over both the play-calling and the scheme. So, too, did Najee Harris. Recently, Minkah Fitzpatrick told reporters that some players need to realize success doesn’t come simply by putting on a Steelers jersey. Others have suggested the team has not been adequately prepared heading into certain games, and that they’ve occasionally taken opponents lightly. Mike Tomlin, for his sake, is said to have urged Art Rooney II to fire Canada because Tomlin was on the verge of losing the locker room. Their play the past two weeks, in which Pittsburgh became the first team in league history with a winning record to lose consecutive games to opponents who were at least eight games under .500, is not likely to pull things together.
The biggest glue this team needs to bind itself most likely won’t come from Tomlin. It will come from the team’s veteran leaders. While players-only meetings have minimal effect on performance — the words spoken in those settings are well-meaning but quickly fade — one-on-one conversations tend to be more impactful. They show genuine as opposed to generic concern, and when done tactfully, can create bonds between players that translate to the field. It would be great to read that guys like Fitzpatrick, Watt, Allen Robinson and Cam Heyward are showing this type of leadership behind the scenes. It’s Tomlin’s team, and he bears the responsibility for their performance. But the players need to take ownership of the situation. Fast.
The Steelers like to talk about their culture, and that they’re built differently than most franchises. Now’s the time to put their money where their mouth is. Pittsburgh isn’t good enough on the field to win with a dysfunctional locker room. If they want to make the playoffs, they have to find a way to come together as a football team. That’s on the players as much as it’s on Tomlin.
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